Posted on 12/30/2007 5:02:56 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Fuel needs limit China's combat ability
HONG KONG, China, Dec. 28
ANDREI CHANG
Column: Military Might
By calculating the amount of fuel oil required by the Chinese navy and air force in a large-scale attack across the Taiwan Strait under high-tech conditions, it becomes apparent that such an assault could not be sustained for an extended period.
For an attack on Taiwan, China would likely mobilize 10 fighter divisions of the PLA Air Force. In fact, only one to two regiments under each division are armed with third generation fighter aircraft. According to reliable sources, the total number of Su-27, J-11A and Su-30 fighters now stands at 281.
Each Su fighter can carry up to 9.4 tons of fuel, with a maximum combat radius of 1,500 kilometers. Since the Su series are mostly deployed at second-front airports, it can be roughly estimated that each sortie would consume about 9.4 tons of oil. As a result, sorties by the full third-generation fighter fleet would consume 2,641.4 tons of fuel. In a high-intensity confrontation, if China launched two rounds of large-scale air raids, fuel consumption by the Su aircraft alone would likely double to 5,282 tons.
As for the 117 Tu-16 (H-6) serial bombers, one H-6 is usually loaded with 45,450 liters of fuel, each liter equivalent to 0.86 kilograms of gasoline so that the total capacity is approximately 39 tons to meet the combat needs of its maximum 6,000-kilometer flight range. If three H-6 divisions undertook large-scale transfer operations, the required round-trip flight to the opponent's targets would be around 2,000 kilometers. Each H-6 sortie would consume over 13 tons of fuel and the whole H-6 fleet would consume 1,524 tons.
The number of J-10s in the PLA air force fleet may reach 100 in 2008. These planes have a fuel capacity equivalent to that of the F-16 fighters, approximately 3.24 tons, and a combat radius of 925 kilometers. Photos of the J-10 published in official Chinese media show that it has external oil tanks. The J-10As are mainly deployed at second-front airports; thus it can be calculated that the J-10 fleet would consume 324 tons of fuel in its sorties.
Launching a large-scale assault operation would also involve the transport of a large number of troops. The Il-76 airlifter's internal fuel capacity is 70 tons, which can sustain approximately six hours in the air. If half of the fuel capacity were consumed in each sortie, the existing 20 Il-76s would need 700 tons of fuel for each operation. At least three to four strategic air transport operations would be required each day, requiring a daily maximum fuel consumption of 2,800 tons.
The JH-7A fighter-bomber's internal fuel capacity is approximately 9 tons, calculated with reference to similar Su-24 fighter-bombers. Suppose each sortie involved two regiments, or 48 JH-7A, the total fuel consumption would be 432 tons. Two rounds of air raids each day would bring overall consumption to 864 tons. These calculations are based on the minimum standard and do not take into consideration the fuel capacity of external fuel tanks fitted on these aircraft.
Regarding fuel consumption by the navy's fleets there are no exact figures. As the tonnage standard of the PLA Navy fleets is comparatively small, it can be calculated that the daily average fuel consumption of the fully mobilized South Sea Fleet, East Sea Fleet and North Sea Fleet would be roughly equivalent to the daily minimum consumption of the U.S. Kitty Hawk aircraft carrier battle group, or approximately 400 tons for each fleet.
Based on these calculations, should high-intensity warfare break out across the Taiwan Strait, the daily fuel consumption of the PLA Air Force would be a minimum of 10,794 tons, taking into consideration only the third-generation fighters and H-6 bombers, JH-7A fighter-bombers and attackers. Actual consumption would be far greater if the large number of J-7E and J-8F serial fighters and Q-5 attackers currently in service are figured in.
The three major fleets of the PLA Navy would have a daily fuel consumption of 1,200 tons. As a result, the navy and air force would consume a total of 11,994 tons of fuel each day on average.
An initial large-scale landing operation against Taiwan would likely involve 20 divisions or brigades of amphibious, light and heavy mechanized troops. If each mechanized division or brigade needed fuel reserves for 500 kilometers, and one division or brigade consumed an average of 200 tons of fuel each day, the daily total of the 20 divisions and brigades would be 4,000 tons. Here, helicopters deployed by the ever-growing Army Aviation Forces have not been included.
The combined fuel needs of all combat forces engaged in an assault on Taiwan would amount to a minimum of 15,994 tons each day, not including the Second Artillery Forces and logistic support troops. These calculations alone indicate that the PLA forces would need a total of 240,000 tons of fuel to sustain 15 days of assault operations against Taiwan.
What is the total annual fuel consumption of the Chinese armed forces? A report published by the PLA General Logistics Department in 2007 says that the PLA forces saved 55,000 tons of oil in 2006, approximately 5.1 percent of their total consumption. Based on this figure, the total would be over 1 million tons, about 2,954 tons on average per day. It can be concluded that fuel consumption in a 15-day large-scale assault operation would surpass 20 percent of the annual total consumption of the Chinese military.
