Posted on 12/12/2007 12:00:57 PM PST by Graybeard58
The sun comes up and before long highways are choked with traffic. Does that mean sunrise causes gridlock? Yes, according to the logic the World Health Organization used in declaring night-shift work increases women's risk of breast cancer.
The WHO committed post-hoc reasoning, short for post hoc ergo propter hoc ("after this, therefore because of this"). It assumed that since X preceded Y, X caused Y. It's the basis of superstition — you break a mirror, then you have bad luck, so breaking a mirror brings bad luck — and loads of bad science.
Two decades ago, researchers noted a curious spike in breast-cancer cases among women who work nights. Richard Stevens, an epidemiologist at the University of Connecticut Health Center, hypothesized electric lights might be the cause. Since then, a limited number of studies have been conducted to test his theory, but insufficient data exist for it to have evolved into fact.
But the WHO recently ignored all other possible explanations and confused sequence with causality in declaring night work a probable cause of breast cancer.
Though it lacked strong evidence to support the connection, the WHO assumed a cause-and-effect relationship. But aren't women who work days constantly exposed to electric light, too? And aren't they bathed in it at home at night?
Even Mr. Stevens admits the association could be caused merely by women changing shifts. More likely, it's a coincidence that more women who are predisposed, by heredity, diet, lifestyle or other statistically and medically correlatable factors, to breast cancer work nights.
But post-hoc fallacies pervade "scientific research" today. They are why caffeine, chocolate, alcohol, breast feeding, fish and sunlight are good for you one day and bad the next. They have spurred scientists hoping to keep their government-grant gravy trains on track to introduce cancer scares, later debunked, involving power lines, electric blankets, Alar and cell phones. And they have spawned the cottage industry of global warming — civilization emits greenhouse gases, the planet is warming ever-so slightly, therefore civilization is fueling climate change.
Unfortunately, such fallacies become fact when they are foisted upon a gullible populace by self-serving scientists in league with publications skilled in alarmism.
Ping to a Republican-American Editorial.
If you want on or off this list, let me know.
Try it, it's easy.
'Rats cause higher taxes (no wait, that's true).
Take away oxygen and you eliminate all crime.
“The study itself claimed a correlation, not a conclusion.”
Those type of studies seem to be dominating the MSM headlines.
This applies to global warming, communism, practically every ism there is out there. Bad science by popular demand and agenda driven propaganda is what causes people to believe in bullsh!t.
Grew up working on a farm and brother I'm here to testify that bullsh!t is real!
Finally someone actually published what I have been saying all along.
Absolutely, Slapshot. Sensationalistic mainstream media coverage distorts research to the point where it doesn’t even come close to representing any actual scientific thinking. We see the exact same thing with global warming. There’s some great research on BOTH sides of the issue, but the MSM focuses on an Al Gore slideshow and gross generalizations instead.
X proceeds Y
Therefore Y causes X.
Per the ice core records that show temperature changes proceed corresponding CO2 changes.
It’s not a theory yet; it’s a hypothesis. It’s a worthwhile hypothesis. Scientists know the difference even if reporters don’t.
Short sleep has been linked to early menarche.
Flawgic, a wonderful thing.
They should study whether Accidents cause Mondays as well.
From what I can tell, the Waterbury Republican-American assumes that studies like this one are ultimately political in nature, and so it dismisses them out of hand.
Guilty, IOW, of the very sin they purport to be pointing out.
I've learned to ignore them as a reliable source for commentary.
I heard a theory that the sun causes daylight.
Malatonin production is drastically lowered in those working nights and constantly indoors. Melatonin is implicated in proper apoptosis for cells going out of control.
And they laughed when I offered breast screenings to my midnight co-workers!
Its the lack of vitamin D, which is derived from sunshine just that simple. Take vitamin D suppliment and problem solved.
The alarmists show co2 plots rising ~ 1950 and temperatures rising from ~1970. They really don’t want to be confused by all of that inconvient “old” data.
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