'Israel will attack Iran on its own'

Jerusalem Post ^ | 12/21/2007 | Staff

[mojito]

I came back from a trip to Israel in November convinced that Israel would attack Iran," Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official and senior adviser to three US presidents, George W. Bush among them, told the American Newsweek magazine in an article published Friday.

Citing conversations he had in Israel with officials in Mossad and the Israeli defense establishment, Riedel concluded that "Israel is not going to allow its nuclear monopoly to be threatened."

While some US experts doubt Israel's ability to tackle Iran alone, David Albright, of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, was quoted by Newsweek as saying that although information on the exact location of Iran's nuclear facility is incomplete, Israel's air strike on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility on September 6, widely discussed in foreign media outlets, could be seen as a test run for any future strike on Iran's facilities, as well as a direct warning to Teheran.

Riedel told the magazine his impression that Israel would venture a strike on Iran on its own was formed before the publication of the joint US intelligence agencies' report, the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). "This [the NIE] makes it [a strike on Iran] even more likely," he said.

Since the publication of the NIE, which reversed a previous American assessment by concluding that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003, leaders worldwide have been adjusting their publicly stated positions on the Iranian nuclear issue.

Even inside the US, President Bush attempted some damage control by stating a day after the report's publication that "Iran was dangerous, Iran is dangerous and Iran will be dangerous."

In Israel, responses to the report ranged from subtle criticism of the report's conclusions to outright slamming of the US intelligence community's capabilities, so much so that on last Sunday's cabinet meeting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert instructed his ministers to refrain from commenting any further on the report.

In the international scene, Russia's decision to renew fuel shipments to Iran main nuclear facility at Bushehr was interpreted by many anlysts as stemming directly from the NIE's publication; another development possibly stemming from the report is Russia and China's hardened position on further sanctions against Teheran.

In Teheran, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was quick to capitalize on the NIE, calling it an "Iranian victory" and demanding that the United States publicly apologize for its previous bellicose stance.

Uzi Arad, a former Mossad official and adviser to opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu, told Newsweek that on a recent trip to Moscow, a Russian general poked fun at the naiveté of the NIE, commenting that if the Iranians had halted weapons development in 2003 it was partly because they were satisfied with progress there and wanted to devote investment to harder parts of the nuclear equation, like enrichment.

"The irony is that the effect of this report may be self-negating - by itself it will accelerate Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons," Arad told the magazine.

[mojito]

The MSM does all it can to protect the Iranian regime. Isn't that interesting?

[camerakid400]

Cool.

[djf]

Dead women and children and young men, even if they are obstinate and deluded women and children and young men, is not cool.

[Badeye]

‘Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official and senior adviser to three US presidents, George W. Bush among them, told the American Newsweek magazine in an article published Friday. ‘

I’ll just point out that isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement of this guy’s ‘expertise’ given the results the CIA has produced for the the last SEVEN US President’s, George W Bush among them....

Gee, is it a ‘slam dunk’?

[mkjessup]

It’s interesting because the MSM (aka the Lamestream Media) does all it can to coddle and cozy up to the Buffoon from Plains (aka Jimmah Cartah) who royally screwed the pooch in the Middle East during the four agonizing years of his term by stabbing the Shah in the back, calling the Assahollah Khomeini a ‘godly man’ and turning Iran into an ENEMY of the United States (when previously, Iran had been our ALLY and a force for stability).

Were it not for Carter, Iran would not now be run by Islamofascist mullahs and thugs, threatening Israel and the stability of that region, and the entire world.

Funny we never hear anything about ‘why’ Iran turned into an enemy of the United States, when the reason is as plain as the fake chicklet-grin on Carter’s lying face.

[SF Republican]

While some US experts doubt Israel's ability to tackle Iran alone - well when you have many sides of an issue, someone needs to be wrong.

[mkjessup]

Dead women and children and young men, even if they are obstinate and deluded women and children and young men, is not cool.