The hard fact is that China has only 7 million tons of oil reserves available for a period of conflict. The country has set its 30-day oil reserves at 10 million tons for civilian consumption, an average of 330,000 tons per day. During a 15-day assault, the country would require 4.96 million tons. The conclusion is that China's current oil reserves could sustain a high-intensity assault operation against Taiwan for no more than 15 days.
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(Andrei Chang is editor-in-chief of Kanwa Defense Review Monthly, registered in Toronto Canada.)
Just one reason I’ve never feared the Chi-Coms, they haven’t the heavy lift capabilities to invade the U.S.
Not enough to invade an island right off their coast much less half a world away.
“Amateurs talk about strategy, dilettantes talk about tactics, and professionals talk about logistics.”
The question since 1949 concerning Mainland China invading Taiwan has always been:
“Can The Dragon Swim?”
This article seems to answer with
“Yes, but not for very long.”
It’s not as if China were not trying to close the gap between the petroleum supply they have and the stocks they want to have.
They are stockpiling right now. More than that, they are eying the possibility of simply absorbing a few locations into their hegemony, giving them the necessary supply lines to mount and continue a protracted conflict.
If the US leaves the Persian gulf, China will fill the vacuum. One more reason to stay in Iraq long beyond the end of the Bush Administration in early 2009.
Like China wouldn't close all the America-driven Walmart & Nike factories if it really needed the fuel.
Why do you think China is courting Iran and Venezuela.
Cha-ching! Why is it that people think that in the end, China will keep toy factories running instead of arm factories?
We can monitor tanker traffic and imports, but we probably can’t definitively gage bio-fuels.
And if the US decided to throw a CVBG or two into the mix, then the Chinese would be cut down to a week (or less). However, the economic damage will have been done.
China’s economy is completely dependent on exports. They’d suffer more in a war than we would.
Also curious how people think the oil from Iran and Venezuela gets there in a war.
This is all leaving aside the article in question only addresses the PLAAF and PLAN.
The Taiwanese army is larger with more armor than German forces in Normandy in World War II. Somehow you’ve got to keep the PLA supplied while it’s fighting on Taiwan.
There’s also the issue of what happens when all of China’s ports get mined.
Don’t see a whole lot of breathless articles from the Bill Gertzes of the world about PLAN minesweeping capability.
Because they don’t have much.
They could do it the old-fashioned way. How long would it take to conquer Indonesia?
I was thinking somewhat on those lines. The problem with Taiwan, for China, is that they want to capture it with its condition as intact as possible. What good is a Taiwan to China, after a nuclear sand-blasting?
The same considerations may not hold good for China’s other military ambitions.
The world should not have had to face China for another twenty to fifty years, but with the aid of the clintoons, I suspect China has mobilized, and continues preparations for the end game. The end game plan....I know not what China's end game is, but I suspect China has a plan for their planned end game. Most all nuclear nations do plan, for all foreseen end games. The next ten years will bring many surprises.
I will hope for manageable surprises only, from China. But again, China holds the dragon's lair. I pray the Eagle is up to the task, but should a clintoon, an obama, a richardson, an edwards, a biden, or a host of others, arrive in the White House in January, one year from now, the dragon will continue to reap the benefits, and maneuver a continuation of a One China policy.
It’s a nice calculation, but pointless IMO. First, Taiwan is not that far from mainland (100-150 miles,) with half of the island wide open. Why to even talk about 6,000 km ranges if you need only to take off, wait a few minutes, drop the bombs and return? If long range bombers are used, they will carry 5 tons of fuel and extra 40 tons of bombs. Same with fighters - they’d be able to stay over the island until they run out of ammo, no need for a 1,000 km trip to the battle area.
Other posters already mentioned that if needed Chinese rulers will deny fuel to civilian sector, without any second thought. But far more important is that China is highly unlikely to start the war - it makes little sense, costs a lot, and will likely destroy Taiwan’s industry. As I see it, Taiwan and China will eventually peacefully unify just because both will change over time. It is already happening.
Remember how easily the Nazis moved in on Norway and Denmark. (Not saying it was easy, but it was easier than one would have predicted.)
The Chicoms could do at least as well in Taiwan. Just get their people into key positions and let traditional Chinese respect for authority do the rest. No nukes needed. Infrastructure intact, as in a bloodless corporate takeover. People wake up to new managers, just like the invasion of the body snatchers.
After all, nobody wants trouble. Not the moneyed interests, not the working stiffs, not the underclasses, not the foreigners, nobody.
If they do it right and use their napkins, it won’t be denounced in the UN, it’ll be admired.
The assumption is that they openly publish all their real data
Completely Correct! The author, of this piece, has made an assumption. One can always count on an assumption to be correct, and without flaws.
Why would they need heavy lift capabilities to invade the US?
Consider how many young Chinese men of military age are in our universities and working in our tech industries on H1B visas. almost 1.4 million [US residents] were born in China (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2002)
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