Posted on 12/23/2007 1:31:32 PM PST by delacoert
WEST DES MOINES, Iowa – If a small army of Republican voters like Beverly McLinden were to troop unexpectedly to the GOP caucuses here early next month, Mitt Romney would be in great shape.
McLinden, a devout Baptist who rejects evolution, fits the profile of the evangelical conservatives now backing Mike Huckabee – a key bloc as Iowa prepares to host the first voting early next month in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination.
But McLinden, 52, said that while she is likely to support Romney, she expects a majority of her friends and acquaintances who share her religious faith will back Huckabee, a one-time Southern Baptist preacher.
“Whoever we nominate has to be able to battle Hillary and beat her,” said McLinden as she and her husband, Chris, awaited Romney in a hotel ballroom one evening last week with about 1,000 others.
“Mike Huckabee is a fine person, but I think if you are going to serve God, you serve God. Once he took his place on the national stage, I just don't know who he's serving – I'm not looking for a pastor in chief. I'm looking for a commander in chief.”
Evangelical conservatives are expected to constitute more than 40 percent of the Republican caucus-goers on Jan. 3. They have been a major factor in powering the former Arkansas governor past Romney in many Iowa polls and have helped lift him to the top tier of GOP presidential candidates nationally.
Their movement into the Huckabee camp is a big reason Romney now finds himself fighting to keep his presidential hopes alive in Iowa after months of running a textbook campaign rooted in his own formidable financial and personal assets.
There are other reasons Romney is struggling, some of which were on display as he campaigned across the state last week in a pre-holiday blitz before presidential candidates in both parties throttle back to avoid offending voters with aggressive stumping around Christmas.
After listening to Romney's campaign pitch at an early morning “Ask Mitt Anything” event at a country club in Indianola, Lanae Price, 37, said many public officials can't “relate” to the problems of middle-class families struggling with health care and skyrocketing gas prices.
“How are you going to be any different?” she asked.
Romney recited his successful push as governor for a law designed to make health care insurance affordable for all state residents.
Afterward, Price praised Romney's answer and said she may well support him. But she worried that his personal wealth accumulated during his business career would leave him tone deaf to the problems of ordinary Americans.
“It is something that concerns me,” she added.
Awaiting a similar event in Council Bluffs in an aircraft repair hangar at the local airport, Bryan Shea, a building contractor, complained about competing for jobs against unscrupulous competitors who cut costs by hiring illegal immigrants. A GOP precinct chairman in Crescent, Shea said his vote would go to the candidate with the toughest and most persuasive platform for solving the problem.
During his speech, Romney pledged to crack down on the hiring of illegal immigrants, to strengthen border security and to oppose an amnesty.
Afterward, Shea said he was leaning toward Romney but said he seemed to lack passion in the way he addressed the issue.
Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University, said in an interview that Romney suffers by comparison with Huckabee, whose years in the pulpit helped hone a folksy style that connects with voters. Goldford suggested what Romney says on the stump often sounds “canned.”
“Romney, at times, comes across as though he's briefing the board on the latest corporate venture even when he's trying to sound personable,” Goldford said. “He just can't get away from corporate-speak.”
Also, Romney's changing positions on social issues such as abortion – he is now opposed – have some questioning his core values.
The stakes in Iowa are huge given that Romney has bet his candidacy on back-to-back victories in the Iowa caucuses and the nation's first primary five days later in New Hampshire. He and his strategists hope that will generate irresistible momentum for subsequent contests in South Carolina and Florida leading up to the Feb. 5 showdown when large states stretching from California to New York hold primaries.
Some analysts say a loss to Huckabee in Iowa, particularly if it's by a substantial margin, could complicate Romney's prospects in New Hampshire despite leading in most polls there.
The consequences could be magnified by the David-and-Goliath nature of the campaign. Huckabee is being outspent on Iowa television ads by a nearly 10-to-1 ratio and counting on the intensity of his evangelical supporters to make up for the advantages of Romney's well-financed statewide organization.
Romney has responded to the threat by appealing to die-hard Republicans and sprinkling his recent speeches with praise for President Bush, a no-no until now for GOP candidates worried about general-election consequences of embracing an unpopular president.
He has also risked isolating an Iowa electorate said to dislike negative campaigning by airing ads attacking Huckabee's record as governor for supporting “taxpayer-funded scholarships for illegal aliens,” for abusing his pardon power and for favoring “reduced penalties for manufacturing methamphetamine.” His ads claim that his own record in Massachusetts on those scores is above reproach and conclude, “The difference is judgment.”
Huckabee on the one hand dismisses the attacks, but also suggests that they validate him as the man to beat.
Shea, the building contractor, said that he was familiar with the ads and that Huckabee's record on immigration “burns me up.”
In Indianola, Ted Hall, 58, a retired postal employee, said he liked that Romney was not “a career politician. He's a career business man.”
But Hall also said he was irritated by the ads – even though he is strongly inclined to back Romney.
“It kind of insults my intelligence. I am able to pick out the good parts of the candidate that I want,” Hall said. “It turns me off.”
Not far below the surface, Romney's Mormonism remains an issue that may cost him votes in Iowa and elsewhere.