If you're talking about Iranian victims of an Israeli strike, perhaps you would prefer to see those women, children and young men grow up to be adult terrorists doing the bidding of the Islamofascists in Tehran?

Little snakes grow up to be big snakes.

If someone stomps on a snake nest, the fault is in those who bred, hatched and nurtured the little vipers, not in those who eliminated the threat.

[expatpat]

Israel should do it.The US should provide them with satellite intelligence and bunker-buster ordnance.

[camerakid400]

I dont understand your comment.

I support Israel if they want to launch precision airtrikes against Iranian nuke sites. We are not talking about bombing civilians here

[djf]

I’m not saying it can or can’t be done. We all know of the stories of collateral damage, etc.

What I’m saying is war is not a “cool” thing.
Even when it’s necessary, even when it’s successful, it is a tragic thing.

Just my opinion. Maybe I’m too old fashioned.

[RC2]

All Israel has to do is send someone to Iran and say “You want peace or war? You tell us.” If they want war, give it to them. If they want peace, give it to them. Get this crap over with.

[Stark_GOP]

Dead women and children and young men, even if they are obstinate and deluded women and children and young men, is not cool.

---

Civilians don’t usually live at nuke sites.
Protecting yourself from utter destruction by a country wanting to dance on your grave. Better than cool.
Who is the aggressor?

[Bon mots]

I’m not a very religious person, but it sure seems to be unfolding an awful lot like the Bible said it would.

[steve86]

Maybe you are in the process of becoming a religious person.

[peyton randolph]

I’m not a very religious person, but it sure seems to be unfolding an awful lot like the Bible said it would.

---

You can selectively interpret the Bible to predict anything...including what you'll be having for dinner tomorrow night.

[agere_contra]

If Israel eventually has to destroy 100% of the population of Iran in order to preserve itself from the genocidal reality of Islam for another decade, then I for one would not shed a single tear. They would have acted in self-defence.

The problem is that - if his entire country died - Ahmadinejad wouldn’t shed a tear either. His people would have died as besijji martyrs in the name of the Prophet. This is why almost no human cost is too high in order to stop Ahmadinejad’s type of fanatic from getting hold of nuclear weapons.

[BradtotheBone]

The US should provide them with satellite intelligence and bunker-buster ordnance.

We allready have.

[logic]

What I’m saying is war is not a “cool” thing.

Despite the fact that they act to the contrary, I don't think Iran is stupid enough to go to war with the U.S. simply because we eliminated their chance to get nuclear weapons... I would expect brinkmanship and a LOT of international heat, but no war...

[logic]

ou can selectively interpret the Bible to predict anything...including what you'll be having for dinner tomorrow night.

by all means, indulge me... What will I be having for dinner tomorrow night. According to the King James version please...

[Stark_GOP]

You can selectively interpret the Bible to predict anything...including what you’ll be having for dinner tomorrow night.

---

Wow. Even when the Bible states the who, what, where, and even the why of a historical event hundreds of years before its occurance?
Have you ever read the Bible?

[OPS4]

I agree with you, but remeber there are many trolls on the site these days.

Israel will not let Iran reach full nuclear war power, and niether will the United States.

Russia is being viewed by this transaction, and the view is focusing in on Putin, his agenda and his private cash box.

The truth will be revealed, and the Bible is full of the truth.

[OPS4]

CROW on Judegement day is my prediction.

[Zechariah11]

You can selectively interpret the Bible to predict anything...including what you'll be having for dinner tomorrow night.

I suppose cynics could do the same with the Constitution.

[TigersEye]

What I’m saying is war is not a “cool” thing. Even when it’s necessary, even when it’s successful, it is a tragic thing.

The key word there is 'necessary' isn't it? It is a tragic thing that war is ever necessary but in this world it often is. I don't know about 'cool' but it is not tragic when someone has the will and the heart to do what is necessary to eliminate or at least diminish the threats that cause war in the first place.

[lonevoice]

God speed, Israel.

[Mr. Mojo]

It’ll be a lot more difficult than destroying Saddam single reactor at Osirak in ‘81, but it can be done. Israel takes care of business when she needs to.

