Congressional Combat

realclearpolitics.com ^ | December 20, 2007 | Larry Sabato

[neverdem]

Truly important election years for the U.S. House of Representatives come around only every so often-years when party control is at stake and the House actually changes hands or the balance of power is significantly altered one way or the other.

Since 1970 we have had five of those years:

1974 - The year of Watergate, when Democrats added 48 net House seats and elected 75 freshmen who shook up the House and made life miserable both for senior Democratic legislative barons and Republican President Gerald R. Ford.

1980 - Ronald Reagan's initial election as President with strong coattails, when the GOP added 33 House seats. That was not enough to take over but, when combined with the still-large contingent of Southern Democrats, it gave Reagan strong support for his tax-cut and defense policies.

1982 - In the midst of a serious recession, Democrats won back 26 of the 33 seats they had lost two years earlier. With six years to go as President, Reagan was never able to rule the House roost quite as effectively as in his first two years.

1994 - Forty consecutive years of Democratic control in the House of Representatives came to an end, as Newt Gingrich's Republicans capitalized on a poor performance by President Bill Clinton. The GOP added a remarkable 52 seats to give it a House majority roughly equal to the one Democrats enjoy today.

2006 - After a dozen years out of power, the Democrats came roaring back on the strength of the unpopularity of President Bush and his Iraq War, plus corruption that directly affected about a dozen GOP congressmen. Democrats gained 29 House seats (later expanded to 30 in a special December election in Texas).

Notice that the natural rhythm of two-party politics produces changes that flow from one...

[IGOTMINE]

Larry Sabato.

Enough said.

[neverdem]

Parker v. Washington D.C. in HTML courtesy of zeugma.

We also note that at least three current members (and one former member) of the Supreme Court have read “bear Arms” in the Second Amendment to have meaning beyond mere soldiering: “Surely a most familiar meaning [of ‘carries a firearm’] is, as the Constitution’s Second Amendment (’keepand bear Arms’) and Black’s Law Dictionary . . . indicate: ‘wear, bear, or carry . . . upon the person or in the clothing or in a pocket, for the purpose . . . of being armed and ready for offensive or defensive action in a case of conflict with another person.” Muscarello v. United States, 524 U.S. 125, 143 (1998) (Ginsburg, J., dissenting, joined by Rehnquist, C.J., Scalia, J.,and Souter, J.) (emphasis in original). Based on the foregoing, we think the operative clause includes a private meaning for”bear Arms.”

Unaddressed is how Washington D.C. v. Heller nee Parker will play out. The gun grabbers stifled themselves to win in 2006, but they seem to be coming out of the woodwork again. If the Second Amendment is upheld as an individual right, the GOP may lose a lot of single voters. Then again the gun grabbers might renew efforts on ammo control.

[neverdem]

single voters = single issue voters

Drat

[Clintonfatigued]

I don’t expect to see the GOP retake either house of Congress. But if they play their cards right and target their limited resources expertly, they can hold the losses down, or maybe even gain a seat or two.

[fieldmarshaldj]

It’s hard for me to render a final judgment here, because it also depends on whom we tie ourselves to in the Presidential race. Having barely 2 and a half million for nearly 470 races House and Senate is a fiasco of the highest order. We’re going to need at least 100 million to be able to fight back hard.

[MSF BU]

My thoughts exactly. A clear victory for a personal right to keep and bear arms (which I hope for) may have the effect of causing some second amendment enthusiasts to be content and to leave the political process.

[jrooney]

Larry I inserted myself into the Macca debate to hurt former Senator Allen with second or third hand information, has ruined his reputation. Tough for me to look at this guy any differently than I look at David Corn.

[Kuksool]

The DCCC has 30 Million. THe NRCC has close to 3 million.

The DSCC has close to 26 million. The NRSC has 10 million.

Plus, we have some recruiting setbacks to reclaim the IN seats, Bob Ney’s seats, and Heath Shuler’s seat. Its as if we don’t want to win. Pathetic.