Posted on 01/20/2008 5:16:22 PM PST by AmericanInTokyo
Republican gridlock rekindles talk of third-party candidate
WASHINGTON BUREAU
WASHINGTON – Talk of a protracted nomination race or a brokered convention may excite political junkies and horse race aficionados, but it masks a grim reality for the U.S. Republican party.
Three different winners in three presidential contests now provide evidence for what has been long suspected – the Republican coalition is fractured and there's no one to paste it back together.
GOP gridlock is already sparking talk of a search for a saviour and rekindling talk of a third party bid, talk that has been a mainstay of American political chatter for months but only gets louder as the Republicans dish out primary and caucus victories like they were party favours.
So, as the Gang of Five Republican presidential hopefuls heads to South Carolina for Saturday's primary, a lot of political observers are looking west, where New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, the nation's most celebrated noncandidate is heading to delegate-rich states of Texas and California.
Texas is the earliest state to demand the requisite signatures to get a third-party candidate on the state ballot.
In California, Bloomberg meets with Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger who has remained above the presidential fray, but would be a coveted "get" for any Republican hopeful.
The billionaire mayor has issued a litany of nondenial denials over the past months, clearly enjoying the flirtation, but also, according to a number of published accounts, travelling the country and conducting polling to gauge his support.
A new draft-Bloomberg movement has been formed, even as Bloomberg said this week, "no matter how many times you ask the question, I am not the candidate."
Maybe it's just the silly season here because no Republican candidate has caught fire, and voters in successive states reject the previous state's winner, like children holding their nose and pushing away a plate of vegetables.
This clear lack of enthusiasm is leading to various movements to lure former House speaker Newt Gingrich into the GOP race or get CNN host Lou Dobbs to declare an independent candidacy.
As they head to South Carolina, a state proud of having picked the ultimate Republican nominee in every contest since 1980, it is easier to list the various liabilities of the candidates than it is to predict who will eventually emerge.
John McCain? The truth-telling, straight shooter may have told too many truths to a party base that refuses to warm to him and views his positions on immigration, interrogation methods and campaign financing with suspicion.
Mike Huckabee? There may not be enough churches in which to campaign in when the big Super Tuesday states weigh in Feb. 5 and the glass slipper should fall off a candidate who often appears to be running against party elders on foreign policy and economic issues.
Mitt Romney? He can only be a native son once and his victory in Michigan, where he pitched bromides about bringing a once-proud state back to its former glory, reinforces a perception that he will say anything to get elected.
Fred Thompson? He set the campaign alarm clock way too late in the day and snored through a phase in which he could have seized the moment.
Rudy Giuliani? While pundits start talking about his late-state strategy bearing fruit, it ignores the fact he never established any conservative bona fides, carries way too much personal and business baggage and is trying to win the Super Bowl without taking the field during the season.
Tony Perkins of the powerful Family Research Council told members yesterday the party has to find someone who will build the "three-legged stool" that supports the conservative coalition.
In Iowa, Perkins said, a Huckabee win represented a triumph for the coalition's "social leg," while McCain's New Hampshire win meant the "defence leg" carried the day.
When Romney won Michigan on a message of economic hope, the three legged-stool was complete with the win for the "economic leg," Perkins said.
Except the three-legged stool has been represented by three different candidates and, Perkins said, it is up to the candidates to now rally around all themes.
He offered this rather tortured metaphor as the race goes forward: "The GOP electorate is asking its leaders to reassemble the stool, plant it firmly in the cockpit of the party, and get the plane fast down the runway and off the ground."
And his message to Giuliani?
"The tailwinds have passed you by, and the party you want to lead is moving on. The race is not wide open."
But unless Republicans can coalesce around a winner, Democrats and the U.S. will be immersed in the story of the first female or first black presidential candidate while the GOP is still stuck in traffic.
There are two types of people in America. Those that hate it and those that love it.
The people that hate America and want to change it are called Liberals.
The people that love America and want to enforce the laws are called conservatives.
No.
Yes.
All the objective evidence suggests the opposite. But I'll leave you to your daydreaming.
