A Last Hurdle for Obama?

Washington Post ^ | 6 January 2008 | David S. Broder

[shrinkermd]

It may seem paradoxical, but New Hampshire is poised to close down the race for the Democratic presidential nomination and launch a wide-open Republican contest.

The difference is that Barack Obama, the winner of the Iowa Democratic caucuses, can well repeat his victory over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards here. But Mike Huckabee faces much steeper odds in duplicating his Iowa win on the Republican side.

A second Romney loss would effectively end the former Massachusetts governor's candidacy -- a victim of a campaign that lost its credibility along with its ideological definition.

But McCain and Huckabee have yet to build broad constituencies among mainstream Republicans. Huckabee's following is primarily among evangelical Christians, who dominated the traditionally low-turnout Iowa caucuses. McCain's greatest appeal is to Republican-leaning independents who powered his 2000 victory and who remain loyal to him.

That opens at least something of an opportunity for Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson to demonstrate their ability in Florida, South Carolina and other states that were part of George W. Bush's political base. The mainstream Republicans in those states are still looking for a candidate.

That search becomes more urgent as the major-party politicians come to understand that Obama could be the most electable candidate the Democrats have fielded in many years

[goldstategop]

Obama is NOT electable. He's an empty suit. He's just a more likeable version of Hillary. The MSM in the tank for Hillary but I don't think they know or care who the GOP nominee is - as long the Democrats wins in November.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[bajabaja]

Though I relish HRC’s current predicament, she is not so easily counted out. There remains the super-delegates and every state’s primary but Iowa’s. If the WaPo is so prescient as to Obama’s future, where was this prescience when such analysis would have actually been novel? As in even one month ago?

[Caipirabob]

A Last Hurdle for Obama?

He's going to need a good head start to get over that hurdle.

I've recieved a good education by our fellow FReepers on the significance of "Super Delegates". Sounds like a formidable obstacle. In addition, Hillary's machine has been many years in the making. I applaud Obama and pray for his personal safety, he's made tremendous progress in discrediting Hillary.

Let's hope he can take her out in the primaries after all. This is really kind of a modern "David versus a big, fat, crusty pantsuit wearing Goliath" story.

[bill1952]

That opens at least something of an opportunity for Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson to demonstrate their ability in Florida, South Carolina and other states that were part of George W. Bush’s political base.
The mainstream Republicans in those states are still looking for a candidate.

---

I wish some of the FReepers would see the early little states for what they are. - almost nothing.

Iowa is not only a political anomaly, but I’m sure that everyone here knows that exactly NO delegates were just chosen there, right?

What does the open primary of NH have? 2 electoral votes in the general? Oh wow.

I will wait until the blood on the tracks is cleaned up on February 6th.

And in Florida, Rudy is very, very strong.
Mitt is spending a lot here.

The question is, can Fred come in and grab some real votes here?
I don’t know, but I can say that very few voters here care about Iowa or NH.
That seems to be a media thing that produces large yawns in the Sunshine State.

I’m voting Fred on January 29th.

[Scarchin]

I agree - which is why I don’t agree with Broder that Mitt is done if he loses NH.

The local rag has gone McCainiac.
Plus - how much can you respect a place where RuPaul is doing so well?

I’ve already written off NH.

[GraniteStateConservative]

What does the open primary of NH have? 2 electoral votes in the general? Oh wow.

No state has fewer than 3 EVs. NH has 4.

[bill1952]

Well there you go. One more than the least possible. :) - Thanks.

[freespirited]

I wish some of the FReepers would see the early little states for what they are. - almost nothing.

I am waiting to see if the Barama craze manifests in states with closed primaries. In Iowa, it was entirely due to independents, who are not allowed to vote in half the states. Hillary would have won handily if Iowa had been restricted only to registered RATS.

I guess Florida will be the first test of Barama's strength among registered RATS. He will not have any independents to help him out against Hillary. Will be interesting to see what happens.

[bill1952]

I'm not really close to any liberal types here, but I would say that hillary is going to win BIG here in Florida.

[Paladin2]

This analysis is BS. Romney isn’t out if McCain (of all “candidates”) wins in NH. The folks voting in the RINO (now that MA has taken over NH) primary are not necessarily Republicans, much less traditional NH voters of years gone by.

[Scarchin]

Also - there’s analysis out that looks at the possibility that Independents, McCain’s bedrock, may vote in the Dem primary for the more compelling candidate to them - Obama.

[Global2010]

I was watching one of his assigned Secret Servicemen when he was at one of his rallies.

That guy was hot the way he was buzzing the crowd as he walked in front of Obama through the thick crowd of young people and other supporters.