“Among evangelical Christians there is a significant subset that doesn't necessarily consider Mormons as Christians,” said David Redlawsk, a pollster at the University of Iowa.
Redlawsk added that polling on the subject is inconclusive, in large part because voters are reluctant to admit to what might be construed as religious bigotry.
Experts and political professionals credit Romney with running a sound campaign and say his current difficulties are rooted in circumstances beyond his control – namely Huckabee's personal connection to voters and his natural appeal to evangelical conservatives who see him as one of their own.
“Romney has built his organization, and it's there,” said Chuck Laudner, executive director of the Iowa Republican Party. “Huckabee just took off. It was basically Huckabee was the one taking all those votes that were sitting in the void. That's half the battle. The (other) half of the battle is the turnout effort, and Romney certainly still has that. The question is whether Huckabee can match it.”
I found the selection of the comments from Iowa caucusers to be a little different than the usual articles.
I think the Huckster can match the turnout effort , as people will be scrambling to stop Romney . I don’t like the Huckster , but I hope he denies Romney a win in Iowa .
At this point a Huckabee win is expected in Iowa. If it isn’t a decisive win it will be of limited significance. If Romney upsets Huckabee by even 0.5% it will be a big deal. Expectations.
According to the IA polls I have seen, Romney supporters were the most committed (>90% sure) while Huckabee supporters were only about 30% sure. Given that Romney GOTV operation is superior he should be able to overcome Huckabee lead if he is within 3-4% in polls.
Anyway, if Huckabee wins Iowa, he is the clear front-runner and it is the end of Fred Thompson’s long shot candidacy. If Fred cannot make it in conservative Iowa, he sure cannot make it in NH (currently at 3%) or Michigan (4%).
Those are pretty similar to my sentiments. I like the Republican party registrations and voter interest they both bring, but can't stand either candidate. LOL.
Huckster won’t carry NH , but a Huckster win in Iowa will make it difficult for Romney get the momentum going that he will need.
Also watch for McPain to do well in NH , as it appears he is surging there . Romney should be very worried at this point .
You are competely discounting the South , where Thompson will be strong .
“You are competely discounting the South , where Thompson will be strong .”
Hmm. Fred is now third in SC (or practically tied with Guliani/McCain who are 4th and 5th) and fifth in FL so only a massive momentum (e.g. shock win in Iowa) could catapult him to top-2 in SC or FL. I cannot see how a seriously taken candidate can survive with 3% support in key states (NH, MI). It’s a long wait before SC and even if, say Romney or Huckabee don’t win in IA or NH they would still be ahead of Thompson.
The primary calender is different this year. A week from NH is MI and all attention will be in MI. It will be as important as SC in earlier years and coming out of MI with 3% support hardly is a way to rise in SC. Even without the loser label (after losing in IA, NH, MI), Thompson is third in SC and somebody (McCain, Romney and Huckabee or all of them) have the momentum for SC.
It is absolutely impossible to survive to SC without being in top-2 in any of IA, NH, MI.
Good to see we have such AWESOME Republican HOTBEDS deciding our nominee. No wonder all we have up front is a bunch on namby pamby RINO's.
And people wonder why the Republican party is in such a tale spin.
Whatever will be will be .
Let’s hope that Romney doesn’t win . If Romney wins , we will see a mass exodus to a third party Evangelical , or a major sit out in the general .
Haven’t you heard ? Romney is the new Rudy ....
Well, Thompson had the opportunity but he didn’t take it. Skipping Ames and ignoring Iowa until last week does not sound that wise.
Even well-known liberal oriented candidates like Guliani are polling well in Iowa. Why isn’t Thompson doing better in early states? 3.2% in NH?? 6.5% in MI?
You just cannot blame that they are all libs there (see his numbers in SC). I don’t think the problem is Fred’s message (I agree with his message and suppose so does pretty much everybody else). The problem is with the messenger.
Two things to understand about media stories. When they quote polls or indepth studies of voters the “conclusions” the story expects you to draw MIGHT be correct.But when a reporter just talks to people at an event and then reports “what they told the Repoter about what others may do” you can bet the farm that the concusions you are supposed to draw are Bull Crap.
I read no farther than the person saying I am likely to vote for Romney but my friends and fellow church mambers are not likely to do so is a manufactured response.
Bet the farm that the question was asked several times in several different ways until the Reporter got the answer the reporter was looking for.
When all is said and done, Romney will be the last man standing. No one else has his energy, intelligence, and charisma.
“That’s what they said about Bill Clinton. It didn’t make him a good president.”
In anycase, it did make him a president.
What a bunch of baloney (to put it mildly). Romney is a power hungry empty suit. People know this. The main reason he is getting traction with the party aperatus is because he has a lot of money and can build an organization.
Most of us out here in fly over country understand that we were asked to vote against a flip flopper in 2004. Now the same people are telling us to vote for one in 2008.
That ol dog dont hunt.
I paused at about the same place you say that you did. IMO, after reading the whole article, the title did seem like the point of the article.
There were some pretty unvarnished caucuser comments/quotations in the article. E.g.,
Isn’t Romney the master of the tale spin? ;)
Romney would make a very good Postmaster General.
But President? Give me a break.
You are clueless.
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