Posted on 12/08/2007 1:31:09 AM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
The intelligence came from an exotic variety of sources: there was the so-called Laptop of Death; there was the Iranian commander who mysteriously disappeared in Turkey. Also in the mix was video footage of a nuclear plant in central Iran and intercepts of Iranian telephone calls by the British listening station GCHQ.
But pivotal to the US investigation into Iran's suspect nuclear weapons programme was the work of a little-known intelligence specialist, Thomas Fingar. He was the principal author of an intelligence report published on Monday that concluded Iran, contrary to previous US claims, had halted its covert programme four years ago and had not restarted it. Almost single-handedly he has stopped - or, at the very least, postponed - any US military action against Iran.
His report marks a decisive moment in the battle between American neoconservatives and Washington's foreign policy and intelligence professionals - between ideologues and pragmatists. It provided an unexpected victory for those opposed to the neocon plans for a military strike.
The report, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which represents the consensus of the 16 US intelligence agencies, gave President George Bush one of his most difficult weeks since taking office in January 2001.
Fingar's findings were met in many Washington offices occupied by foreign policy and intelligence professionals not only with relief but with rejoicing. They had lost out in the run-up to the war in Iraq in 2003, but they are winning this one.
A backlash is under way; with the neocons being joined by even moderate foreign policy specialists who claim the report seriously underestimates the threat posed by Iran. Senate Republicans are planning to call next week for a congressional commission to investigate the report.
(Excerpt) Read more at guardian.co.uk ...
Yes, I also find that choice of words the ultimate irony.
They are, very deliberately and with impunity, doing the same thing they accused the White House of doing in the run-up to Iraq.
Well then, I suppose you trump me there unless I am willing to come right out and name names and circumstances. And as much as I would like to, I just won't do that.
Don't misconstrue what I'm saying to mean that I'm backing down on my claim though, because I'm not.
Thanks for that info on Fingar.
One month after Iran was named an "axis of evil" nation, Haass went to the Middle East and told Israeli officials that they needed to "engage" the mullahs. And earlier this year [2003], Haass tried to undermine the president's clear determination to not give in to North Korean demands for one-on-one talks. This January, he sent out a cable blasting the president's approach in what an administration official labeled a "broadside."
If Haass is effectively restricted from arranging official sit-downs with Iran, he may go through back-channels to achieve essentially the same result. Earlier this month, Haass protege Flynt Leverett had a "chat" with a former head of Iran's military at a political conference in Athens...
...The Iranian with whom Leverett had his "informal" conversation is himself not a government official, though he still is very much a power broker, with proteges of his dotting the top echelons of the Iranian government. It is most likely that Iran saw Leverett in a similar light. Leverett was not just a recent retiree; he is extremely close—personally and professionally—to Haass. ...
It is not clear if Leverett's supposedly spontaneous meeting was pre-cleared by Haass or anyone else at State, but it is clear he exercised the same questionable judgment used by other Foggy Bottom officials. The man Leverett so happily met with was Mohsen Rezai, the former head Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Rezai is an active supporter of Hezbollah, which has killed more Americans than any other terrorist outfit besides al-Qaeda. Rezai has also long been suspected of ties to a deadly attack in Lebanon in 1983 that killed 238 U.S. troops. -----STATE DEPARTMENT'S FAVORITE MULLAHS (Anti-America best friends - State Dept.) Townhall ^ | 6/2/03 | Joel Mowbray
IC staff employees are still barred by federal law from unionizing. There have been attempts in the pass to change this law but as of now it still stands.
Look the NIE could be an honest assessment, given the spotty nature of the actual facts on what Iran is really doing. Intelligence analysis is an art not a science, one or a couple new data points could completely change the interpretation of the data. You & I have not seen the facts that underlie this NIE. For example, you could walk into a room that has 2 exits (The one you came in and another.) You then see a dead man lying in a pool of blood. Another person is standing there holding a knife. Now tell me what happened?
Point being if your fact set is very limited you can have two or more even contradictory explanations.
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