Yep, keep the pot stirred before we can even get through Feb. 5 to see what happens. Brokered convention, 3rd parties with no chance, deals, etc and the nothing has transpired to think that a nominee may not be selected before the convention. Just because this cycle hasn’t followed the past history and with maybe 90% of the delegates left to be chosen we need this additional aggitation.... sheesh.
Objective evidence shows many supporters of McCain or Huckabee (or Romney) to be strong supporters of Thompson, in fact many say they like Thompson best.
But they haven’t voted for him because they believe the media hype that Fred’s campaign has “sizzled” or that he “can’t win.”
This clarifies the picture somewhat. It’s not that Fred has minimal support. His support is much higher than primary results suggest.
My point is that Fred is doing what he needs to be doing, including not dirtying his campaign by catering to a fraudulent media. The media is like a virus, slowing the best horse in the race. But he keeps on.
Without a potent running mate, Bloomberg will do nothing except embarass himself. With Obama he has a chance. No doubt, Hillary will seem to offer Obama her Veep slot; however, I think the Clinton's have burned their bridge to Obama. He is an invisible man in some ways with no one really knowing what he truly believes or what he would do. Just th ticket for Bloomberg.
I would support Dobbs if he ran third party. I will NOT support McCain or Hucksterbee under any circumstances
Interesting article
As one who will go 3d Party if McCain or Juliani are the GOP nods, I gotta keep the options open
Mayor Bloomberg is a socialist w a lot of money. He is proof positive that you can lead a socialist to money...but you cant make them think
Lou Dobbs would be an interesting choice. Although he is weak on the War on Terror, he is dead on with free trade w Commie China, border security, and illegal alienism. The business socialists would throw a hissy-fit if he ran. Dobbs, however, would take an even number of votes from both parties....so that would take away the “third party vote cost us the election” myth-steria from the Big Two.
Also would like to see who the Constitution Party will run. At least you know their candidate will be a conservative.
That was what they planned.
bump
I’m not so sure SC is one of the most Conservative states anymore. Unless we’re using the new definition of conservatism, as defined by the RNC.
The raw vote totals of the Dem primary vs. the Republican primary may shed some light. Certainly, the candidates who received the majority of Saturday’s votes are in no way considered conservative by rational people
Well, if McScream, Miff or the Hulkster are the choices, why not let Thompson run as 3d party. The other three will get creamed by Hillary anyway.
Huckabee and Thompson have been sharing the conservative and evangelical Republican base primary voters. As long as both are viable candidates and continue running nether has a chance of defeating Romney or McCain.
I feel that Huckabee has significantly less appeal than Thompson to most voters in the Presidential Election. (The MSM apparently believes that Huckabee would loose to either Hillary or Obama in the General Election so they are giving him some positive support.)
Thompson has the potential to appeal to moderates and Reagan Democrats in the General Election but his performance so far has been lackluster. Because Huckabee’s base is mostly evangelical voters, he will probably burn out quickly as the primaries occur in states that have small evangelical populations.
I, like most of you, can’t stomach McCain. Guliani appears to be out of the running. That leaves us with Romney. I know he is not most Freepers first or even second choice but he has a reasonable chance to win in November.
I would still hope and pray for Thompson but unless something drastic happens he does not appear to have a chance at the nomination. In sum, I think we must prepare and work for a Romney nomination if we want to win the White House in November.
In your scenario, I might vote for Romney but it would take a couple six packs and a lot of coaxing.
I wouldn’t vote for McCain or Huckabee over my own dead body.
As it is I plan on voting for Thompson.
Think about what your saying. A candidate has to meet MSM acceptance and criteria before they can accept fair coverage?
Can you name one Conservative who has received fair coverage in the past 20 years? I could probably name several hundred that haven’t.
That’s why Fox News had gained such popularity...until turning way left recently.
I wouldn’t be too shocked if Bloomberg ended up as McCain’s running mate. Most of Bloomberg’s campaign donations have been to “McCain-wing” Republicans, including to McCain himself.
I agree. I have made substantial financial contributions to Thompson during Iowa and again during South Carolina. If he decides to go on to Florida I will donate again. but I feel the time is near when we will have to support someone else. Both McCain and Huckabee strike me as fundamentally disingenuous. Romney isn’t my first choice or even my second but he is the best that is left.
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