Posted on 12/27/2007 5:10:55 AM PST by billorites
SEN. JOHN McCAIN, given up for dead a few weeks ago as he ran a cash-starved, disorganized campaign, today is viewed by canny Republican professionals as the best bet to win the party's presidential nomination. What's more, they consider him their most realistic prospect to buck the overall Democratic tide and win the general election. Indeed, if Mike Huckabee holds on to actually win the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, the road forward could be clear for McCain.
Mitt Romney's lavishly financed, meticulously organized campaign always has operated with a thin margin of error based on winning Iowa and then the New Hampshire primary five days later. If Romney loses to Huckabee in Iowa, he becomes vulnerable to McCain in New Hampshire. If McCain wins there, he will be favored to sweep through subsequent primaries despite meager finances and organization.
This scenario does not connote a late-blooming affection for McCain among the party faithful. Indeed, he remains suspect to them on global warming, stem-cell research, tax policy and immigration controls, not to mention his original sin of campaign finance reform (with authorship of the McCain-Feingold Act). Rather, his nomination would result from him being the last man standing, with all other candidates falling. Rudy Giuliani's baggage is getting too heavy to carry. Fred Thompson never got started. Huckabee's Republicanism is even less orthodox than McCain's and seems unviable beyond Iowa. Romney is burdened with anti-Mormon prejudice and the accusation he is "plastic."
McCain's return from oblivion also suggests a personal determination that was demonstrated during six years of torture and solitary confinement in a communist prison. Beginning the year as the GOP's putative establishment candidate, McCain presided over a spendthrift, ineffective campaign. His decline climaxed, however unfairly, when he came over as the apostle of immigration amnesty. Despite a free fall in the polls and the inability to raise funds, McCain has impressed the political community with six months of tireless grass-roots campaigning.
He never has been popular inside the party, even when it seemed he might be its anointed candidate. He is still bitterly opposed by conservative activists Grover Norquist and Ralph Reed and is anathema to Cato Institute members and other libertarians because of campaign finance reform. His opposition to earmarked pork and his demolition of the corrupt deal between Boeing and the Air Force have not enchanted fellow Republican politicians. Transcending ideology, he draws opposition because he will turn 72 next August.
But when Republicans get together privately, they tend to agree that McCain is the Republican most likely to defeat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. Even while some consider the old naval aviator as cranky and hot-tempered, he has not exhibited those negative characteristics in debates. Rather, he exudes a heroic aura that goes beyond managing New York City or the Utah Olympics. That quality is shown in his Christmas card television ad depicting a North Vietnamese prison guard making a cross in the dirt. McCain has managed to support the invasion of Iraq while criticizing President Bush's management of the invasion, and he maintains his fiscal integrity in a pork-driven, spendthrift Republican Party.
Having fallen behind Huckabee in Iowa, Romney has concluded he must stop McCain in New Hampshire. He launched daily attacks on McCain last week after having ignored him for months. Apart from assailing McCain for not being a team player, Romney deplored his votes against Bush's tax cuts. McCain has admitted to me that those votes were a mistake, as Romney confesses he made a mistake in his former support for abortion rights. The difference, Romney insiders insist, is that their man freely acknowledges error.
That faint distinction may not be sufficient to stop McCain in New Hampshire if Romney loses Iowa. That is why McCain is praying for the former governor of Arkansas on Jan. 3. The GOP nominee can be determined by how many Iowa social conservatives that night support a high-tax, big-spending opponent of school choice who is called a member of the religious left by critical Southern Baptists. The Republican Party's internal competition has become as peculiar as the Democrats' used to be.
If Clinton wins -- it would mean there are too damned many fools voting in America to be overcome by my vote given while holding my nose.....
I'm too damned old to vote for the lesser evil....
If neither political party can present an acceptable candidate - I simply won't vote..
Neither Clinton or McCain are acceptable to me.....and I would be very disappointed in America is these two were put forward as the BEST the nation could produce...
No thanks - I'll opt out.
Etch-a-sketch, please.
Instead, at the time, Fred was busy hiring and firing campaign staffers, setting up a website, and Huck stole his thunder by coming in second in the straw poll. Now Fred's fighting for 3rd place in Iowa, with no shot at NH or MI. So he'll be limping into SC where, last I checked, he's trailing.
Anyway, it's too bad. Because I don't like Rudy. The more I learn about Romney, the less I like him. Huckabee makes me want to hurl. It's an ugly looking field. I'm afraid we may end up with Huckabee.
Told ya. See #61.
As much as I hate to say it, the frontrunner is STILL Rootie. Nothing has changed except the date and time and Rudy and Hillary are STILL likely to face each other.
Personally I’d much prefer Romney and believe he still has a chance. The Huckster will fade and Mclame is a flash that will alwo fade out.
A lot of polls show McCain beating Obama or Edwards handily; most polls show McCain vs. Clinton close or give McCain the edge. He appeals strongly to the center. And he’d give Congress h*ll for the pork that Bush was complaining about this morning.
I hate to say it, but Novak just might be right. None of these guys inspire confidence, let alone just plain inspire.
All the (media) polls you site would “magically” and immediately turn against McCain were he ever to secure the nomination.
It has nothing to do with the other candidates. It is John’s turn and the MSM will see to it that he is the one that goes against the Dem.
I ruled McVain out years ago. That will not change.
Ya, it sure worked great in 2000.
I'd count myself among these. If it came down to Giuliani, Huckabee, Romney or McCain... well... Giuliani's too liberal on too many issues, Huckabee is a slick, corrupt fascist, and Romney is as phony as they come. Compared to those three, McCain isn't looking so bad. He's far from perfect, but I'm thinking he may be the best of the top 4.
Where is Ronald Reagan when we need him most?
He's dead, sir... just let it go.
Romney cannot win. The LDS thing is imho a fatal flaw. I have heard too many Christians who have said they would elect a Jew but not a Mormon. I still don’t totally get it, and have gotten some reasons from various FReepers. But LDS is a huge problem.
“If...”?
Good possibility. And our Supreme Court would have two new moderate/liberal judges, instead of two new solid conservative ones.
Are you talking about this as his kind of h*ll he will give Congress.... Whose pockets do you you think he will pick for his NEW and BETTER than a Hillry present? haha
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1944627/posts
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.