[expatpat]

Yes, I figured that, but wanted to make a point that we will help ‘em.

[logic]

I suppose cynics couldhave do(ne) the same with the Constitution.

FIFY...

[2harddrive]

What about us OLD men?

[iopscusa]

Israel may go nuke on several of the Iranian sites and shut down all the air force and navy!

[G8 Diplomat]

If you're talking about Iranian victims of an Israeli strike, perhaps you would prefer to see those women, children and young men grow up to be adult terrorists doing the bidding of the Islamofascists in Tehran? Little snakes grow up to be big snakes. If someone stomps on a snake nest, the fault is in those who bred, hatched and nurtured the little vipers, not in those who eliminated the threat.

Actually a large percentage of the Iranian youth hate Ahmadinejad and are very pro-American. They were the only people in the Middle East--that includes Israel--to hold a candlelight vigil for the victims of 9/11, shouting "Death to terrorists", not "Death to America." Something like 70% of the young Iranians are supportive of America--that's more than Britain, France, and Germany, for example. Some Iranians are better Americans than Americans who were born and raised here. It is inaccurate to say EVERY Iranian will grow up to be a terrorist. They hate the regime and have been protesting for a decade for its removal. They are not jihadists, they want a secular, free democracy.

I know some Iranian-Americans (one of them is in my chemistry class), and they are very nice people. Much nicer than your average rude, pop culture-addicted teenage punk you see walking around.

[G8 Diplomat]

If Israel eventually has to destroy 100% of the population of Iran

That is ridiculous. Why should they exterminate an entire country's population?? See post #31

[444Flyer]

Self-defense n 1: the use of force to defend oneself 2: an affirmative defense alleging that the defendant used force necessarily to protect himself or herself because of a reasonable belief that the other party intended to inflict great bodily harm or death-see also JUSTIFICATION 2.

justification 2: something that justifies;specif: a legally sufficient reason or cause (as self-defense) for an act that would otherwise be criminal or tortious.

- Merriam-Webster’s Dictionary of Law, Copyright 1996.

[444Flyer]

Good books to read are Ezekiel, Daniel and Revelation. Also, Matthew chapter 24.

[cva66snipe]

The MSM does all it can to protect the Iranian regime. Isn't that interesting?

The Bush Administration does all they can do to protect Israels enemies isn't that interesting. If Condi gets wind of any military actions by Israel she'll be on her broom and in the M.E. faster than you can say Mad Maddie the second. One POTUS in the past 26 years was wise enough to leave Israel be and act in her own behalf. Sad to say the ones who followed after him have not.

[mkjessup]

"Actually a large percentage of the Iranian youth hate Ahmadinejad and are very pro-American...Something like 70% of the young Iranians are supportive of America--that's more than Britain, France, and Germany, for example. Some Iranians are better Americans than Americans who were born and raised here."

If that's the case, all I've got to say is that those wonderful pro-American Iranians better get their asses in gear and take out their little runt and the mullahs with the rest of the garbage before we (or Israel) have to do the job for them.

[G8 Diplomat]

That is much harder than it sounds. Students who have simply held demonstrations have been beaten, thrown out of dorm windows, and arrested and thrown in jail. This is not America, you can’t just get rid of your politicians. You could hang from a noose if you go to far.

If anyone wants to volunteer to go to Iran and help the dissidents successfully overthrown Ahmadinejad and Khamnei, let me know how that goes...if you’re still alive.

[mkjessup]

In other words, you think we should just wait them out to see what happens then?

I’m sure there are plenty of Czechs and Poles who might take issue with that policy of ‘wait and see’, you know what I’m saying here?

When would you think military action is required against Iran?

Say, after a mushroom cloud is seen over what was once known as Tel Aviv?

[G8 Diplomat]

Nowhere did I say we should just wait it out. All I said was that it’s near-impossible for the Iranians to simply throw off the regime by themselves.

