World not running out of oil, say experts

The Times (U.K.) ^ | January 18, 2008 | Carl Mortished

[Stoat]

World not running out of oil, say experts

 

 

 

Carl Mortished, World Business Editor

 

Doom-laden forecasts that world oil supplies are poised to fall off the edge of a cliff are wide of the mark, according to leading oil industry experts who gave warning that human factors, not geology, will drive the oil market.

A landmark study of more than 800 oilfields by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (Cera) has concluded that rates of decline are only 4.5 per cent a year, almost half the rate previously believed, leading the consultancy to conclude that oil output will continue to rise over the next decade.

Peter Jackson, the report's author, said: “We will be able to grow supply to well over 100million barrels per day by 2017.” Current world oil output is in the region of 85million barrels a day.

The optimistic view of the world's oil resource was also given support by BP's chief economist, Peter Davies, who dismissed theories of “Peak Oil” as fallacious. Instead, he gave warning that world oil production would peak as demand weakened, because of political constraints, including taxation and government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

 

 

Speaking to the All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil, Mr Davies said that peaks in world production had been wrongly predicted throughout history but he agreed that oil might peak within a generation “as a result of a peaking of demand rather than supply”.

He said it was inconceivable that oil consumption would be unaffected by government policies to reduce carbon emissions. “There is a distinct possibilty that global oil consumption could peak as a result of such climate policies,” Mr Davies said.

The BP economist's remarks were echoed yesterday by Mr Jackson. “It is the above-ground risks that will influence the rate [of oil output],” he said.

Cera analysed the output of 811 oilfields, which produce 19 billion barrels a year, out of total world output of 32 billion. These included many of the giants, including Saudi Arabia's Ghawar, the largest known oilfield, which has been at the centre of the debate between peak oil analysts and their detractors.

In his book Twilight in the Desert, Matthew Simmons of Simmons & Co, the consultancy, said the big Saudi fields reached their peak output in 1981 but Cera yesterday said that Ghawar was not failing. “There is no technical evidence that Ghawar is about to decline,” said Mr Jackson.

Cera reckons that oil output, including unconventional oil, such as tar sands, could allow oil to peak at much higher levels of as much as 112 million barrels per day, with average rates of more than 100million bpd.

The Cera analysis targeted oilfields producing more than 10,000 barrels a day of conventional oil and concluded that overall output was declining at a rate of 4.5 per cent a year and that field decline rates were not increasing.

This is much lower than the 7 to 8percent average rate that is generally assumed in the industry. Typically, Peak Oil theorists believe that the output of oil reserves can be plotted on a graph as a bell curve, rising to a peak and then falling rapidly.

It was proposed in 1950 by M King Hubbert, a US geologist, who successfully predicted the peak of onshore oil production in the United States.

His analysis is disputed by many geologists today, who argue that technology has changed the equation, allowing oil companies to produce more oil from reservoirs than was previously possible.

Meanwhile, increases in the price of oil has made the extraction of difficult reserves economically viable.

[Stoat]

Peter Jackson, the report's author, said: “We will be able to grow supply to well over 100million barrels per day by 2017.” Current world oil output is in the region of 85million barrels a day.

The optimistic view of the world's oil resource was also given support by BP's chief economist, Peter Davies, who dismissed theories of “Peak Oil” as fallacious. Instead, he gave warning that world oil production would peak as demand weakened, because of political constraints, including taxation and government efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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Well, whaddaya know, it looks like those evil Conservatives in their Gas Guzzling SUV's were right all along......

(((snicker))))

[Prophet in the wilderness]

That means, we can have our cake and eat it to, still drive SUVs, but, also at the same time, do research and develop alternative energy....
I am all for being conservative with our resources, but, we should do it in a smart way so as to not harm our economy.
I do believe that conservation, new energy resources, grow the economy, new jobs can go hand in hand......
The enviro wackos want to do it in a scorched earth method... to bring down the USA.. all they are about is a agenda, Anti-USA agenda.

[singfreedom]

Good grief, I thought “Peak Oil” had been debunked long ago. The fact that the politics of “climate” can, and do, affect supply is evidenced, clearly, by ANWAR and our miserable, politically correct, failure to drill it! Duh.

[Rummenigge]

Nothing bad with efficiency - there’s three things you can’t get back. Time and Entropy ... and probably most of your paid taxes.

[Christopher Lincoln]

As far back as the 1860s, experts were saying that the world was close to running out of oil.

[topher]

Don’t forget the failure to drill in states such as California and Florida that complain about high gasoline prices yet are admantly against drilling for oil in their states...

[smaug6]

This also totally ignores oil shale and tar sands. There is a butt load of oil in the world. Its just not currently economically feasible to extract. Currently!

[jalisco555]

Well, whaddaya know, it looks like those evil Conservatives in their Gas Guzzling SUV's were right all along......

