Posted on 11/09/2007 4:51:18 PM PST by freespirited
House Republicans were hit with two additional retirements Friday, losing a veteran New Jersey member with a history of winning comfortably in a competitive district and an underachieving Wyoming lawmaker who ran uncomfortably close races in a conservative state.
So far, 16 House Republicans have announced their retirements, compared with only four Democrats.
Rep. Jim Saxton (R-N.J.) announced he would not be running for reelection, giving Republicans another difficult open seat to defend in a highly competitive and expensive southern New Jersey district.
In a statement, Saxton said health concerns played a prominent role in his decision. He has been treated for chronic sciatica, a painful back and leg condition, and has recovered from prostate cancer.
"Although I had intended to run in 2008 and was planning a strong campaign, recent developments regarding my health have prompted me to make this decision,” Saxton said in a statement. “I plan to serve out the remainder of my current term in the 110th Congress. I will continue to receive medical treatment, and my health care providers have indicated the prognosis is, in fact, very positive.”
Democrats already have a highly-touted candidate in state Sen. John Adler, who ran unsuccessfully against Saxton in 1990 and formed an exploratory committee for the U.S. Senate seat in 2002. He already has banked $229,000 for the election — much of it transferred from his idle Senate campaign account.
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee recently targeted Saxton for his vote against overriding a presidential veto of children’s health insurance legislation, launching radio ads and robo-calls in his district. The ads told listeners to “call Congressman Saxton and tell him to stand with kids, not George Bush.”
Republicans counter that the statewide election held this week, where Republicans picked up an open legislative seat, shows the Republican brand still is strong within Saxton’s district.
Saxton’s district is in highly competitive territory. It is a prototypical “9/11 district,” as it gave a narrow victory to President Bush in 2004 (51 percent) after comfortably voting for Al Gore in 2000.
"In last Tuesday's elections, Republicans in Burlington County posted impressive victories, including winning an open State Senate race. We believe we hold an advantage in this Republican leaning seat,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain.
But competing in Southern New Jersey, which covers the Philadelphia media market, is a high-cost proposition for the cash-strapped committee. The NRCC only has $1.6 million cash on hand, and will be hard-pressed to offer significant funding for the party’s eventual nominee.
Two potential Republican candidates for the seat are state Sen. Diane Allen, who was a television anchor in Philadelphia, and Middlesex County sheriff Jean Stanfield.
Meanwhile, Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-Wyo.) will be announcing that she won’t run for reelection at tomorrow morning’s Wyoming central GOP committee meeting, according to a Republican source familiar with her intentions.
Cubin has spent a significant amount of time in Wyoming over the past several months, spending time with her husband, whose health has been deteriorating.
But her retirement gives Republicans added optimism that they will be able to hold onto her House seat in heavily Republican Wyoming. The state gave Bush 69 percent of the vote, but Cubin only won reelection by 1,012-vote margin last year against Internet executive Gary Trauner.
Trauner is running again, but will face a tougher time against a new opponent.
A long list of Republicans are considering entering the race. Leading candidates include: U.S. Attorney Matt Mead and former state treasurer Cynthia Lummis.
State Rep. Colin Simpson, the son of former U.S. Sen. Alan Simpson (R-Wyo.), is another possible candidate, though he may prefer to remain in Wyoming instead of pursuing a congressional bid.
Rats-Sinking Ship.
Cubin does the right thing. Saxton is a bit more troubling. If State Sen. Diane Allen is the nominee, they might as well give the seat to the rodents. She’s a Connie Morella type.
John Doolittle, Don Young, Ted Stevens — DO THE RIGHT THING !
Don’t be surprised if Cynthia Loomis runs to succeed Cubin. As for Saxton, a Rodent state Senator is already running, and the district is trending to the Rodents politically.
Likely Hillary had their FBI files.
Saxton used to be more conservative. Morella was a lifelong ‘rat running Repub like Bloomberg, so another one of her would not be good.
Any conservative American, with no skelatins .. could win ... I want to believe.
The Saxton district apparently is one of the most historically Republican in the state. Although there have been numerous redistrictings (previously the 13th (1983-93); previously the 6th (1967-93), previously the 1st (prior to 1967)), I couldn’t find a Democrat in the seat since the 19th century. It will be quite disturbing if we lose it.
Well, the demograhpics there are changing. John Kerry nearly won it in 2004.
Interesting that you mentioned Diane Allen:
http://cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?parm1=5&docID=news-000002625532
Can she beat Adler?
I have family in that district and the one just adjacent to it to the north... although the bulk of them are now buried. New Jersey is somewhat an ancestral state of mine, my earliest direct ancestor in the U.S. landed here during the Revolutionary War... a Hessian mercenary recruited by the English. :-P
It’s still a GOP-leaning district, even absent Saxton. The question is whether she’ll have a free ride in the primary. If she does, it will benefit her. We’re going to need fully-funded candidates, though.
“She’s a Connie Morella type.”
That bad, huh?!! ;)
Saxton’s seat is a permanent loss for Republicans.
It would take stupendous amounts of street level campaign support for a Republican to win that seat.
Great news out of WY, but bad news in South Jersey. The posted article actually did a good job describing the political situation in Saxton’s CD, which is refreshing. I think we need a pro-life, pro-gun, environmentalist Republican with deep roots in the district to hold it in an open-seat race. Diane Allen does *not* fit the bill, and even if she could win she’d make a terrible Congresswoman.
Dropping like flies. We may lose more seats to retirement than outright election defeats.
Could be. Too bad because this election would be the time to hold on when the party is weak.
Allen is militantly anti-death penalty. She was hammered in 2002 when she ran for the US Senate because she allegedly would oppose the death penalty for Osama. That’s extremist even by liberal standards.
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