Posted on 11/25/2007 10:09:56 AM PST by dano1
I don't see any grassroots enthusiasm for Fred. Fred does have the rank-and-file Republican support and the usual pro-Republican & conservative organizations that'll endorse him if they haven't already.
It'll be interesting to see if this support will carry over to the grassroots. But FReeper's codercpc's analysis is dead accurate. It's looking more and more like Fred! is becoming the Wesley Clark of the election.
Regarding the polls, although Fred is still narrowly in second place on the RCP rolling average of national GOP polls, he is only a few points ahead of Romney and McCain there, so it may really be a statistical three-way tie for second place nationally. It also looks like Fred has lost nearly half his national support in the last few months.
I don't know what the scenario would be for a Fred victory at this point, but finishing third in Iowa really does seem important for Fred now. I suppose that is why Fred went after Giuliani this weekend, since Giuliani is now in third and slightly ahead of Fred in Iowa on the RCP poll average for Iowa.
Previously I think the conventional wisdom was that Fred could afford to write off Iowa. Now Fred seems to really need third-place (the coach fare ticket) out of Iowa.
No.
While I tend to agree with your assessment, I'm at a total loss to figure out why.
As Extremely pointed out, I don't see the grass roots support for him that I did in the early going. I was very impressed with his support, but the candidate himself has not lived up to the hype. We will see if he can turn it around. But in the early States it is looking dim.
If the top five leading Pubbie candidates are relative close in the polls going into the primaries I fear that the conservative vote will be split leading to the emergence of a RINO candidate to carry the party banner. Who will emerge as the leading “conservative” alternative is an unanswered question.
For Huckabee the social conservatives have found their man, and they are willing to overlook his more liberal leanings.
For Rudy supporters, the WOT and electability are #1 priorities, and they are willing to overlook his social issues.
For Romney, his "flip flopping" is overshadowed by his executive experience, and his outstanding organizational skills.
For Fred his federalism stance attracts those willing to overlook his lackadaisical campaign style.
And for John McCain it is true loyalty to the man, his patriotism, and his electability. People are willing to overlook his "backstabbing" of the past 8 years.
That is the only way I can explain anyone supporting any of the candidates, that all -IMO- have huge liabilities along with their positives.
I agree. And I think at the time this appeared to be a reasonable expectation.
Fred may have been lulled into overconfidence by his early success in the polls.
FRed will take 2nd in Iowa. I’m absolutely convinced of it.
FRed will take South Carolina by TEN POINTS, at least. I am absolutely convinced of it.
I’m at a loss too!
I agree. All the candidates have positives and negatives and it just comes down to how one ranks the issues.
However I think that anyone for whom pro-life is the main issue should be sending the Huckabee campaign money, because for them it just doesn't get much better.
“For Huckabee the social conservatives have found their man, and they are willing to overlook his more liberal leanings”
Don’t bet the farm on it.
Hey there! How the heck are ya??
Glad to see we agree about Thompson/Hunter.
You're dreaming. I’m absolutely convinced of it.
Thompson is positioned perfectly to sweep up after the two top rinos spittle each other into oblivion. The media pissants want the Republican Party to self-destruct with a rino named Rudomney. Fred and Duncan willbecome the leadership for this nation ... and the fear in media is beautiful to witness!
I don’t think FDT is out of it because Time says he is. I do think he’s running out of time to get out in front. I thought after he entered the race he would make it a 2 man primary between himself and Rudy. I was really expecting him to suck the air out every one else, leaving it a 2 man race, but so far that’s not how it’s worked. Fred hasn’t caught on as of yet, and in fact has recently been trending down, while Mitt, Huckabee, and even McCain have been trending up. I think it likely FDT carries a few southern states and a couple of mountain states, but I don’t think he can pull off the nomination without a serious comeback, and I just don’t see that happening.
Why is it, according to media articles of late, that everyone else has "plenty of time left to rev up their campaigns and spring ahead of the pack", except for Fred?
I guess media can't attack Fred on issues, so they are resorting to attacking how he is percieved by planting the suggestion he is somehow slower than the rest, doddling behind.
I am not betting on anything this election, I was just trying to explain the lure of certain candidates to certain demographics.
Let's face it, if abortion, gay marriage, and life issues are your number one concern, Mike Huckabee is the best choice. Rudy fails on them all, Romney is a johnny come lately, and in my opinion (and obviously many other pro lifers opinion) Freds federalism answer is just not good enough.
I am not supporting Mike Huckabee, and for me I decided that this elections social issues would be taking a back seat. But having said that I agree with Fred on almost all of his federalism ideas, but when it comes to abortion, regardless of his record, when he says "States have the right to make decisions that even I, Fred Thompson disagrees with" that to me is no different than a pro choice candidate saying that the mother has the right to make a decision that they disagree with.
To me saying the State has a right to decide if a baby should live or die, is no different than a mother having that same right. In the end the outcome is the same, we have a dead baby, it is just who consents to it.
It may be the politically expedient thing to say, and I know intellectually that an amendment at this time would be futile, but I just don't like his answer, and I am sure many other pro lifers don't either.
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