Posted on 12/04/2007 9:59:07 AM PST by abb
Already in fourth place, it has the weakest lineup
By Kevin Downey Dec 4, 2007
With fresh episodes of their top scripted shows running out and the midseason just around the corner, all the networks are at some risk, but NBC has the most to lose if the writers' strike goes into the new year and beyond.
The other broadcast networks are heading into midseason ready to roll out fresh new series, including a handful of promising reality shows, which should prop up ratings.
That's not the case for NBC. Its creative cupboard is close to bare, with no original episodes of hits like “Heroes” and "The Office” remaining and no new shows that are expected to generate big ratings.
Further, it will go into the midseason already in fourth place in the 18-49 demographic and without its No. 1 show, “Sunday Night Football,” which will wrap up early next month.
The likely outcome: NBC’s ratings, already down 11 percent in 18-49s from last season, will tumble further.
“When they go into strike contingency plan, they’re at high risk,” says Susan Hajny, broadcast research manager at GSD&M.
“One big problem for NBC is that it has no big promotional platform to entice viewers to shows they’ll have to plug in. They’re going to lose football, so they don’t have any other big ratings. Also, they don’t have any new-show buzz to entice people watching repeats somewhere else.”
The best NBC will have to offer at midseason are returning shows like “The Biggest Loser” and the drama “Medium,” which generate only modest ratings. It also has "Law & Order" and "Law & Order: Criminal Intent" returning back to back Wednesdays.
Its one notable new show is the Brooke Shields drama “Lipstick Jungle,” premiering in February to fill in for “ER.”
Also returning are the reality shows “Singing Bee,” a celebrity version of “The Apprentice” and game show “1 vs. 100.” Among its new reality shows are the short-run “Clash of the Choirs” and "American Gladiators," but neither are expected to do well.
That leaves NBC in a sticky position.
More than the other networks it will rely on repeats, and NBC shows do not repeat very well. Its 18-49 rating for repeats last season was 29 percent lower than for originals, according to buying agency Magna Global.
It also must fill four hours on Sunday to replace football, which it will do with reality programming.
“The choice for them is going to be repeats and they have all that sci-fi stuff that, to a certain extent, is serialized, which doesn’t repeat well,” says David Scardino, entertainment specialist at Rubin Postaer and Associates. “Or they are going with untried reality and, in the case of ‘American Gladiators,’ revived reality.”
“They’re in pretty poor shape,” says Shari Anne Brill, senior vice president and director of programming at Carat. “Their backup is too reality dependent and, with the exception of ‘Deal or No Deal,’ their [unscripted shows] aren’t big players.”
NBC has only a few scripted shows with more than a few unaired episodes, including the low-rated like “Friday Night Lights” and aforementioned “Law & Order.”
Yet another worry facing the network is that it by going into reruns it will miss out on the substantial kickup in ratings hit shows like “Heroes” and “Office” get from DVR playback. Viewers aren’t going to record shows they’ve already seen.
“They have more shows than anybody else that have major time-shifting,” says Hajny. “They have seven shows where more than 25 percent of their full seven-day program rating is due to time shifting. Three of those shows approach 40 percent, which tells me these [viewers] are fans who’ve caught every episode. If NBC has to run repeats, those ratings are going to plummet.”
ping
NBc entire lineup is repleat with shows that routinely take cheap shots at America. Its not surprising, given how the anti America movies have bombed that its also affecting television ratings.
ER? How many episodes can they run with a sub plot about Darfur and America’s being at fault for whats happening there? Or Bosnia? How many episodes can they portray the Iraq war in a bad light?
How’d that ‘going green’ promotion do, NBC? Oh, sorry, you know the ratings listed in this article?
Brian Williams can’t even capitalize on Katie Couric’s implosion? Gee, I wonder why NBC....(eyes rolling)
And for what its worth, I actually like ‘Hero’s’ and ‘Medium’ but you’ve managed to leave the former hanging after last night due to the writers strike, and you’ve all but destroyed the latter by playing games with the scheduling.
I haven’t watched a “sitcom” since I got back to the ZI over ten years ago. The promos of some of the embarrassments drove me off. I do like Law & Order, but that’s about it for network TV (NFL excepted). Why did they hire that stoat Olberman?
New Broadcasting Canceled
As I think about it, other than live sports, I haven't watched any kind of Network show in at least 10 years. History Channel, Fox News and NFL Network are about it.
Did Heroes finally pick up this season. I lost interest at episode 4 or 5 cause it didn’t seem like it was going anywhere. Still have the season pass on my Tivo and just moving the file to cold storage for later viewing currently.
Chuck, Journeyman, and Life I’m enjoying though.
I watched the last Heroes last night and didn’t find it very satisfying. According to USA Today this morning, Chuck and Journeyman may end up cut permanently if the strike is not resolved quickly so they can get back on the schedule quickly after the first of the year.
Will the “clashing choirs” be using boxing gloves or bare knuckle?
Bibles.
Hey I have an idea to get NBC back on track. Let’s have a new show about a caring compassionate doctor that bucks the system out of deep personal conviction. Let him be manly, but with a sensible, good hearted liberalism. Let him have a few inner demons that he wrestles with to show us his human side; like let him be the victim of a cruel hearted conservative hypocritical religious father that drinks and embezzles. Let every episode end with a lesson on why we need more feeling from the hear. Let’s continue to insult 30 percent of our potential audience by telling them how stupid and evil they are.
I would watch that...
I enjoy Friday Night Lights.
Even Tim Kring is admitting that they screwed up this season with Heroes...basically agreeing with many fans that it was boring and unwatchable due to poor storylines.
I found Chuck to be one of the more original and enjoyable shows to come out this season and hope it sticks...it doesn’t hurt that the women on the show are knockouts.
I hope Life continues... fun premise (conspiracy) that keeps you interested even if the show plot isn’t as strong as you’d hope. And the rapport on the show gets better each week.
I can see why they are hurting. The only program I would even consider watching on NBC is Sunday Night Football.
I watch Journeyman because I love the lead actor, who was simply brilliant in the HBO series "Rome"--which if you haven't seen I strongly recommend you rent it.
Heroes lost me after about 6 episodes, when I realized it would just become pointless like “Lost” and “Twin Peaks” before it. The one thing I will dearly miss is “The Office”—the only show I watch every week.
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