Posted on 12/30/2007 5:02:56 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
History suggests this would be a bad idea. 'Rat regimes dither and appear indecisive, because they are, and thus encourage aggressors who expect the propitiation you predict. But internal politics and plain reality impel them to respond with force. Roosevelt did it in WW II, Truman did it in Korea, Kennedy did it in VietNam. If it came to pass, Clinton would do it in the Straits of Taiwan.
Too true. People seem to have forgotten that the lack of oil was a reason why Japan began WW2.
One of my son’s roommates at VMI is from Taiwan and will head back after graduation to serve in the Taiwanese army. He’s here visiting with us now and we were just talking about this the other night. I’ll print it out and give it to him. Thanks!
Would China necessarily need to invade Taiwan to drive it’s point home??????The current situation more or less,is not too bad for China afterall.
Most people think China would act only if Taiwan provokes it i.e. push/declare independence.No major country recognises Taiwan & all China would need to do in theory,is to weaken the Taiwanese military-an invasion is not the only means to do that.
Who would deploy those mines in Chinese ports???
Iran has likely dedicated its national export oil production to China's use in exchange for nukes,via North Korea.
Just set a few satellite passes dedicated to ground penetrating radar scans looking for enoromous storage tanks and there you will find the answer.
The Chinese are too meticulous to let oil supply slow them down. They have all they need to invade Taiwan.
This assumes much about mainland tactics. Logistics is the awareness of obstacles and the planning to operationally overcome those obstacles.
In this scenario, perhaps the execution would be an unconventional attack. To have enough forces in the major cities to make them impossible to remove, by the US, without destroying those cities.
In such circumstances, long before hostilities, they would infiltrate an extraordinary number of fifth columnists, using commercial travel. Such people would be tasked with becoming part of the civilian infrastructure of Taiwan. This could take years.
Perhaps a military invasion would be designed to be stealthy, tasking as little as a brigade for each major city. Most likely by using cargo ships instead of military transports. Their purpose would mostly be “insurance”, if the fifth column needed support.
The idea would be to have “an invasion without invading”, perhaps with the complicity of a Taiwanese political party and several large corporations.
The only real obstacle would be the command of the Taiwanese military. Optimally, the military would be ordered to stand down by the civilian leadership.
From that point, the two things the “new” government would need to insure was that as far as the public was concerned, it was business as usual, like Hong Kong; and that there was going to be no “real” invasion, with mainland troops destroying things.
They might even sweeten the deal with a whole slew of “aid” coming from the mainland. Essentially trade and travel deals to open the doors wide to a friendly reunion. No threats of punishment to anyone, as well.
It would also need a major diplomatic initiative around the world, to let everyone know that the “peaceful reintegration” of China had taken place, and any foreign actions would be seen as “unprovoked, aggressive war” against China.
Another reason for us to be drilling in ANWAR, the Caribbean, the Gulf, and off the Coast of California. Also, build a lot more refineries.
I hope you are right, but the last democrat to "do it" was Kennedy and he failed to press on to victory. As the current crop of (D) presidential hopefuls shows, that sort of democrat is near extinction. A rat prez like The Beast, put in power by the radical Left, I think will fold in the face of aggression in the tradition of Saint Jimmy Good.
Er, that is rather Saint Jimmy The Good. (proof thrice, enter once).
Like those of Japaneese heritage during WWII, most would be loyal to the U.S.
We usually have several hundred thousand folks visiting China at any one time also.
Wouldn’t count on them as fighters either.
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