Posted on 11/25/2007 10:09:56 AM PST by dano1
Actor and former Senator Fred Thompson’s candidacy has always been one of the most interesting in the 2008 GOP Presidential nomination sweepstakes. You can’t quite say he was drafted but there was a virtual clamor by some to get him in the race.
After all, he was the perfect anti-Giuliani, the anti-Romney, the anti-McCain and reminded many in his plainspoken manner, with his ability to communicate and his acting background of a former actor and California Governor who made a mockery of the conventional wisdom (even on the fate of the Cold War) all through his career. He was to have been the real conservative amid a field of perceived conservative pretenders.
So Thompson had his moment in history where he was literally called into the political realm.
Now the question is: did he wait too long? And did he miss his moment in history? Time Magazine says the answer is most likely YES.
Fred Thompson is finally getting the hang of running for president. In the last few weeks, the former actor and senator from Tennessee has sharpened his message, picked up the pace of his campaign, leveled some clean shots at his opponents, cut two effective television ads, received one very big endorsement and issued some of the most substantial policy proposals of any of the Republican contenders.
But it may be too late.
The rationale behind Thompson’s candidacy was simple, and sound: in a G.O.P. primary that glaringly lacked a conservative who was both true and viable, Thompson would enter late and immediately be embraced by all those Republicans who had been unhappy with their options. Then he would roll to the nomination.
Yet, as Time notes, it hasn’t quite worked out that way and it’s due to timing — someone missing, perhaps by just a beat, their elusive moment in history:
It hasn’t turned out as planned, primarily, say Republicans both inside and outside the Thompson operation, because he waited too long to get in the race — and then, once he did get in, ambled through his first month as an official candidate as if his heart wasn’t in it. The result: in national polls that once had Thompson running even or better with front-runner Rudy Giuliani, Thompson now trails by double-digits. More troubling for Thompson is the emergence of Mike Huckabee, the former Baptist minister and Arkansas governor who is now statistically tied for first with Mitt Romney in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll of likely Iowa GOP caucus voters. Huckabee’s sudden surge of support among conservatives threatens to shred the rationale behind Thompson’s candidacy.
For that reason, the Thompson campaign has been on the attack lately on just about every topic that might resonate with conservatives, going after, among other things, “Huckabee’s liberal immigration record,” as one Thompson spokesman put it, and the fact that Huckabee raised taxes and increased spending as governor. Thompson has even raised questions about Huckabee’s multiple run-ins with the Arkansas Ethics Commission during his 10-year stint as governor over issues ranging from how he paid himself with campaign cash in the early 1990s to his claim in 1998 that some $70,000 in furniture donated to the governor’s mansion actually belonged to him and his wife. (Most of the 14 ethics complaints against Huckabee were small bore, but he did receive five admonitions from the Commission and $1,000 in fines).
Time notes that Thompson’s campaign now seems to be revved up and he seems to have a rhythm. And, the magazine goes on to say, it’s truly a pity for Thompson’s many supporters — many of them traditional conservatives who felt he could be the logical and widely supported heir to former President Ronald Reagan (and by implication the late Senator Barry Goldwater) — is that the former “Law and Order” actor has actually lived up to many of his expectations on the stump…recently.
Time doesn’t go into, however, Thompson’s early performances which were quite dreary and earned pans, even from some political folks who were rooting for him. By many reports, some early speeches fell flat and if his intent was to win over the GOP’s conservative base he seemed to be Gaffe City.
The fact is, in this modern age of You Tubes and weblogs that instantly cover, comment and/or run videos of public appearances, a candidate needs a bit of rehearsal time — just as top comedians needed to work their way up to headliners. But they are given little.
So the time they get to stub their toes is in the earliest moments.
Thompson entered a bit late so his toe-stubs got wider coverage and were glommed onto by the mainstream media and his political foes who pointed to his early efforts as a sign that the Thompson candidacy was more hype than conservative help.
In this media age, Thompson could have shot to the top but he would have to have had to immediately siezed his historical moment. He didn’t. And now his product may be better, but consumers have tried others and found them adequate — and they don’t show strong signs they’ll switch.
There are others in American history who lost their moments.
