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Rudy vs. Mitt: State Polling and the GOP Race
Dry Fly Politics ^ | November 9, 2007

Posted on 11/09/2007 6:52:05 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah

In the race for the GOP Presidential nomination there are two real frontrunners and three nipping at the formers’ heels. It certainly appearst that either Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney are going to be the Republican nominee. In the comments section of an article on Race42008, there is an interesting discussion going on about the respective strategies for winning the nomination of both Rudy and Mitt.

Rudy’s strategy is a national one. He views February 5th as a national primary; a day in which truly significant states with large numbers of delegates are voting. Ultimately Rudy’s plan is now to win Florida on January 29th to give him momentum and to ride the wave into a sweep of California, Texas, New Jersey, and New York (among others).

On the other hand, Mitt’s strategy is of a more traditional nature. He believes that victories in the early states are essential. Victories in Iowa and New Hampshire will propel him to victories in Wyoming, Michigan, Nevada, and South Carolina. He is further betting on this momentum to improve his standing nationally and to propel him to a win in Florida and, thus, a sweep in February.

So ultimately the race comes down to Florida. Or so it is being argued on Race42008, some Rudy supporters are even slyly implying that Giuliani has all but conceded Iowa and New Hampshire to Romney. Ultimately, like any race, it is a question of momentum and movement.

So considering all of this, I wondered what the polls are saying in regards to this momentum and movement. Below are charts of polling in various states, what patterns do you see that are consistent throughout? (For larger charts visit Pollster.com)

--snip--

(Excerpt) Read more at mydryfly.wordpress.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: familyvalues; mitt; mittromney; romney
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--snip--

What are the consistencies? In every poll Romney is moving up and Rudy is either stale or going down. Let’s look at Florida, as this is seems to be the key state, Rudy is taking a huge dive there and Romney is moving up fast. Couple this is with Thompson’s dying campaign and momentum from likely victories in earlier states, and Mitt’s prospects for winning Florida sure look good.

--snip--

1 posted on 11/09/2007 6:52:06 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah
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To: Abbeville Conservative; asparagus; Austin1; bcbuster; bethtopaz; BlueAngel; Bluestateredman; ...

• Send FReep Mail to Unmarked Package to get [ON] or [OFF] the Mitt Romney Ping List


2 posted on 11/09/2007 6:54:16 PM PST by Canticle_of_Deborah (Romney Republican)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

Two. Dreadful. Liberal. RINOs.


3 posted on 11/09/2007 6:54:23 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~~~Jihad Fever -- Catch It !~~~ (Backup tag: "Live Fred or Die"))
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

Do you think George and Lenore of approve of Mitt’s “conservatism”? Those two were even to the left of Prescott Bush, weren’t they?


4 posted on 11/09/2007 6:58:29 PM PST by Theodore R. ( Cowardice is still forever!)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

What might happen is that the sheeple vote for Romney not knowing about his Mormonism. Many who voted for him in the primaries will then switch to HRC after they learn that Romney is Mormon. Might happen, as I think many have real reservations about a Mormon as president even though they may not tell their neighbor that.


5 posted on 11/09/2007 7:00:20 PM PST by Theodore R. ( Cowardice is still forever!)
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To: fieldmarshaldj

Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment: speak no ill of a fellow Republican.


6 posted on 11/09/2007 7:01:05 PM PST by TheLion (How about "Comprehensive Immigration Enforcement," for a change)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

The question is who can gather the most supporters from the opposition? If you took a poll that asks Republicans if you had only 2 choices, Rudy or Romney, who would you pick? Romney would win in a landslide. Giuliani is the most left wing candidate. All the others are to the right of him. So a lot of the Fred, Huckabee, McCain, Hunter supporters will back Romney, and all of them will outnumber Giuliani.


7 posted on 11/09/2007 7:01:33 PM PST by Romneyfor President2008
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To: Romneyfor President2008

Well I thank God I don’t have just two choices!

LOL.

There are some fools out there who try to convince us that this is down to a 2 man race!


8 posted on 11/09/2007 7:06:04 PM PST by JRochelle (I think marriage should be between a man and woman, and a woman, and a woman. Mitt Romney)
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To: TheLion
Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment: speak no ill of a fellow Republican.

An admirable rule confidently, proudly broken by the Romney Sleaze Machine on a roughly daily basis around here.

