I will fosterize Obama, if need be!
Posted on 11/21/2007, 2:34:19 PM by .cnI redruM
As Barack Obama gains on Hillary Rodham Clinton from the left in Iowa, the GOP gains on her from the right nationwide. Hillary’s triangulation scheme looks far less dominating than it did two months ago. She may be on the apex of an isosceles triangle, but the base may be too narrow for her perch to offer much comfort. Survey USA recently polled Oregon, and the results are not what “She Who Demands Media Obedience” would have dialed up.
To be challenged in the primaries by a candidate appealing feverishly to the hard core base of her party is no problem. Obama may actually win Iowa, but he cedes geographic advantage to Hillary Rodham Clinton in both the Deep South and the Frigid Northeast. Get him out of the Midwest and away from the agrarian populists and minority activists, and his candidacy smells of overcooked toast.
What has to concern Hillary more is what people outside the Democratic Party think. She has her nomination nailed down solid. She just needs a few votes from outside the subset of voters who are registered Democrats, if she wants to mount a winning drive to The White House.
Oregon gives an early signal that this may not materialize. RealClearPolitics compares Barack Obama’s numbers to Hillary Rodham Clinton. Each candidate is compared to four GOP candidates; John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee.
Hillary only makes it to 50% against Mike Huckabee. She has both a mean and median vote percentage of 48%. Obama only falls below 50% against John McCain. He scores a mean total 0f 50.5% and perhaps, more encouragingly for him, he gets a median of 51.5%.
Oregon offers an interesting barometer of how a Democrat should fare in a slightly Democratic State. John Kerry took a hair over 51% of the vote there in 2004. Al Gore took 47% in 2000; edging George W. Bush by 7,000 votes.
Oregon thus offers a comparison of how hard the Democrats will have to work to crayon the State of Oregon blue in 2008. Hillary will probably have to set up infrastructure and obligate money. Obama can visit two or three times and make sure he stays fairly well liked in Corvallis and Portland.
The significance of this plays into the strategy of how each party counts electoral votes when organizing their Presidential Campaigns. A candidate that puts away base states early in September can roll a financial and organizational juggernaut over Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. A candidate having to reassure the base in a state the other party hasn’t snared since 1984, works at a comparative disadvantage in both resources and momentum.
If this result sustains in Oregon and recurs in other light blue states, Hillary Clinton becomes vulnerable to having to wage a 35 state campaign against a Republican who really only has to select fifteen or twenty targets of best opportunity. The GOP may very well take away all the swing states against Hillary Clinton, while she struggles on The Oregon Trail.
Only if the Repubs nominate a candidate that conservatives Republicans and conservative democrats want to vote for.
This is another poll that shows how false the “only Giuliani can beat her” thing is.
Once again, it looks like McCain is the guy that does best.
That’s probably 80% name ID, though.
I will fosterize Obama, if need be!
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