In 1992 Ross Perot entered the fray in the race between the first George Bush and Bill Clinton and was riding high in the polls. Some analysts believe he could have actually won the race. He left the race and when he re-entered, his moment was gone.
Former New York Mayor Mario Cuomo came close to announcing a run for President and balked at the last minute so much pundits likened him to Hamlet.
Running for and capturing the Presidency in the late 20th and early 21st century requires that a candidate not dilly dally or play hard to get — or it will be hard to get when he/she finally decides to get it.
FOONOTE: Several reports note that New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is busy with some speeches and activities that aren’t usually endeavors of mayors.
For instance, he is now reportedly cramming on foreign policy.
Is it because he’s suddenly interested in foreign affairs?
Or does he hear — and is he about to answer — what he perceives to be a call from history? And will he do it quickly — or too late?
Yet, he’s running second nationally. Go figure.
Well that's it then. The definitive, final word on the matter has been spoken.
or
Someone's afraid Fred will beat Hillary and they would be correct. Nice to see the fear flowing like a river from the left.
“Time Magazine says the answer is most likely YES.”
As Time Magazine goes, so goes Newsweak.
This issue will be decided at the polls next year, not by Liberal magazine pundits.
He has much ground to make up. In the early primaries, when momentum does count, he is not in the lead anywhere except for maybe tied in South Carolina.
Romney and Huckabee have Iowa, Romney has New Hampshire, and is at least tied (some polls say ahead) in South Carolina, Michigan has Rudy, and Romney second,Florida has Rudy, and then we go into Super Tuesday, which Rudy dominates in the delegate rich states.
Unless things change drastically in the next month, (and we all know that they could) I do not see a feasible path to victory for Fred, despite his 2nd place national lead.
Can anyone give me a feasible path to victory?
I know many complain (maybe rightfully so) about the MSM seemingly downgrading Freds chances, but they realize that victory can only come through primaries, and if you don't lead in any of the early states money, and support historically dry up.
If Joe Gandelman were sincere about wanting to know whether Thompson has missed his “historical moment,” he would have waited until after the primaries.
This article has no substance. Written at the end of November of 07, it is irrefutably a desperate attempt to sway opinion of Thompson and has nothing whatsoever resembling honest inquiry.
Ask Al Gore if national polls trump State polls.
I am not saying that in the next month he can't pull it out, but even his most ardent supporters must admit that he should have done a much better job in his early months. September through November should have sewn up his support, yet in every single poll taken (even nationally) his support went down and not up. With the Holidays upon us, many will not be paying as much attention as they have been in the past 3 months.
Even Rasmussen has him going from his high point of 29% down to 12-14% over the past week.
The democrats allies in the MSM, including Fox News, are attempting to split the conservative vote, so their favored RINO candidate(s) can emerge victorious. That is why they continue to attack Fred and ignore Duncan Hunter altogether.
“Can anyone give me a feasible path to victory?”
You’ve got to take into consideration the inaccuracy of the polling data. If you think the exit polls of 04 were skewed, just wait. I believe Fred will do better than expected in all races.
No.
But I'm sure Giuliani is sitting back and enjoying how this GOP primary is unfolding.
Not real busy today, are you, danoo1????
Taking some time off from shilling for the “progressive consevative” Huckabee to bash a real conservative, I see.
You are defintely on to something there.
So, for a path to victory, all Fred has to do is keep on with his message- attack the issues and give timely responses to issues of the day (such as the DC gun hearing, etc.). The endorsements will keep coming for Fred. And I fully expect an NRA endorsement to come pretty quickly.
One look at the source tells me that it is anything but “The Moderate Voice”.
Links to all kinds of lefist sites like DU and DailyKOS.
Y A W N . . .
The people in charge of running Fred’s campaign have mismanaged it so far - but it’s not too late to fix it.
Huckabee is causing Fred alot of trouble.
If we can't trust any polling right now, then why were you using that as your argument for Fred?
Again, I don't think it is too late necessarily, but I do think that time is not on his side. With the Holidays upon us, it will become more and more difficult for any of the candidates to get their message out. I just think that Fred should have capitalized on the past few months, when the momentum coming into his announcement was at its peak.
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