Posted on 01/14/2008 7:20:19 AM PST by jdm
Rasmussen has a somewhat more realistic picture of the Republican primary race than the New York Times/CBS poll that used a whopping 282 likely voters for its sample. McCain leads nationally by five points over Mike Huckabee, 24%-19%, while the rest of the field comes in a statistical tie for third place. However, the real news appears in the head-to-head matchup with Hillary Clinton, where the Democrat can't even muster 40% support:
A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds John McCain leading Hillary Clinton nationally by double digits. The survey, conducted on the two nights following New Hampshires Primary, shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote nationwide while Clinton earns 38%.
Among Republican voters, McCain leads 86% to 6%. However, among Democrats, Clintons lead is a slightly less dominant 74% to 18%. McCain leads by twenty-one points among unaffiliated voters.
This is the third straight poll showing McCain ahead of Clinton. In December, the Arizona Senator led by six points. In November, he held a narrow two-point edge.
The crosstabs have some eye-raising data for the Clinton campaign. Clinton loses women to McCain by four points and men by 19. Clinton loses the youth vote by 23 points, a rather amazing number, and only wins the 50-64 vote by a single point while losing all other age demographics.
Hillary scores strongly among blacks, but McCain holds 19%, which would almost double the support given to the Republican ticket in the 2004 election. McCain garners two-thirds of the Other ethnic demographic, presumably competitive among the Hispanic voters.
It's easy to consider this an anomaly based on enthusiasm after the New Hampshire win, but as Rasmussen points out, this trend started two months ago. As McCain strengthened among Republicans, he has strengthened against Hillary. Huckabee also has come out ahead of Hillary in this polling, 45%-42%, the first time that has happened all year. That appears to indicate that Huckabee and McCain have gained credibility from their early wins, while Hillary has gained none from her New Hampshire victory.
The Republicans may see some hope for the general election after all, and Hillary and the Democrats have some turbulence ahead of them. If they keep offering the message of non-specific change, they may lose another presidential cycle they should have won.
Oh, and just wait for the Dems to trot out the class warfare argument against Guv Goodhair, he of the $200+ million net worth. That doesn't bother ME, but the Socialists drool to face a guy like that.
Further, the guy has flip-flopped so much that the Dems will destroy him on it (and the Stupid Party won't touch Her Shrillness on her own flip-flops, of which there are many).
To win, IMHO, the Republicans need to nominate a real conservative, so as to mobilize and motivate the base. Failure to do that for ANY party in ANY place is electoral death. Fred could and would appeal to a lot of moderates/fence sitters because his stances on the issues and his demeanor will remind them of Reagan (with good reason - the 2 are similar in many ways). Thompson has the good fortune to be able to say "Look at the 1980's - this stuff WORKS."
McStain? What's he going to say, "Vote for me, I didn't get indicted for the Keating 5 scandal?" Vote for me, my fondest wish of open gates and amnesty for illegals didn't get passed?"
Huckabee? Yeah, that's it, Gomer Pyle for President. Poll Dems, and you'll find that their favorite Republican candidate is this guy (well, Ron Paul, but he's going to the nut house way before he's going to get the nomination). All Huckster is doing is splitting the evangelicals from the base, saying "me or nobody," and for that he should be defeated ASAP.
Rudy? He'll split the base as badly as anyone.
Yeah, any of them would be better than any of the Dems. But other than Fred, with the Republicans in this field we're between Hell and high water.
Just more Washington types trying to sell us on the inevitability of McCainiac.
Fred has the right stances but not the leadership that people are looking for.
Voting for McCain destroys what remains of our sovreignty!
“I believe Rasmussen has failed to factor in the huge number of conservative Republicans like myself that will either not vote at all or vote 3rd party before they ever pull the lever for McShame.”
This nugget brought to you by the fine conservatives that has given us Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to lead Congress. Thank you....
To read later.
