Posted on 01/18/2008 11:07:48 PM PST by John Semmens
JOHN SEMMENS: Will rising fuel costs spur public transit?
Published: Wednesday, January 16, 2008 http://www.pressofatlanticcity.com/business/yourmoney/autos/story/3790516p-13327623c.html
With world crude oil prices hovering near $100 per barrel and prices at the gas pump exceeding $3 per gallon in most parts of the country, all the ingredients would seem to be in place for dramatic changes in our daily commuting patterns, with millions of Americans shifting from private cars to public transit. That's the way markets are supposed to work: Higher prices encourage consumers to seek less-costly alternatives, substituting margarine for butter, Hondas for Cadillacs, a cup of McDonald's coffee for Starbucks.
Reducing automobile use and encouraging public transportation is said to have other benefits as well: less traffic congestion; less air pollution; and a more-satisfied workforce, as fewer people start the day frustrated or angry from the morning commute.
In fact, even before oil prices reached their current record levels, many people were suggesting that the government push consumer costs higher by increasing gasoline taxes. The assumption is that higher prices would result in less gasoline being used; it's the basic law of supply and demand.
However, the American people - known for their fierce independence as well as their common-sense frugality - don't always act the way academic theorists and computer models (even free-market computer models) say they should act.
Indeed, the dramatic rise in gasoline prices over the past several years seems to have had almost no impact at all on the driving habits of most Americans. The National Automobile Dealers Association, for example, reports that sales of larger vehicles are still robust. In 2006, the last year for which final numbers are available, nearly a million more Americans bought light trucks than bought automobiles - the sixth year in a row in which truck sales exceeded car sales.
Inflation-adjusted gasoline prices more than doubled during the 1995-2005 period (the latest for which both fuel and travel data are available). In theory, an increase of this magnitude should have driven many Americans to alternate modes of transportation. Instead, automobile travel increased by 23 percent. This was twice as fast as the 11 percent population growth during the same period.
As for the notion that rising fuel costs would inspire people to use public transportation, the data do not support this theory either. While gasoline prices were doubling, public transportation ridership - including all forms of urban public transportation, as well as intercity buses and Amtrak - increased by only 7 percent, less than the rate of population growth.
In fact, public transportation's share of travel has actually declined in recent years, from around 7 percent of the total in 1995 to around 6 percent in 2005.
Despite the dramatic increase in gasoline and diesel fuel prices, most Americans continue to forgo public transportation.
There are several reasons for this. The most obvious is the fact that Americans like the freedom to come and go as they please, on their own schedules, not somebody else's.
Americans also value their time. Public transportation is slow compared to automobile travel, with the typical trip taking twice as long as driving a car. The amount of time available in any given day is fixed, so those who can afford to do so put a premium on conserving this valuable resource.
There's a third reason higher gasoline prices are not driving people away from personal automobiles: the fact that many Americans - even those with limited budgets - are making a conscious choice to spend more on certain things, while perhaps cutting back in other areas. Thus, they are willing to pay extra for the convenience and time savings associated with the personal automobile.
The hope that rising gasoline prices or increased gasoline taxes will substantially reduce automobile travel by inducing people to choose public transportation is unrealistic.
Far from being disdained and disparaged as an "energy waster," the automobile should be hailed for its ability to save our most precious resource: time.
John Semmens is a research fellow at the Independent Institute, 100 Swan Way, Oakland, Calif. 94621; Web site: www.independent.org. For information on TII's funding, please go to http://www.mediatransparency.org/recipientgrants.php?recipientID=1119.
What they ought to do is have "yuppie" cars on the trains. You have to pay an extra dollar to get on them and have to be dressed at least business casual. These cars need to be upscale, with advertisements for Grey Goose vodka instead of Colt 45 Malt Liquor and for banks instead of paycheck loan outlets.
What I'm saying here is that the yuppies and the upscale business set need to have separate cars in which they can read their Wall Street Journal and maybe sip a plastic glass of wine (bought at the platform for $6 a pop) without having to switch their wallets from their back pockets to their front pockets and mess up their hair and loosen their ties to make the other riders think they are just as disheveled and hopeless as they are.
What we need are PREMIUM cars on our public transportation trains. Cars with no graffiti, empty fast food wrappers on the floor and no jarring public service announcements on the loudspeakers. Instead, pipe in some Chopin or Mozart music and have a pleasant "dinging" noise when the train reaches a station with a pleasant female voice announcing the name of the station.
This used to be done on the NYC subways back in the early days. During morning rush hour, the last cars of the train were “reserved” for Wall Streeters.
Of course, this won’t work today. A more likely solution are large vans or jitneys.
Right now, public transportation is seen as low class by many. That’ll change.
You too. Take care.
When the city bus that goes past my house was cancelled 20 years ago I bought a nice, big car. Got to say the bus was cheap and convenient. The bus was just restored but it doesn’t go all the way into town but just to the new mall. This would be fine for those who don’t need to go to work but merely to go shopping. If public transportation is to become popular it must first be provided.
No problem. Libs want to "fix" that problem for you too.
Hey, I'd certainly pay extra for such plush appointments. It'd be a huge improvement over my last public transport experience (New Orleans, 1979). Back then, the public buses were full of 3-inch-long cockroaches (that can fly, by the way..), orange peel - and women who used empty beer cans as hair rollers.
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