The reason to use less oil and to exploit our own petroleum resources is not because we're running out or to save the polar bears. It's because we need to stop funding our enemies in Iran, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. This should be the focus of any rational energy policy.

[flat]

WELL we have all failed to learn from that great AND all knowin georgia guru jimmy C...he had the right idea all along....

as i recall, years ago he counseled us to turn down our thermostats..... rustle thru our closets and get out them really nice colorful wool sweaters and then we were supposed to hold hands for warmth and love with OUR fellow villagers.....

what a grand solution that was...and if we would’ve only just followed the wise one’s advice we wouldn’t be in the mess we’re in taday,

an an an...most best of all the rest of the world would long long ago have reached out, hugged us and held OUR hands instead of well just not liking us as they do now....

im saddened and deeply concerned.....

BHWAHAHAHAAAHAHAA

[kindred]

It seems that the problems with the oil is the problem of indoctrination by the elite marxists who would destroy the middle class of all the once conservative western nations by pushing the lies of global warming and declining resourses and such.
Fact is, the earth is a closed system that God created and oil is but one of the many self regenerating systems of this closed system as all oil is made by long dead trees,plants, and animals that die and are put in the ground.
But the scientists are for the most part liars who get money from the government for lying.

[NRG1973]

The oil may, in fact, be available...but the environmentalists will never let you drill for it.

[The Pack Knight]

Evidently not debunked enough for Rick Wagoner...

General Motors CEO: oil has peaked (FR Thread, 14 Jan 2007)

Of course, when you've just killed America's favorite engine, the Chevy big block V-8, I guess you need some outlandish excuse.

[Brilliant]

“has concluded that rates of decline are only 4.5 per cent a year”

So that means we have about 25 years to go before our oil is exhausted for all practical purposes. I’m not sure how he draws the conclusion that we’re not running out of oil.

[aroundabout]

Once we perfect the transport beam we can simply “beam up” the oil from down deep without even having to drill

Ten cent a gallon gasoline anyone?

[ovrtaxt]

Don’t forget the failure to drill in states such as California and Florida that complain about high gasoline prices yet are admantly against drilling for oil in their states...

Meanwhile Cuba is drilling in the FL Straits. Proving that the environmental movement is Communism under a different flag.

[3Lean]

Those are rates of decline of existing fields. Since the decline in existing fields is lower than previously estimated fewer new fields need to be opened to maintain status quo. Thus, we are much farther from exhaustion than previously indicated.

BTW- even if there were no new fields, the oil wouldn’t be exhausted after 25 years. At a 4.5% rate of decline, production in 25 years would be about 31% of today’s volume, not 0%.

[aroundabout]

I owned a pet store back then and we had to keep the temp at a constant 78 degrees for the exotics we carried back then. When the lowered thermostat thing became required we could not comply because it would have put me out of business as well as killed my birds, fish and most of the reptiles I had.

One day in walks an inspector from the “gubmint” and looks at my thermostat and says to me it has to be turned down to 65 degrees as the law required. I patiently explained why I couldn’t do that, taking him on a tour of my place and showing him all the “How to care for (fill in blank” cards fr each of the species. After I was done he says it doesn’t matter and that everyone has to comply. Faced with this galactic stupidity I said I would not and asked him to leave since I had a business to run. he became huffy and said he would return with the police to insure I complied or be arrested.

About 20 minutes later he walks in with a local cop, who I knew from being in the town for over 10m years. The gov watchdog explained the rules again to the cop and said I refused to comply and wanted him, the cop to order me to do so and if I didn’t wanted me either arrested or given a citation for non compliance.

The cop after listening to this asked the guy what about the animals and this guys family who make a living off the store? He also asked if the guy was willing to state for the record that HE would be fully responsible for the deaths of any of these animals due to the temperature change resulting from lowering the thermostat. Of course the fool would do no such thing and stated he would be back with someone who WOULD see the law was enforced.

Of course he never did and shortly thereafter there was a general exemption made for businesses whose viability depended on maintaining higher then normal temperatures.

[Balding_Eagle]

Good grief, I thought “Peak Oil” had been debunked long ago.

The President of GM, or some other very high GM offical, came out just this week endorsing the idea that Peak Oil is true, and is here.

Seesh, with the world awash in oil, we have such fools in our midst.

[thackney]

So that means we have about 25 years to go before our oil is exhausted

Exploration and Technology has not stopped. On average, the world's proved reserves grows after supplying a increasing demand.

World Proved Crude Oil Reserves, 1980 - 2008
http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/crudeoilreserves.xls

[thackney]

A landmark study of more than 800 oilfields

Everyone should also recongize that this is a relatively small number of fields compared to the world supply. The Gulf of Mexico alone has 717 fields producing oil.

Related Article:

Gloomy outlook for oil disputed
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/energy/5465438.html