9 posted on 11/09/2007 7:07:31 PM PST by Petronski ("Willard, you can’t buy South Carolina. You can’t even rent it.”)
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To: Theodore R.

Anyone who would not vote for Mitt Romney BECAUSE, and only because, he is a Mormon is in my opinion, a bigoted idiot.

P.S. I am not a Mormon.


10 posted on 11/09/2007 7:07:34 PM PST by Signalman
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah
National polls mean nothing at this point - the public isn't paying attention. State polls mean little.

Instead look to polls published starting after Thanksgiving in the states with primaries between New Years and the first week of February.

11 posted on 11/09/2007 7:07:52 PM PST by Thud
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To: Petronski

I take it you are not a republican but a troll paid for by some other candidate. There was a reason Reagan had this commandment. I think it would be sort of pointless to explain it to you.


12 posted on 11/09/2007 7:09:31 PM PST by TheLion (How about "Comprehensive Immigration Enforcement," for a change)
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To: Theodore R.
Many who voted for him in the primaries will then switch to HRC after they learn that Romney is Mormon

I am not following you here. Hillary is not exactly known for being such a devout Christian. And look at her husband. Some people may have trouble with his religion but they won't flock to Hillary because of it.

13 posted on 11/09/2007 7:09:50 PM PST by plain talk
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To: TheLion
"Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment: speak no ill of a fellow Republican."

I haven't spoken ill of Duncan Hunter, Fred Thompson's fellow Republican. Only exposing the liberal RINO phonies pretending to be Republicans. BTW, Reagan had to face one of those liberal RINO phonies in the 1966 CA GOP primary of the kind you're championing now. San Francisco Mayor George Christopher. The media's candidate. The annointed candidate. Reagan had to pull the gloves off to defeat that liberal, lest he face the rodent incumbent Pat Brown and go down in flames because there was no ideological difference between Christopher and Brown. You might study up some history, Hoss.

14 posted on 11/09/2007 7:10:13 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~~~Jihad Fever -- Catch It !~~~ (Backup tag: "Live Fred or Die"))
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To: Bobkk47
Anyone who would not vote for Mitt Romney BECAUSE, and only because, he is a Mormon is in my opinion, a bigoted idiot.

Well, it's a good thing for Romney that there aren't many bigoted idiots in this country, right?

15 posted on 11/09/2007 7:10:49 PM PST by tear gas (Because of the 22nd Amendment, we are losing President. Bush. Can we afford to lose him now?)
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To: Romneyfor President2008

Romney’s record has more in common with Giuliani’s politics then anyone else running on the GOP side. Mitt’s plan to give Americans nationalized health care makes him no better than Hillary.

NO liberals, NO RINO`s ... No Rudy, NO Romney!


16 posted on 11/09/2007 7:10:59 PM PST by Reagan Man (FUHGETTABOUTIT Rudy....... Conservatives don't vote for liberals!)
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To: TheLion; fieldmarshaldj

“Reagan’s Eleventh Commandment: speak no ill of a fellow Republican.”

It is definitely OK when a candidate phony is claiming the mantle of Reagan and using his name in terrible ways.

And I am “adamant” about that.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Elx3UWmyAY4


17 posted on 11/09/2007 7:11:02 PM PST by ansel12 (Proud father of a 10th Mountain veteran. Proud son of a WWII vet. Proud brother of vets, Airborne)
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah

Yep. Romney is solid. But he does have baggage. Thompson’s poll numbers are going down for some reason. We’ll see.


18 posted on 11/09/2007 7:11:21 PM PST by plain talk
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To: Petronski

You ever notice the RINO left utilize that “rule” as a PC way to stifle criticism of them by Conservatives ? Positively Stalinist.


19 posted on 11/09/2007 7:12:02 PM PST by fieldmarshaldj (~~~Jihad Fever -- Catch It !~~~ (Backup tag: "Live Fred or Die"))
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To: Canticle_of_Deborah
Romney vs. Giuliani all hinges on Florida. Which color line is preferable. I would go with brown, as it shows a steady climb. That is Romney, who will be getting a likely boost relative to Giuliani in Iowa, NH, Michigan and South Carolina.


20 posted on 11/09/2007 7:17:06 PM PST by Plutarch
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