[codercpc]

I am wondering if late surges matter as much in Florida as they do in other states? By some estimates over 40% of voters have already voted, so it will be very interesting to see who the winner is. In most states you can, and should look at trends, and in this case Romneys trend is going up. But if voters have already voted, it is to late to change their minds, so the "surge" may be of little or no value.

It will also be interesting to see how effective Rudy was in getting those early voters to the polls before his numbers sank. I think I will ignore all "exit polls" on Tuesday, and just sit back an watch the old fashioned way of seeing how the totals add up.

[Keith]

last estimates I saw was that the early voting percentage was closer to 20%, but you are right that it may make exit polling a lot less reliable.

But speaking of polling, who saw Obama by 28%?

[libbylu]

A poll from yesterday showed Romney and McCain tied in early votes, who knows. I think there is momentum the talking heads just don’t see maybe because of their own biases.

[John D]

McCrazy’s surge will have the same problem as Romney’s. Rudy is the only one who will benefit from the early voting.

[Edit35]

over 40% of voters have already voted...

There should be some type of absentee check-valve whereby if the person you voted for by absentee ballot has dropped off.... you could withdraw your ballot and then vote in person at a voting booth.

Otherwise, these primaries are somewhat misleading if not flat out wrong.