World not running out of oil, say experts

The Times (U.K.) ^ | January 18, 2008 | Carl Mortished

[Stoat]

World not running out of oil, say experts

 

 

 

Carl Mortished, World Business Editor

 

Doom-laden forecasts that world oil supplies are poised to fall off the edge of a cliff are wide of the mark, according to leading oil industry experts who gave warning that human factors, not geology, will drive the oil market.

A landmark study of more than 800 oilfields by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cera) has concluded that rates of decline are only 4.5 per cent a year, almost half the rate previously believed, leading the consultancy to conclude that oil output will continue to rise over the next decade.

Peter Jackson, the report's author, said: “We will be able to grow supply to well over 100million barrels per day by 2017.” Current world oil output is in the region of 85million barrels a day.

The optimistic view of the world's oil resource was also given support by BP's chief economist, Peter Davies, who dismissed theories of “Peak Oil” as fallacious. Instead, he gave warning that world oil production would peak as demand weakened, because of political constraints, including taxation and government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

 

 

Speaking to the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, Mr Davies said that peaks in world production had been wrongly predicted throughout history but he agreed that oil might peak within a generation “as a result of a peaking of demand rather than supply”.

He said it was inconceivable that oil consumption would be unaffected by government policies to reduce carbon emissions. “There is a distinct possibilty that global oil consumption could peak as a result of such climate policies,” Mr Davies said.

The BP economist's remarks were echoed yesterday by Mr Jackson. “It is the above-ground risks that will influence the rate [of oil output],” he said.

Cera analysed the output of 811 oilfields, which produce 19 billion barrels a year, out of total world output of 32 billion. These included many of the giants, including Saudi Arabia's Ghawar, the largest known oilfield, which has been at the centre of the debate between peak oil analysts and their detractors.

In his book Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons of Simmons & Co, the consultancy, said the big Saudi fields reached their peak output in 1981 but Cera yesterday said that Ghawar was not failing. “There is no technical evidence that Ghawar is about to decline,” said Mr Jackson.

Cera reckons that oil output, including unconventional oil, such as tar sands, could allow oil to peak at much higher levels of as much as 112 million barrels per day, with average rates of more than 100million bpd.

The Cera analysis targeted oilfields producing more than 10,000 barrels a day of conventional oil and concluded that overall output was declining at a rate of 4.5 per cent a year and that field decline rates were not increasing.

This is much lower than the 7 to 8percent average rate that is generally assumed in the industry. Typically, Peak Oil theorists believe that the output of oil reserves can be plotted on a graph as a bell curve, rising to a peak and then falling rapidly.

It was proposed in 1950 by M King Hubbert, a US geologist, who successfully predicted the peak of onshore oil production in the United States.

His analysis is disputed by many geologists today, who argue that technology has changed the equation, allowing oil companies to produce more oil from reservoirs than was previously possible.

Meanwhile, increases in the price of oil has made the extraction of difficult reserves economically viable.

[seemoAR]

IMHO, All the talk about an oil shortage is nothing but a big scam. Oil companies can cut back on production, say there is a shortage, and charge more for their product. Not that they would ever do that. :0)

[thackney]

The only oil producers who cut back on production is OPEC.

Because we limit the areas that can be explored for oil, we give OPEC more power to control the market.

[Bigun]

World not running out of oil...

Actually there are two things the world isn't running out of. Oil is one and idiots is the other!

If it weren't for idiots who buy into every left wing propaganda campaign that comes along, and thus prevent the country from following a SANE energy policy that includes utilizing ALL the resources available to us, we would not have ANY energy problems!

[Sunnyflorida]

3Lean, thanks for clearing up the math for “Brilliant” and saving me from doing it.

