Why isn't Fred doing better????
Rudy 18
Myth 13
John 12
Fred 9
LRon 7
MOE 4
Ping.
This world is upside down and backwards if ya ask me.
Any ideas on this?
Third parties and a good militia is looking good right about now...
There is no way Huckabee is leading. Rasmussen needs to put down the crack pipe.
He's looking to be the next McLean Stevenson.
This is going to be brutal.
The Huck’s act is playing well among the Christian right.
If those percentages hold, the GOP is looking at a brokered convention.
It could be brutal in those smoke-filled rooms. At the current percentages, none of the contenders really hold a lock on the nomination. They hardly can even place a significant part, as none even holds 25%.
A true dark horse who isn’t even on the radar at present could emerge as the new knight-in-shining-armour.
JMHO, but these polls have been glorified since the Klinton years. They seem to raised doubts on Pubbies from day to day, while showing Greeeat Progress by the Dummies.
Can we pare down or eliminate them?
Fred in single digits now.
Ooookay. He needs to turn that the heck around or many will begin taking a second look at Romney and Huckabee.
intrade.com:
Winner of 2008 Republican South Carolina Primary:
Giuliani: 17.0,20.0
Romney: 13.1,22.3
Thompson 15.1,24.0
Mccain 1.0,7.9
Any other individual: 45.0, 48.0
Winner of 2008 Republican Iowa Caucus:
Huckabee: 62,65
Early Primaries caucuses:
Iowa: Huck
Wyoming: ???
New Hampshire: slick Mitt has lead (Southern NH is suburb of Taxachusetts)
Michigan: slick Mitt slight lead Gui close
Nevada: ???
South Carolina: Huck
Florida: Gui (liberal New Yorkers moved there)
Maine ???
..will be interesting if Huck knocks Slick Mitt/Judy Annie out of Mich/Florida or New Hampshire...
..not sure which primaries are winner take all, and which ones are take percentage of delegates...
the factor of candidates with poor showings in early primaries dropping out is hard to predict...
Huck seems like a nice guy, but I can’t vote for a nanny.
Ok so the media and the average person is falling behind here. Guiliani is toast. The media wondered why he was doing so well for so long and then just declared they were wrong. But his numbers have slowly eroded day by day, almost every day. What the media expected to happen has happened just very slowly. What is important to note is what is happening as people play closer attention. Guiliani falls, Huckabee surges. By the time Guiliani loses Iowa and NH people will barely remember he’s still in the race and he’ll probably poll in the low double digits.
Huckabee is the clear frontrunner IMO. I picked up his contracts at 5 dollars at intrade. I wanted to buy a lot more at 10 but they make it so cumbersome to deposit money. At 20 cents I think he’s still a a bargain. Freepers should lay off on the attacks because we will be defending him in a general. He is winning in Iowa and SC. Is second in NV and SC. He is now second nationally. He trajectory is going one way. The more people pay attention the more gains. The more media exposure he gets the more he gains. When he wins Iowa he will gain more as the nation starts paying attention. He is just starting to raise money at a first tier rate. If he has done this much with nothing imagine when he starts spending and picks up IA and SC.
This is the real deal, not a fad. Huckabee has struck a nerve with people. I went to the Lincoln Day dinner in IA. After getting pictures with Romney, McCain, and Guiliani I mentioned to my wife I wanted a picture with Huckabee as he was the only person with a darhorse chance. I missed the chance as he was on stage playing with his band but managed to get a picture awhile back at a concert he had in Clear Lake. I met Fred in NH on a sidetrip while visiting back home in NY. It was clear to me early on that an excellent speaker/former govern with a “everyman” quality and life story was a great candidate for this cycle.
If his showing so far isn’t enough to prove the point look at the positions of the other candidates...
Romney will be toast after IA. A NH victory is meaningless as we all know it’s almost his home turf. After losing IA and SC while spending countless millions etc how is he a real contender? Again, the more people pay attention, the more his numbers fall.
Fred is dead. He never took off. He was a media fad with a small loyal following on places like FR. He has recognition and money and is going nowhere. What is his path to victory? He will lose IA, lose NH, and lose SC. He has weak numbers across the board. What can possibly change this dynamic? I see nothing. He will likely be the first to bow out which likely helps Huckabee.
The only person I can see possibly upsetting Huckabee is McCain and it’s a longshot. A surprise win in NH and he will have a shot at an upset in SC. McCain is the only first tier candidate who does not seem to fall the closer attention people pay to the race. If people get nervous when Huckabee is the clear frontrunner McCain has a long shot at an upset.
I also bought Obama contracts at 20 and again when they fell to 10. Again, I wish it was easier to tranfer money into intrade because I would have bought more. Obama is still a bargain in the mid 20’s. Again, the more attention people pay the more he surges. Hillary’s #’s are collapsing in IA, NH, and SC. The closer we get the more he will surge. I simply never believed the Dems were stupid enough to give us the gift of a Hillary nomination. They know it will unite us and in general people are looking for an outsider, something different this election. Hillary is not that.
The mainstream media bet on a Hillary/Guiliani matchup. I call BS. Neither will be the nominee. What’s cool is that I stand to make quite a bit of cash betting against this nonsense.
Why isn't Fred doing better????
Petronski, if you are going to post the Daily Rasmussen poll could you report it straight, and spare us the messing with the names? You can give us your side-splitting hijinks in your valuable and informative posts further down the thread.
Don't forget about the money!
Cash on hand report from September 30, 2007.
Huckabee --- $651,300.68
Guiliani --- $16,649,825.65
Romney --- $9,216,517.36
McCain --- $3,488,627.91
Thompson --- $7,121,744.26
Now I'm sure that Huckabee has increased his revenue dramatically, but so have others. Running regional ads, particularly important due to Super Tuesday coming so early this cycle, is very expensive.
At the end of September, just 68 days ago, Mike Huckabee had less than 20% of the cash on hand that John McCain did. He had less than 4% than Guiliani had.
Iowa and New Hampshire can get him a lot of free exposure, but he needs money, lots of it and quickly, if he wants to turn momentum into delegates.