Posted on 12/27/2007 5:10:55 AM PST by billorites
SEN. JOHN McCAIN, given up for dead a few weeks ago as he ran a cash-starved, disorganized campaign, today is viewed by canny Republican professionals as the best bet to win the party's presidential nomination. What's more, they consider him their most realistic prospect to buck the overall Democratic tide and win the general election. Indeed, if Mike Huckabee holds on to actually win the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, the road forward could be clear for McCain.
Mitt Romney's lavishly financed, meticulously organized campaign always has operated with a thin margin of error based on winning Iowa and then the New Hampshire primary five days later. If Romney loses to Huckabee in Iowa, he becomes vulnerable to McCain in New Hampshire. If McCain wins there, he will be favored to sweep through subsequent primaries despite meager finances and organization.
This scenario does not connote a late-blooming affection for McCain among the party faithful. Indeed, he remains suspect to them on global warming, stem-cell research, tax policy and immigration controls, not to mention his original sin of campaign finance reform (with authorship of the McCain-Feingold Act). Rather, his nomination would result from him being the last man standing, with all other candidates falling. Rudy Giuliani's baggage is getting too heavy to carry. Fred Thompson never got started. Huckabee's Republicanism is even less orthodox than McCain's and seems unviable beyond Iowa. Romney is burdened with anti-Mormon prejudice and the accusation he is "plastic."
McCain's return from oblivion also suggests a personal determination that was demonstrated during six years of torture and solitary confinement in a communist prison. Beginning the year as the GOP's putative establishment candidate, McCain presided over a spendthrift, ineffective campaign. His decline climaxed, however unfairly, when he came over as the apostle of immigration amnesty. Despite a free fall in the polls and the inability to raise funds, McCain has impressed the political community with six months of tireless grass-roots campaigning.
He never has been popular inside the party, even when it seemed he might be its anointed candidate. He is still bitterly opposed by conservative activists Grover Norquist and Ralph Reed and is anathema to Cato Institute members and other libertarians because of campaign finance reform. His opposition to earmarked pork and his demolition of the corrupt deal between Boeing and the Air Force have not enchanted fellow Republican politicians. Transcending ideology, he draws opposition because he will turn 72 next August.
But when Republicans get together privately, they tend to agree that McCain is the Republican most likely to defeat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Even while some consider the old naval aviator as cranky and hot-tempered, he has not exhibited those negative characteristics in debates. Rather, he exudes a heroic aura that goes beyond managing New York City or the Utah Olympics. That quality is shown in his Christmas card television ad depicting a North Vietnamese prison guard making a cross in the dirt. McCain has managed to support the invasion of Iraq while criticizing President Bush's management of the invasion, and he maintains his fiscal integrity in a pork-driven, spendthrift Republican Party.
Having fallen behind Huckabee in Iowa, Romney has concluded he must stop McCain in New Hampshire. He launched daily attacks on McCain last week after having ignored him for months. Apart from assailing McCain for not being a team player, Romney deplored his votes against Bush's tax cuts. McCain has admitted to me that those votes were a mistake, as Romney confesses he made a mistake in his former support for abortion rights. The difference, Romney insiders insist, is that their man freely acknowledges error.
That faint distinction may not be sufficient to stop McCain in New Hampshire if Romney loses Iowa. That is why McCain is praying for the former governor of Arkansas on Jan. 3. The GOP nominee can be determined by how many Iowa social conservatives that night support a high-tax, big-spending opponent of school choice who is called a member of the religious left by critical Southern Baptists. The Republican Party's internal competition has become as peculiar as the Democrats' used to be.
If one isn't conservative on the issues of taxes and border security, one simply isn't conservative.
This has been my gut feeling for the past week or so. The "last man standing" description is a good one.
As anyone who reads my posts knows, I am one of his biggest critics on FR. But if he is the nominee, he will have my support and my vote. He is lightyears better than any RAT.
Thompson will win.
You might be right, but as of today, Fred is not “surging” anywhere. He is still in 5th place at Rasmussen. McCain has advanced to third behind Huck and Rudy.
Huck...20%
Rudy...18%
McCain.14%
Romney.13%
Fred...11%
Just saw John’s comments on the Bhutto assasination. He does sound presidential, as did Romney, in his comments. He didn’t stumble or even stop to gather his thoughts. He spat it all out and it was dead on right. Compared to any of the dims running, he is light years better. Romney didn’t stumble either. I could support either one of these guys simply because they appear to have some intelligence and the ability to handle the job.
Novak - Beltway Fever!!!
And the people who respect the 1st Amendment and participatory politics don’t want McCain. I swore when he made CFR a priority that I was never voting for that loon again, I was hoping the restriction would just apply to his job in the Senate, but if he stays in the presidential race I’m sticking to my word.
If Novak wants him he must be telling us what Hillary wants.
It’s been ABCs matchup since Nov 2006.
Obama and Huckabee sounds like a Tom Saywer fence-painting party.
Try the Constitution Party. I hear they're going to have just the ticket for you!
- John (who will support the Republican nominee)
I look at this election and feel sick.
Me too, if this is the ‘best’ this nation has to offer we are in deep doo-doo.
Bingo! McCain, Guliani, Huckabee and Romney all have problems with conservatives that are too big to ignore. Thompson will be the last man standing.
Fred, don’t just do something, stand there!
Who are these “conservatives” supporting McCain? Seriously, I want to know. He would be as big a disaster as Huckabee would if nominated. Let’s review...McCain-Feingold, working with Kennedy to help illegal immigrants, Keating 5, Gang of 14, questionable mental stability, and on and on and on. No real conservative would ever support McCain!
Interesting looking post, will need to bmflr.
.
.
.
.
According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd
My thoughts exactly. NEVER liked McCain, but I will not stay home and let Hillary or Obama win by default. God forbid.
As one tied string with messed up hair said to another, "I'm a frayed knot."
I’ve got several threads with more on it.
You are correct:
Kansas: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1935133/posts
Arizona: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1934696/posts
Kentucky: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1942576/posts
Ohio: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1934677/posts
Massachusetts: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1932892/posts
New Mexico: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1941964/posts
Oregon: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1941979/posts
Florida: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1928497/posts
Virginia: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1928219/posts
Washington: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1941972/posts
Wisconsin: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1941499/posts
Iowa: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1927619/posts
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.