Age and health are major issues with McCain. It is too bad they are not being made an issue in the primaries because they will be made issues should he get the nomination. If McCain were not the sweetheart of the MSM, it would have been a major issue by now. Primaries are supposed to explore a candidate weaknesses and his strengths. If the Republican nomination narrows to a two candidate race between McCain and someone else, age will become an issue at least in the voter’s minds.
What?!?!??!??! You TRUST a stinking poll??? Surely you jest. Surely you are kidding. Tell me you are.
He's run his campaign almost exclusively on the war and spending. Conservatives can rally around those two, plus he's okay on guns and life.
Huckabee? Yeah, that's it
Say what you will, but Huck's solid on God, gays, guns, and abortion. He's also been attacking the Nanny State.... even though he proposed a national smoking ban. Yeah, he's a funny one.
I hae to admit I’d rather have a ‘known quantity’ from the Dems than Mike Huckabee.
He’s Jimmy Carter redux. At least we KNOW what to expect from a Democrat in the Whitehouse.
‘Lets put Hillary and Obama in a tank.’
Now this is a Reality Show I’d actually watch....(chuckle)
McCain & Hillary both would do the bidding of the Kennedy wing of the democRAT party. Both would be a disaster to the country. Besides the drive-by media will turn on McCain if he gets the nomination....they’re supporting him now.
I made calls for Fred over the weekend and had a VERY positive response from most of the folks I talked to...not everyone, but most. Vote for Fred. Conservatism works every time it's tried. Fred's the only conservative still in the running!
Good. Then he won’t need my vote.
“This nugget brought to you by the fine conservatives that has given us Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi to lead Congress.”
The Republican Party is at least a little bit responsible for that election. One would have hoped that they’d have learned something from that.
Mitt does poorly because he is a conservative.
Giuliani does poorly because he is so liberal the conservatives don’t fear Hillary more than him.
McCain benefits because the conservatives don’t pick Hillary over him when asked in polls, nor do they say they will stay home.
yeah..that will do it. remember what happened during clintoons last administration...retribution via the IRS against conservative organizations...thanks, your non-vote will expedite that.
McCain may have a pro life voting record, but he demonstrated his true abortion postion when he orchistrated the gang of fourteen. Pro-life votes really only matter in light of helping conservative judicial appointments. McCain did more for the pro abortion movement in that instance than all the other RINOs combined.
I don’t see conservatives rallying around a gang of fourteen, Pro Gay marriage, Al Gore global warming, admitted failure to enforce the border candidate. I will agree with you on on thing, though. The Huckster is miles more conservative than McCain.
I'm sure you'd like to think that. But despite favoring gay rights, believing in madmade global warming, favoring gun control, and other liberal stands, for whatever reasons you want to imagine the fact remains that Mitt is strongly disliked by independents, which you admit. Add to that his problem with conservatives rightly mistrusting him and people like me who will never vote for someone so slimy, and he is utterly unelectable.
Why are you trying to push this unelectable fraud?
Because in the primary he is still showing as more electable than the other “electable” conservative Fred Thompson, and it looks like he’s more electable than Fred Thompson in the general election.
If I were to decide that I had to switch because of electability, I would be moving to the left, not the right, because the two candidates to “the right” are less electable according to all the polls and primary results. I’d love for that to change, because my criteria is the most electable conservative, and if Thompson looked more electable he’s obviously a conservative.
If I didn’t think McCain could crash and burn at any moment, he might well be my 3rd choice. If Huckabee didn’t just rub me so much the wrong way, he could be my 3rd choice. If Giuliani wasn’t Giuliani but was some other guy who was conservative, he could be my 3rd choice.
Frankly, there is a gulf between Romney and the rest of the field, so it seems like a good place to make my stand. You see a gulf between Thompson and Romney and have chosen to make your stand there, but at the moment, your candidate isn’t winning in the electability sweepstakes.
If we were purists, we’d be voting for Hunter and saying to heck with electability.
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