Talk about in the line of fire.
If I needed a guy eye scanning and on top of every hand reaching out to me that young hot fire cracker would be it...dude was wired up.

I wonder what it was that Obama asked for SService as in another article it was hinted that something led him to ask due to some undisclosed concerns.

[nathanbedford]

Obama is eminently electable. If he is an empty suit, he fooled the folks at the Harvard Law Review, the publishers and reviewers of his first book, the voters in Illinois, Iowa, and tomorrow, New Hampshire.

It is self defeating to deny obvious reality. This guy is good on his feet. Women are swooning. Youth are actually voting for the first time.

The reality is conservatives sustained a calamity in Iowa on both sides of the aisle. Obama is the rats’ most formidable potential candadate. We should fall on our knees everyday and pray for a Hillary nomination. The media will murder any Republican put up against the great black hope. No negative campaign will be tolerated.

If he is elected the media will extend the honeymoon for years. If Hillary is elected, there will be no honeymoon.

Attack Obama on policy and lack of experience (although that has not worked so far for Bitch Clinton) but spare us the bluster that Barack Obama is not the most formidable adversary we could face. He is no “empty suit” to the contrary he has keept his composure and come back from poll deficits. He is clearly charismatic and probably the best natural campainer out there.

Our party is facing a defeat in tsunami like proportions and we might not emerge from the political wilderness for a generation or at least it is too late for even a Reagen to undo the harm the liberals will do to our country. The demographics of America tell us that we might never emerge with any kind of identifiable coherent conservative philosophy. We can avert this calamity only if we rigorously face reality.

Self deception is our worst enemy.

[samtheman]

You make some good points but you’re forgetting some things:

1. The RATS never have real debates so you overestimate how well MadrassaBoy will do against a Republican in a general election debate.

2. His voting record is as consistently left-wing as they come and I don’t care how many orgasms the MSM has over him, they won’t be able to cover up that record, not against a determined Republican in the general election.

3. He really is an empty suit, no matter how shiny and bright. This is not hyperbole. The guy has the brain of a scarecrow, straight out of the Wizard of Oz. Sure, he looks good now, in the eyes of an adoring press and under the spotlight of an essentially issueless RAT campaign, but in the general election, his total and complete lack of brain cells is going to be brought into stark relief.

Having said all that I do believe that the best possible outcome of the RAT nomination in terms of what’s good for our side would be for MadrassaBoy to get the largest cumulative vote total in all the primaries and yet lose the nomination to the Great ThighBeast because of the Super Delegates.

THAT is an outcome we should all be praying for.

[Savage Beast]

" -- a victim of a campaign that lost its credibility along with its ideological definition."

"Ideological definition" aside, the klunks who run the Washington Post certainly know plenty about lack of credibility.

"Obama could be the most electable candidate the Democrats have fielded in many years"

And the first decent one.

The last Democrat Presidential nominee who wasn't just more Democrat Freakshow was Harry Truman. And he was a blip--obviously an accident--in the steady Democrat downslide from bad to worse to much worse to where-in-hell-do-they-find-'em?

[Hardastarboard]

something led him to ask due to some undisclosed concerns.

Despite our wishes to the contrary, there's still a lot of quiet and sometimes not so quiet racism in this country. I'm sure Obama's been threatened repeatedly.

[nathanbedford]

I hope you are right, but I fear that you are applying yesterday’s template. Obama is not about issues he is about what ever you want him to be.

Obama is not an empty suit, he is an empty vessel into which the media will pour all our hopes and, yes, fears,

So, unless he makes a fool of himself in the debates (which he has shone no disposition to do) the points scored just don’t matter. The national mood is one of unease and senses we must somehow change course.

Obama represents a MOVEMENT not a quibble.

He is very, very dangerous. He is going to kill us in November. Our only chance is to recognize the enemy for what he is not what we would wish him to be.

[Paladin2]

Seems like there is more discrimination against Mormons these days to me.

[NoControllingLegalAuthority]

I agree with most of your points. This election will not be about tangible policy positions. Most voters understand a President cannot necessarily deliver a specific platform after election.

This election will be about intangibles. A message of hope delivered by a hard-core socialist who has charisma could carry the day.

Poise under fire, demonstrated by Obama, is a stronger draw than policy experience.

Hillary is desperate to win and she shows it.

The real strength of Obama is drawing young people to the polls who have been cynically turned off by previous politicians of both parties.

An empty suit could indeed win election because the country is so evenly divided politically. The new, younger voters can certainly make the difference.

I don't believe such an outcome would be good for the country but it is a strong possibility. If Republicans ignore the strength of their opposition they will do so at their political peril as you have correctly stated.