Posted on 12/30/2007 5:02:56 AM PST by sukhoi-30mki
Just one reason I’ve never feared the Chi-Coms, they haven’t the heavy lift capabilities to invade the U.S.
Not enough to invade an island right off their coast much less half a world away.
“Amateurs talk about strategy, dilettantes talk about tactics, and professionals talk about logistics.”
The question since 1949 concerning Mainland China invading Taiwan has always been:
“Can The Dragon Swim?”
This article seems to answer with
“Yes, but not for very long.”
It’s not as if China were not trying to close the gap between the petroleum supply they have and the stocks they want to have.
They are stockpiling right now. More than that, they are eying the possibility of simply absorbing a few locations into their hegemony, giving them the necessary supply lines to mount and continue a protracted conflict.
If the US leaves the Persian gulf, China will fill the vacuum. One more reason to stay in Iraq long beyond the end of the Bush Administration in early 2009.
Like China wouldn't close all the America-driven Walmart & Nike factories if it really needed the fuel.
Why do you think China is courting Iran and Venezuela.
Cha-ching! Why is it that people think that in the end, China will keep toy factories running instead of arm factories?
We can monitor tanker traffic and imports, but we probably can’t definitively gage bio-fuels.
And if the US decided to throw a CVBG or two into the mix, then the Chinese would be cut down to a week (or less). However, the economic damage will have been done.
China’s economy is completely dependent on exports. They’d suffer more in a war than we would.
Also curious how people think the oil from Iran and Venezuela gets there in a war.
This is all leaving aside the article in question only addresses the PLAAF and PLAN.
The Taiwanese army is larger with more armor than German forces in Normandy in World War II. Somehow you’ve got to keep the PLA supplied while it’s fighting on Taiwan.
There’s also the issue of what happens when all of China’s ports get mined.
Don’t see a whole lot of breathless articles from the Bill Gertzes of the world about PLAN minesweeping capability.
Because they don’t have much.
They could do it the old-fashioned way. How long would it take to conquer Indonesia?
I was thinking somewhat on those lines. The problem with Taiwan, for China, is that they want to capture it with its condition as intact as possible. What good is a Taiwan to China, after a nuclear sand-blasting?
The same considerations may not hold good for China’s other military ambitions.
The world should not have had to face China for another twenty to fifty years, but with the aid of the clintoons, I suspect China has mobilized, and continues preparations for the end game. The end game plan....I know not what China's end game is, but I suspect China has a plan for their planned end game. Most all nuclear nations do plan, for all foreseen end games. The next ten years will bring many surprises.
I will hope for manageable surprises only, from China. But again, China holds the dragon's lair. I pray the Eagle is up to the task, but should a clintoon, an obama, a richardson, an edwards, a biden, or a host of others, arrive in the White House in January, one year from now, the dragon will continue to reap the benefits, and maneuver a continuation of a One China policy.
It’s a nice calculation, but pointless IMO. First, Taiwan is not that far from mainland (100-150 miles,) with half of the island wide open. Why to even talk about 6,000 km ranges if you need only to take off, wait a few minutes, drop the bombs and return? If long range bombers are used, they will carry 5 tons of fuel and extra 40 tons of bombs. Same with fighters - they’d be able to stay over the island until they run out of ammo, no need for a 1,000 km trip to the battle area.
Other posters already mentioned that if needed Chinese rulers will deny fuel to civilian sector, without any second thought. But far more important is that China is highly unlikely to start the war - it makes little sense, costs a lot, and will likely destroy Taiwan’s industry. As I see it, Taiwan and China will eventually peacefully unify just because both will change over time. It is already happening.
Remember how easily the Nazis moved in on Norway and Denmark. (Not saying it was easy, but it was easier than one would have predicted.)
The Chicoms could do at least as well in Taiwan. Just get their people into key positions and let traditional Chinese respect for authority do the rest. No nukes needed. Infrastructure intact, as in a bloodless corporate takeover. People wake up to new managers, just like the invasion of the body snatchers.
After all, nobody wants trouble. Not the moneyed interests, not the working stiffs, not the underclasses, not the foreigners, nobody.
If they do it right and use their napkins, it won’t be denounced in the UN, it’ll be admired.
The assumption is that they openly publish all their real data
Completely Correct! The author, of this piece, has made an assumption. One can always count on an assumption to be correct, and without flaws.
Why would they need heavy lift capabilities to invade the US?
Consider how many young Chinese men of military age are in our universities and working in our tech industries on H1B visas. almost 1.4 million [US residents] were born in China (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2002)
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