[Sunnyflorida]

Don’t forget Natural Gas
Destin Dome

“The natural gas fields taken off the table today represent enough
natural gas to supply a million U.S. families for over 30 years,”

http://www.ngsa.org/docs/pressrelease/2002/DestinDomeAnnouncement5_29_02.pdf

http://www.gomr.mms.gov/homepg/whatsnew/techann/000044.html

BTW under the BUSH administration.

[seemoAR]

Somehow, I doubt that.

[AmericanVictory]

Why do we have tax and subsidy structures that promote relatively marginal “alternative” energy sources rather than more oil and better use of it?

[Stoat]

Don’t forget Natural Gas

An essential point and excellent, thought-provoking links, thank you so much for posting  :-)

[Froufrou]

~snorrfle!~ Hey, I tried driving a Hybrid. When I ran over the cat, because he couldn’t hear it coming, I couldn’t stand the POS anymore.

I love my Envoy!

[Stoat]

As far back as the 1860s, experts were saying that the world was close to running out of oil.

The perpetuation of fear has always been an effective and popular mechanism for exercising the control of populations....it's particularly effective when it hinges upon something that the average person can't see or quantify in a tangible way.

"Fear is the Mind-killer" - Frank Herbert, Dune

[thackney]

Production rates are available in the annual reports of oil companies. Alonging with the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on new exploration.

[Stoat]

I love my Envoy!

Stylish and looks very safe.  Congratulations!

(hopefully yours has a 'flame' paintjob, an oversized moter, a big chrome 'blower' coming up out of the hood, a spoiler over the rear and a comfy bed for your new cat)

[SlapHappyPappy]

That is the basic tactic of all cartels.

It is why diamonds are so expensive. Contrary to popular belief they are not rare. But their market availability is restricted with cartels buying over 90% of world production and placing the majority of what they buy in vaults.

That is also why terrorists are able to use diamonds to finance their violence. The inflated value makes it easy to pay for weapons as long as you can control even a relatively poor source of diamonds. (see Sierra Leone)

[lmailbvmbipfwedu]

Not to mention coal and natural gas...........

[Sunnyflorida]

“I tried driving a Hybrid. When I ran over the cat, because he couldn’t hear it coming, I couldn’t stand the POS anymore.”

ROTFLMAO. Queue the Viking Kitties.

[Froufrou]

He was 19 years old and blind in one eye, most likely deaf, too. He never stayed at the end of the driveway like that, always at the top by the garage doors. I feel terrible about it.

[thackney]

——This also totally ignores oil shale and tar sands. There is a butt load of oil in the world. Its just not currently economically feasible to extract. Currently!——

Although the first ventures in the Canadian oil sands date back to 1913, the Suncor project went online in 1967 and still operates today. There currently are many producers in this field and area.

Oil Sands History
http://www.syncrude.ca/users/folder.asp?FolderID=5657

[Froufrou]

Oooh, that’s purty! Mine is ‘silver mist’ and it has on On-Star. I only wish I’d got the Denali!!!

I don’t have the blower or the flame paint, but my platinum hair looks hot next to the ‘silver mist!’

;o)

[Stoat]

 

Oooh, that’s purty! Mine is ‘silver mist’ and it has on On-Star.

I have no doubt that yours looks magnificent, and I hope that the OnStar operators will give you Special Priority Service because you're a Respected FReeper.  :-)

I only wish I’d got the Denali!!!

Well, I would only wish to politely suggest that there is a reason why God invented Trade-Ins.

The Denali has a bigger motor and so it could be justified as a means to get you to Church faster  :-)

I don’t have the blower or the flame paint, but my platinum hair looks hot next to the ‘silver mist!’

;o)

I'm sure that you look spectacular, whether you're in your car or not  :-)

(ALL FReeper Ladies are absolutely drop-dead gorgeous [as well as being vivacious and buxom, in an entirely Proper way, of course] unless proven otherwise.  And no, unZotted liberals who sneak in here and call names and insults do not qualify as proof of anything other than their own psychotic disturbance)

[Froufrou]

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/883347/posts

*smooch*