These are different issues we’re talking about here....I’m all for dropping a bomb on Tehran to halt their nuke program. That’s different from talking about the nature of the Iranian people. The “little snakes grow up to be big snakes” is all I was commenting on....I wasn’t making a case for not bombing Iran.

[El Gato]

What about us OLD men?

We're even more expendable, having already reproduced and mostly not needed for the next generation. Grandpas just don't get the respect Grandma's do. :) I know mine didn't, although my girls paternal grandpa seemed to. The jury is still out on me, my granddaughters are 2 1/2 yrs and 6 1/2 weeks. But I'll tell you this much. I'd gladly be "expended" rather have any of them be forced to wear a Burka or Hijib, or even worse, be beaten with a "rule of thumb" stick.

[infowarrior]

I'd gladly be "expended" rather have any of them be forced to wear a Burka or Hijib, or even worse, be beaten with a "rule of thumb" stick.

My sentments, exactly... If it were apparent that these troglodytes would, indeed, inherit the earth, and force all others to submit to their barbarity, I would be willing to leave them only scorched earth...

the infowarrior

[Colorado Doug]

You can selectively interpret the Bible to predict anything...including what you'll be having for dinner tomorrow night.

Really? That's quite a claim but I like to be open minded. So, do tell, what am I having for dinner tomorrow night?

[peyton randolph]

I suppose cynics could do the same with the Constitution.

---

Sure. Just like Nostradamus etc. The point is that it gives me the creeps every time some yahoo interprets Event X as being foreshadowed by the Bible. I'm not knocking Biblical prophesy...just the propensity of some to be reading the religious tea leaves without a sense of perspective. There are loons across the political spectrum who see what isn't there. An example from the left were those who claimed the Bible foretold Reagan's presidency because each of his three names had six letters --- 666 - The Mark of the Beast. One can laugh but same absurdity at issue here when one sees X and suggests the Bible predicted it.

[mkjessup]

Nowhere did I say we should just wait it out. All I said was that it’s near-impossible for the Iranians to simply throw off the regime by themselves.

How can they be helped, and by whom? (that's not a rhetorical question, I'd like to hear your view on how the Iranian people could best be supported and motivated to overthrow the tyranny that runs their country.

These are different issues we’re talking about here....I’m all for dropping a bomb on Tehran to halt their nuke program. That’s different from talking about the nature of the Iranian people. The “little snakes grow up to be big snakes” is all I was commenting on....I wasn’t making a case for not bombing Iran.

My 'snake' analogy was not invoked on a whim. I refer to the children recruited into the Basiji brigades and used for battlefield fodder during the Iran-Iraq War. Those who survived became a power base for noneother than Ahmadinejad who was an instrumental figure in training those children to serve as human mine sweepers and 'martyrs' for 'allah' during that war (the children who didn't survive naturally aren't around to support him today), have you perhaps read an excellent article by Matthias Kuntzel? If not, it is worth the read:

http://www.matthiaskuentzel.de/contents/ahmadinejads-world

I'd like to believe that the Iranian people are more pro-American than we dare to hope, but when I read of Ahmadinejad announcing a 'Basiji Week' in the Fall of 2005 to celebrate his 'election', he got a response of an estimated 9 million Basiji brigade members who formed a human chain damn near 9000 kilometres long!

That's a lotta basiji, that's a lotta jihad.

I hope you're right and that the Iranian people CAN change the suicidal course their nation is on.

If not, it's going to get very ugly, very suddenly.

Merry Christmas to you and yours!

[Zechariah11]

The point is that it gives me the creeps every time some yahoo interprets Event X as being foreshadowed by the Bible. I'm not knocking Biblical prophesy...just the propensity of some to be reading the religious tea leaves without a sense of perspective. There are loons across the political spectrum who see what isn't there.

I don't think FreeRepublic is the proper venue to discuss anything about Scripture at all - eschatology, soteriology, or what have you. But, being one who loves to study it, I get a bit defensive at times.

