Suffolk University Poll: McCain +7 in California (post-debate, post-Rudy dropout)

Real Clear Politics ^ | 2-3-08 | Suffolk University Political Research Center

[ravinson]

59% didn't watch the debate...

That's a pretty poor level of interest for California Republicans. Maybe that helps explain how they let Arnold sqeeze out Tom McClintock for the governorship a few years back.

Now the ignorant country clubbers are going to nominate McCain so the whole USA can have a governterminator.

[Truthsearcher]

It’s not purely proportional.

It’s winner take all by district, 3 for each of the 53 districts for 159, and 11 awarded for winning the overall popular vote, and 3 super delegates that every state gets.

Which means Huckabee won’t get any, he’s polling at 10% and will not win any district out right. Romney should be able to win 20-25 districts and end up with around 70 delegates based on these numbers, and he could conceivably do better than that.

[Hattie]

Come on California.

[Plutarch]

Why? Here is his left side.

Newsweek interview , I think from 2001.

CM: John tried his best to lighten the mood, telling jokes. But there was no avoiding thinking about what might happen. The day of the operation was very hard. He was in surgery for about nine hours. In the end, the surgery went well...

JM: The operation this time was pretty extensive. They removed the tumor on my temple, and because the incision was so large they had to take skin from my neck to cover the wound. They actually stretched skin from my neck up behind and over my ear to my temple and then stitched it in place. Quite an interesting feat--and one requiring a degree of, ah, elasticity I didn't know I had. Healing from that took quite a bit of time, at least six months. And I recently went back in to have another minor surgery to minimize the scarring. I still don't have feeling in parts of my face and neck, since it takes a long time for nerve endings to regenerate. I consider myself lucky. With the help of my doctors, we caught the cancer early both times and it didn't spread. So I didn't need chemotherapy or radiation, which would have been far more painful, and may not have been as successful against this kind of disease.

[GLDNGUN]

Come on California.

My wife and I live in California. After much agony and disgust with the current GOP crop, we've decided to vote for Romney on Tuesday. It will be the toughest chad I've ever punched.

[Red Steel]

This poll is completely bogus.

First of all, the demographics are way off. 50% of this poll are made of people over 65.

Have they ever heard of weighting a poll? 50% of California is over 65?

Wow BS to say the least...When this type of collusion is happening, you know Romney must be hammering McCain.

[ravinson]

CA is not winner take all. It’s winner take all by district.

This election is almost certainly going to elect the worst President since Bill Clinton, but at least it will yield some useful demographic data about Republican and Democrat voters. Since there are no ideal candidates running, everyone that has principles seems willing to vote them (and the rest will identify themselves by voting for McCain or Hillary).

[Hattie]

The real polls will be out about 10 pm Monday night. All the others will show McCain landsliding into nomination, so he can "unite" the party.

If pollsters say a race is "fluid", that means they are scared to death McCain may get beat, so his campaign needs to get another big endorser and some more "independent" voters.

[Hattie]

My wife and I live in California. After much agony and disgust with the current GOP crop, we've decided to vote for Romney on Tuesday. It will be the toughest chad I've ever punched.

We live in TX, don't vote till March 4 and there will be eight in our family for him, assuming we actually get the choice. He is leading here in the polls right now. I know what you mean but we searched our souls and feel good about it now.

[Salvation]

Something to watch

[truth_seeker]

“These FR polls usually turn out about the way I expect them to, but they are shockingly different from the primary results.”

FR polls have been an excellent contra-indicator of who will do poorly in the actual election by the voters.

[Red Steel]

You may want to see this California poll McCain looks like he's crashing:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/1964124/posts?page=4#4

[Truthsearcher]

It’s Zogby so who knows. But what we do know is that it’s pretty close either way, and Romney can take enough delegates there to hold his own. It will be either he takes 90+ and McCain takes 70+, or vice versa.

The real key is the 203 delegates up for grabs in the 6 caucus states on Super Tuesday, as well as the 79 in Utah and Mass, Romney needs do in the caucus states what he did today in Maine, and take about 250 of the 282 in those 8 states. if he does that and pick up 70-80 in California, he will be within striking distance of McCain after Super Tuesday (down 150 delegates), with 2 of the 3 states on Feb 9th also caucus states with 128 delegates up for grab on that day, he could be neck and neck with McCain still by this time next week.

[TChad]

FR polls have been an excellent contra-indicator of who will do poorly in the actual election by the voters.

Any thoughts on why?

[CAnewsjunkiefemale]

Too bad so many of them didn’t watch the debate. Just watching McCain Wednesday made me wonder how people think this guy can win against Hillary or Obama.

One guy who called into a radio station said McCain seemed to have embalming fluid in him, an over the top comment, but it was probably more or less what some people out there might have been thinking. Another person tonight was of the opinion that McCain would bore people. My sister tonight mentioned the guy was boring when she watched the debate Wednesday.
By the way, notice the republicans who campaigned hard in Florida did not get a day to relax before having their debate, yet the dems who did not have to campaign had their debate scheduled on Thursday? Makes me wonder if CNN set it up that way on purpose.

It will be interesting to see how well Romney does here in CA, I’m hoping he does well.

[Red Steel]

If Romney is close or ahead after Tuesday, McCain may be toast the rest of the way.

[AliVeritas]

re: CA poll

This may have helped
http://laopinion.com/editorial/index_en.html

[yellowhammer]

Romney +3 in California according to Zogby! That is huge news! Someone needs to post that as a new thread.

[Baladas]

Hell, alot of them are probably voting for Juan.

[stocksthatgoup]

McCain/Hagel'08
Because They Deserve Each Other