Posted on 11/14/2007 4:56:31 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Edited on 11/14/2007 5:12:33 PM PST by Admin Moderator. [history]
It's a big day for political TV ads, and in the case of Fred Thompson, he's got great timing. On the same day Rudy Giuliani releases his first TV ad, and the day Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D-N.Y.) decides to withdraw his plan to give illegal immigrants access to driver's licenses, the former Tennessee senator releases a 30-second spot called, "No Amnesty." It starts airing across Iowa today.
(Excerpt) Read more at blog.washingtonpost.com ...
IMHO, there needs to be one anti-Rudy candidate standing (sooner, rather than too late) and it will either be Mitt (because FR is a small subset of the general Republican voting public who are not as aware of the issues or past positions of the candidates) or Fred.
President Bush received 62,040,610 votes in the 2004 Presidential election. Duncan Hunter has 1,126 votes to Fred's 1,362 on the current FR poll. If DH doesn't win here, he certainly won't win out there. If your choice is between Rudy, Mitt and Fred, how do you vote?
I don’t have a crystal ball, nor would it work with voters. Your Intrade is crap, and you should know it.
***And yet you say so conclusively that Fred will be president. Pick your poison, either go with an acknowledged tool for determining futures percentages or your grammatical backtracking from certainty.
Duncan Hunter can win. And he needs guys like you on his team. Maybe you should just pray about it.
I can’t help the direction that the dialog takes on FR. Several months ago I offerred to have a Fred vs Hunter thread so we could post facts and agree to be polite. No takers.
Those are way out of date. Things change faster than that.
“I can sense this race turning around. Does anyone else feel it?”
No. There’s too many politically ignorant women who will vote for Romney just because he’s the best looking male candidate.
Fred is now anti-illegal despite having almost no senate voting record to prove it,voters would find it difficult to believe his anti-immigration credentials.
ping
He’s a lot more credible on the immigration issue than Romney is on abortion.
Illegal invaders is a KEY issue with Americans - native born Americans as well as naturalize legal immigrants.
Its the issue which the Republicans ignored to their dismay in the mid-term elections and its the issue which can destroy any chance for the Dems to get a candidate elected in 2008 if the Repubs are smart enough to recognize it.
Apparently Tancredo, Romney, Thompson and Hunter have. As for the others, time will tell.
There are leading indicators and lagging indicators. The lagging indicators include COT (Commitment of Traders -- the Commercial folks) on data, and it appears your Intrade is going by that. Doesn't work that way. BTW, COT data only comes out every two weeks, which is different than what you are showing; however, it's the same thing. You are using a lagging indicator to show who is winning the primary race.
"Pick your poison, either go with an acknowledged tool for determining futures percentages or your grammatical backtracking from certainty."
What does that mean?
I don't know if Fred Thompson is going to win the nomination, but I sure as heck am working on it.
Here's a few other little clues for you. It's called PAST.
P = Psychology (emotions)
A = Asset management, or I guess you could say "Watch your arse management
S = Selection
T = Timing
I do believe Sen. Thompson has all of the above.
Oops. Forgot the quote marks after “management.” That’s just in case you say I’m grammatically incorrect.
He has time to talk about the fence, but he doesn’t have time to talk about social security [entitlement reform], I haven’t heard him talk about judges much at all [not a passion of his], he was a johnny come lately on Rush Limbaugh, federalism/limited government, energy security and energy issues, how to make the government more effective, how to get the government to pass an audit, Hunter has not spoken on how to make the government more efficient and stay within the budget, does he have anything to say on healthcare and how to improve it, how to keep our government computer systems safe from foreign governments, internet taxes, how to improve our educational systems.
I don’t know that he has said anything yet about earmark reform, and that is an ethics issue. Anything on sanctuary cities? Gas taxes? What is he going to do to help with eminent domain [seizure of private property]? Is he going to restore President Reagan’s executive order that Bill Clinton got rid of [think it was a pro life one]?
I know in general how he feels about some things like the second amendment, but is he specific about anything or what he could do besides the fence of course. Hunter is very non specific which is part of why IMHO he is a johnny come lately. He’s had plenty of time to do this, he has a website. If you want reporters and moderators to ask more questions in debates, it is a good idea to be up to speed and talk about more issues to show you’re qualified for the presidency. He hasn’t shown me anything yet.
I think he is conservative, but what would he do? I could vote for him but to think that he is the best or the most conservative or the most qualified he needs to put himself out there and say something of substance besides the fence. He isn’t specific enough for anyone to know.
Answered on the efficacy thread, where it belongs.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts?page=57#57
Sheesh, I was way off on the time when I posted to you, and you posted to me at least a week later when I wasn’t even here. So we missed each others’ love letters.
I especially love this from your previous post to me:
****
Dropouts from 2008 Presidential Race. Jan 2008
DROPOUT.JAN08.EDWARDS
John Edwards to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 35.0 49.0 35.0 15 -7.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.MCCAIN
John McCain to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 10.0 30.0 10.0 31 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.HUCKABEE
Mike Huckabee to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 10.1 29.8 14.9 27 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.OBAMA
Barack Obama to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M - 10.0 5.0 10 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.CLINTON
Hillary Clinton to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M - 10.0 1.0 0 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.GIULIANI
Rudy Giuliani to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 5.0 10.0 7.0 40 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.ROMNEY
Mitt Romney to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 8.0 25.0 6.0 20 0
DROPOUT.JAN08.(F)THOMPSON
Fred Thompson to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 35.0 99.0 40.0 70 +12.0
DROPOUT.JAN08.PAUL
Ron Paul to drop out of 2008 Presidential race on/before 31 Jan 2008 M 10.0 15.0 15.0 24 +5.2
Here’s a snapshot from Intrade yesterday. There is evidence that Hunter is gaining ground in Iowa.
****
Although I do like Duncan Hunter, he doesn’t have a chance in Hades of winning the Republian nomination, but Fred Thompson does.
Tomorrow will be an interesting day.
Oh, BTW, I was born in Iowa and have a lot of cousins still there. Insider info? I’m not telling.
My great-grandfather was a hog farmer. In those days hogs weren’t bought and sold on the market in Chicago, but corn was. He was a millionaire during the depression by buying and selling corn. Just thought you’d like a little of my background — or not.
Tomorrow will be an interesting day.
***Iowans usually surprise us. I’m hoping they really do value authenticity.
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