[M. Espinola]

The Shi’ite jihadist enemy which Iran’s terrorist thugs arm, train and bankroll attacks Israelis, coupled with American, British and other Coalition troops in Iraq, therefore a joint military effort should have already been undertaken to remove the Iranian dictatorship.

[G8 Diplomat]

How can they be helped, and by whom?

They ARE motivated to overthrow the tyrrany, but just about every dictator in recent times has been overthrown not from within, but from military help or economic pressure from outside. The Soviet Union fell in the latter way, and Hitler, Mussolini, Napoleon, and Saddam, for example, have fallen the former. The Iraqis did not overthrow Saddam, the Germans did not overthrow Hitler, we pounded the crap out of their armies until they surrendered. Ataturk is the exception that comes to mind; he dissolved the Ottoman empire pretty much single-handedly. What they need is an Iranian Ataturk, or someone who can successfully assassinate both Ahmadinejad and Khamenei. If we went to war with Iran we would easily beat them, and Ahmadinejad knows it. The Iranian army is worthless, and it's hardly a match unless he's got nukes. Which is why we should bomb Iran now and pound the crap out of what army they have.

This is the article that talks about the Iranian youth and their views of the US: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,1072-717362,00.html

Quote from article: "A poll conducted by a state-owned company in Tehran in February revealed that 70 per cent of Iranians had a favourable view of the US (which is thus more popular in Iran than in Britain, let alone in France and Germany)."

9 million basijji...Iran's population is around 80 million, there are plenty more decent Iranians out there. 11 million of them did not show up at the ballot box in 05, and Ahmadinejad only won by about 500,000 votes.

[mkjessup]

An example from the left were those who claimed the Bible foretold Reagan's presidency because each of his three names had six letters --- 666 - The Mark of the Beast. One can laugh but same absurdity at issue here when one sees X and suggests the Bible predicted it.

Funny you should mention that.

I recall a xerox'd primitive 'spam' (pre-Internet of course) that I received from somebody in January 1981 (right after Reagan's Inauguration) and it was quite interesting, it went like this:

1917

1926

1935

1944

1953

1962

1971

1980

Reagan was born in 1911.

In 1917, he was 6 years old.

In 1926, he was 15 years old. (1 + 5 = 6)

In 1935, he was 24 years old. (2 + 4 = 6)

In 1944, he was 33 years old. (3 + 3 = 6)

In 1953, he was 42 years old. (4 + 2 = 6)

In 1962, he was 51 years old. (5 + 1 = 6)

In 1971, he was 60 years old. (6 + 0 = 6)

In 1980, he was 69 years old. (6 + 9 = 15, 1 + 5 = 6)

Each of the digits of the above years, when added together, equal '18', which breaks down to '6 + 6 + 6'.

Those type of years occur -only- *8* times after Reagan was born in 1911, and after 1980 (the year Reagan was elected) that 'type' of year ceases to occur for the rest of the 20th Century.

The 'argument' that was made by whatever number cruncher that came up with this, was that it pointed to the high probability that Ronald Wilson Reagan was indeed, a potential candidate to be the Antichrist of Biblical prophecy. And more than a few people took it quite seriously, because you can't refute numbers.

Now you could say "that applies to ANYBODY born in 1911", and you would be right. But how many people born in 1911 went on to become the President of the United States?

Only one. Ronald Reagan.

And believe you me, after John Hinckley shot President Reagan, a whole lotta evangelicals (at least the ones who had received this xerox'd chain letter) were holding their breath to see if Reagan might actually die, then be miraculously brought back to life, as described in Revelation 13:3, "I saw one of his heads as if it had been slain, and his fatal wound was healed. And the whole earth was amazed and followed after the beast..."

As it turned out, the Beast wouldn't enter the White House until Inauguration Day, January 1993.

And now she's trying to do it again. ;)

[mkjessup]

I hope those numbers of America-loving Iranians stay at those high approval levels if we have to turn part of their country into a parking lot.

[Shamrock-DW]

The authors of the NIE should be handled as in Vince Flynn's novel "Term Limits".