Posted on 12/29/2007 11:35:38 PM PST by tlb
RasmussenMarkets.com is a “prediction market” or “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions in a way that becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. This page summarizes results for key upcoming events. Results for other primaries, caucuses, Senate races and more can be found at RasmussenMarkets.com.
To Win 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination
Hillary Clinton .. 67.2
Barack Obama .. 24.8
John Edwards .. 5.9
To Win 2008 Republican Presidential Nomination
Rudy Giuliani .. 30.0
Mike Huckabee .. 14.3
John McCain .. 18.5
Mitt Romney .. 29.9
To Win Iowa Democratic Caucus
Hillary Clinton .. 38.6
Barack Obama .. 44.8
John Edwards .. 26.2
To Win Iowa Republican Caucus
Rudy Giuliani .. 0.2
Mike Huckabee .. 54.9
John McCain .. 4.5
Mitt Romney .. 40.0
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
GIGO
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As in 2006 Russmussen weights Republicans 4 points to low and the LA Times rates dems 17 points too high
Who was hyped in Iowa in 2006 for the dems and where did he end up?
The MSM loves a loser for Republicans
I don’t hold faith in the long-range predictive value of this “market.” For example, should it be that Obama wins Iowa (like it predicts) Hillary will try harder for NH. And the harder she tries, the more she steps in it. She then loses NH, so she tries even harder, and so on... The dynamic aspects of this primary, not captured by this “market,” could well have Hillary running against herself and so-called conventional wisdom. Bottom line: I say she loses the primary.
Most likely in the general, a Clash of the Ken Dolls: Romney vs. Edwards.
Seems Rasmussen jumped the shark now, as well. Futures markets on elections have proven to be a fools bet.
I won’t be fooled so easily.
Cool. I love prediction markets.
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According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
In this poll Hunter is up 3% and even with Paul and Thompson.
http://www.wxyz.com/news/local/story.aspx?content_id=3481ef60-8195-46a9-af04-b87b907bcfdd
Bump
>>GIGO
>>As in 2006 Russmussen weights Republicans 4 points to low and the LA Times rates dems 17 points too high
>>>Seems Rasmussen jumped the shark now, as well. Futures markets on elections have proven to be a fools bet. I won’t be fooled so easily.
And that’s when the futures market got it right. Just imagine what you would have said if they were wrong.
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