Posted on 11/15/2007 8:05:25 AM PST by eastsider
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Rudy Giuliani’s national lead growing in the race for the Republican Presidential Nomination. Giuliani attracts 28% support from Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide while four other candidates are bunched in a virtual tie for second place. Mitt Romney earns 13% of the vote. John McCain, Fred Thompson, and Mike Huckabee each attract 11%. Ron Paul's is the top choice for 6% and no other Republican candidate reaches 2% (see recent daily numbers).
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
We have to sell Conservatism all over again...
Indeed...
And the buyers are fickle and easily scared...
Because the daily tracking poll covers four days's results, in order to be at 18% by Monday, Fred either would have to poll 18% each day for the next four days, or to average 18% over the next four days (i.e., Thursday through Sunday).
I'm counting heavily on the margin of error : )
Of course it’s not enough time for that kind of effect. It’s just that Team Mitt had their noses so bent out of shape yesterday over Weyrich’s tantrum that I couldn’t help but take another jab. Chalk up my comment to a cruel sense of humor.
I agree Barbour is a good Gov. and a good choice, but I think they’ll be afraid the media will spin him as a “Boss Hogg” southern governor with his accent and all. I know its stupid, but you just know the idiots in the media will play that angle up. They’ll try to make him out to be a reincarnation of a Confederate General or something.
Ticks me off just thinking about it.
Mark Sanford. Bet on it.
Then why the DROP in Fred's support? And why the large numbers of undecided?
“If” Rudy is nominated, the phrase “I will not vote for Guiliani” will be read here over and over again.
To then expect those same people to vote for Senate or House candidates from the homes they are avoiding the polls from is not reality....
LLS
“Or maybe we should let the liberals have the Republican party, and the conservatives can move to another. It wouldn’t be long until the Republican party ceased to exist.”
I’m not a Rudy supporter, I’m with Fred, but I know some very conservative people who support Rudy, and there is no way to “purge” them, they aren’t going anywhere.
“Some conservatives they are, then, if they’re willing to stay home and concede the whole ball of wax just because they don’t get the nominee they want.”
And that is “why” a focus on Senate and House races should happen, if the nominee is unpalatable for Conservatives that doesn’t mean we should not look for Congressional Candidates who are Conservatives.
“Rudy’s ceiling is 30%. That’s it.”
Isn’t it reasonable to think that Rudy will draw some % of the undecideds, and as some of the other candidates drop out, shouldn’t he also get a % of that support as well?
Regarding the putative efficacy of attacking Hillary hard and often as the key to a Republican victory in November 2008, I offer the following counter opinion that was posted on Elephant Biz on October 10:
The Fix poses a question:What is the effect on Clinton's campaign -- if any -- of being the focus of repeated Republican attacks in these debates? Is there a short-term (nomination fight) versus a long-term (general election) effect? If so, are they different?
The Biz thinks that repeated attacks by the Republican candidates on Clinton only serves to strengthen her position overall, both long term and short term.
In the short term, it helps her because it reinforces her aura of inevitability. Afterall, if the Republicans are going after her this early, they all think she is going to be the nominee. It plays well with the Democratic base who have never had a favorable impression of Republicans personal attacks anyway, and it will move them to identify more closely with the victim, in this case Clinton.
In the long term, we all know that the Republican race will eventually go negative. Once Clinton the Inevitable has the nomination sewed up, she can repeatedly harangue the Republican Party while the Republicans are still quarreling amongst themselves. Additionally, the Republicans bringing up some of her positions, such as her stance on Iraq, may actually help her in the general election because her stance is what the majority of the country actually believes anyway.
“The country clubbers are still in charge of the party, and they only give in to the conservative voters when the conservative voters manage to get their act together and force them to.”
My biggest worry too.
It’s still too early to go by polls. What worries me is that the open borders Bush administration will do nothing to help a conservative.
Moreover, on our side, it is exactly what our primary voters want to hear: "how will you beat Hillary?" (and, to a lesser extent, "How will you beat all the Dems?") Now, if by some stroke, Hillary is NOT the candidate, our guys will quickly adjust. But if she is, the only chance we have is to guarantee that those 45% negatives get over 50% by election day.
“Mitt down 4 percentage points since yesterday’s scurrilous accusation that Fred bribed the NRLC for its endorsement.”
I don’t think that has been in play long enough to affect the polls. I am surprized that Thompson hasn’t started to climb with the NRTL endorsement.
Actually, these numbers say to me that Guiliani has a solid base of support at around 25%. About 25% is undecided and the last 50% is split between Romney, Thompson, McCain, and Huckabee. These four, at this snapshot in time, are virtually tied.
It really is time for some of the smaller players like Hunter (no matter how qualified a candidate he may be) to do what is best for the party and drop out and throw his support to whomever he thinks is best to get the nomination. This would help break up this logjam.
Otherwise, we can expect a Guiliani victory, IMO.
Generously, however, he might get 30% of the undecideds -- 6% -- bringing his total to 36%. And he might even get 30% of the two candidates with significant numbers who are likely to drop out -- McCain at 14+%, and Huckabee at 8+% -- bringing Rudy's total to 43%. That's still under 50%.
I can't see him getting much at all from Tancredo and Hunter, and I expect Thompson and Romney to stay in all the way to what I now expect to be a brokered convention.
THIS IS NOT A POLL OF CONSERVATIVES, “LIKELY REPUBLICAN VOTERS” CONSERVATIVES ARE LIKELY “PRIMARY” VOTERS.
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