The Key Question about the NIE's Key Judgment

So here's the key question about the Key Judgment of the National Intelligence Council's new National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's nuclear intentions and capabilities: Is this judgment supported by the evidence?

The judgment that's stirring up all the controversy -- and it's a real shocker -- comes in the very first sentence: We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program. The judgment is astonishing for two reasons. First, it flies in the face of virtually everything we know - or thought we knew -- about the Iranian regime, its capabilities and its intentions. Second, If the new Key Judgment is correct it means that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program fully two years before publication of the National Intelligence Council's 2005 Estimate on this same subject, which concluded "with high confidence" that Iran "currently is determined to develop nuclear weapons."

Let's hope that the new Key Judgment is correct, because it would be very good news for world peace -- although it would raise the troubling question of how our Intelligence Community could have been so wrong back in 2005. But if the new Key Judgment is incorrect -- in other words, if Iran in fact is now building nuclear weapons -- the political impact of its publication will be catastrophic. That's because it will make it virtually impossible for President Bush to stop the Iranians by launching a military attack on their nuclear facilities or by working covertly to overthrow the regime itself. And, of course, it would raise even more troubling questions about the capabilities of our Intelligence Community.

Simply put, we need to know for sure whether the new Key Judgment is right or wrong. And, given the long list of failures and reversals that has plagued our Intelligence Community during the last decade, it's reasonable to be skeptical.

To understand what to do next, keep in mind that all NIEs consist of two parts: the "Key Judgments" and the text itself. It's the text that includes, or should include, the evidence that our intelligence agencies have gathered relevant to the issue at hand. Obviously, you complete the text before writing the Key Judgments, which emerge from the text itself. And because the Key Judgments are just that - judgments - it sometimes happens that the leaders of our various intelligence agencies will agree on the evidence but disagree about the meaning of the evidence. That's why there are often dissenting opinions within the Key Judgments.

What was released on Monday is only the Key Judgments. The text itself hasn't been released -- and won't be, because the text presumably contains highly classified data relating to what we've learned about Iran's nuclear programs from all sources including, of course, our spies and satellites.

But the text is available to leading members of Congress, including members of both the House and Senate intelligence oversight committees. Today -- right now, this instant -- every one of these individuals should get hold of a copy of the NIE and read it. More precisely, they should cancel whatever appointments and public events are on their calendars, turn off their cell phones, then sit quietly with a pen in hand and work their way, slowly and carefully, through the text of the NIE. And when they've done that, each Representative or Senator should step forward to report - without giving details - whether the Key Judgment about Iran's nuclear weapons program is, or isn't, supported by the evidence.

Alas, given today's partisan political atmosphere -- and, even more distressing, the limited intellectual abilities of the people we elect -- this may not be sufficient to provide the confidence we need. If ever there was a time for a fast-track Presidential commission - this is it. Why not ask a half-dozen or so of the sharpest minds in our country to read through this NIE and to tell us - again, without providing details -- whether the Key Judgment is supported by evidence within the NIE's text. Not all members of this commission need be intelligence experts - or Iran experts, for that matter. In fact, it would be better if most aren't. The two qualities required are intellectual firepower and credibility. We ought to be able to find six such souls among the nearly 300 million of us. And the whole thing shouldn't take more than a week's time, if that.

It is no exaggeration to say that Iran holds the key to whether or not the world is facing a nuclear war. Surely, it's worth an extra effort to be confident that this time, our Intelligence Community has got it right.

Herbert E. Meyer served during the Reagan Administration as Special Assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates. He is author of How to Analyze Information.

The Democrats from Harry Reid on down better pray this political dictated manufacture collection of wishful thinking is true. IF the Iranians end up getting a nuke, there will be NO way for them to lie their way out from under responsibility for it.

Also, interesting what everyone on the Left is avoiding. 1st off the NIE states the Iranians DID have a nuke weapons program and they ended it in 2003. The same year the Libyans gave up their nuke program.

What happened in 2003?

Iraq was liberated. Seems the Liberation of Iraq has all ready fundamentally changed the ME.

So once again, Bush was right and Old Boy Washington was all wrong.

We are so child like. Iran is an enemy, run by fanatics, enriching a lot of uranium. An intelligence report can't change that reality, or stop Iran if it turns that uranium into a bomb. That's reality, not a headline.

The left acts as though reality is a never changing snapshot. It took Hitler and Japan a good while before they plunged the entire world into war, but they did it.

Iraq was liberated. Seems the Liberation of Iraq has all ready fundamentally changed the ME.

The three nations President Bush identified as the Axis of Evil were Iraq, Iran and North Korea. North Korea is backing away from nuclear weapon development. Iraq has been neutralized. If this (NIE) is true, Bush hits the trifecta and should win the Nobel Peace Prize. Of course, I don't I have my doubts that Iran stopped developing nuclear weapons.

Something seriously weird is going on here.

And whatever it was, it started about a month and a half ago.

President Bush, who had looked serious and depressed suddenly became light on his feet and happy.

All US carrier fleets suddenly departed the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman and haven’t been back since.

Most al-Quds operations in Iraq stopped.

With this announcement, Bush has not come out swinging, instead he issued just a mild caution. Israel did the same (so they probably know about whatever it is as well). Russia, China and Europe haven’t said a whole lot.

Iran is bragging victory. But in the Mid East, that often means you just got your butt kicked. The US hasn’t said anything about their declaring victory.

The three most influential intelligence heads to issue this report are “strong, anti-Bush partisans”. Who are making a 180 degree turn from four months ago. Allegedly based on the information provided by one source in Iran (unnamed).

In fact, no senior US political leader has come out to support or oppose the NIE. Only partisan leaders, like Howard Dean, who really isn’t in the government loop. No senior Democrat or Republican senator has said much of anything.

THIS DOES NOT COMPUTE, WILL ROBINSON.

Lets see if Iran suspended their nuclear program in 2003. And that makes us safe thats good. Next fast forward to June 2005 Iran elects Imanutjob as President and we are to beleive that their nuclear program is still idled. I will stick with President Bush fully beleiving that they are still actively manufacturing nuclear material. I will put about as much stock in my belief that their nuke program is currently idled as I will in beleiving that Imanutjob was really elected.

"The Key Question about the NIE's Key Judgment"

Irrelevant. The hard part about developing nuclear weapons is producing the fissile material; bomb design is little more than a physics major's senior thesis. The Allies stopped Nazi Germany's atomic bomb program by destroying its heavy water plant (the cornerstone of plutonium production). Israel stopped Iraq's atomic bomb program by destroying the Osirak reactor, which was designed to produce plutonium. When North Korea announced it was resuming its atomic bomb program, what it specifically announced was that it was resuming plutonium production. What matters is the material, not the design.

So the key question is this: Is Iran enriching uranium? And the answer is, yes, in ever-increasing quantity, by Iran's own admission! The NIE does not contest that at all.

When Iran has 20 kilograms of highly-enriched uranium, it will have a nuclear weapon, whether or not the "program" is "active." It will take the 3,000 centrifuges Iran—by its own admission—now has online between 4 and 9 months to produce 20 kilograms of HEU. Thus, even if everything in the NIE is the gospel truth, Iran will have a nuclear weapon sometime next year. That's simply a fact, and no one is going to do anything to stop it.

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