POLL: OBAMA TAKES LEAD IN TEXAS (up 6 points)

American Research Group ^

[libh8er]

Texas Primary Preferences

Democrats TX

Clinton 42% Obama 48% Someone else 3% Undecided 7%

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.

22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 30% of men say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.

[Homer1]

Sinclair!

[Old Retired Army Guy]

YES!

[SamAdams76]

If Hillary loses Texas things will get really ugly really fast.

No. Things will get really ugly starting right about now. The Clintons cannot afford to lose Texas, if they lose Texas, it's over.

[Ancesthntr]

Great shot. Is it real, or is it Photoshop (no, not the bubble part)?

[deport]

Source: Real Clear Plitics

                                  Clinton   Obama
RCP Average      02/11 - 02/14      50.3     40.0    
Rasmussen        02/14 - 02/14      54       38   
InsiderAdvantage 02/14 - 02/14      48       41   
TCUL/Hamilton    02/11 - 02/13      49       41 

These polls will change and most likely tighten up as they are just now getting ramped up in Texas with ads and rallies.

[uncbob]

Terrible ads altogether, but Hillary's is the worst

That's what you get when you are trying to appeal to brain dead democrats

[Hattie]

Lots of pubs are going to crossover to vote for Obama. McCain may not win very big as a result. JMO

[Hattie]

Aren’t the Texas and Ohio primaries on March 4? A lot can happen between now and then.

Early voting in TX starts the 19th Feb.

[romanesq]

I did the same as you in NJ as McCain had it won and Romney wouldn’t get close but I disagree with voting for Shrillary, ever.

I must attempt to dissuade you from supporting this ultimate evil.

We will undress Barack when the time is right. But to support the corrupt Clintons and aid in a proportional distribution of delegates by supporting the Beast is wrong.

We must not do anything to give daylight to the Clinton vampires.

[romanesq]

Yes, I read the Rasmussen page. When did they conduct it? I may have missed the actual polling dates. My sense is that this doesn’t fit the political reality of a three day polling starting Wednesday after the Potomac massacre.

[TexanToTheCore]

I think Texas will go for Obama.

[jveritas]

The democrats do not have all or nothing states, it is all proportional based on the popular vote.

[montag813]

Disagree, for many reasons Obama will be the easier candidate to beat in November. Not only do I believe that McCain will win, I think it will be a lopsided victory for him.

You are distinctly in the minority on this. I have detailed numerous reasons for this. Plus the "X" factor of youth vs. crotchety oldness runs heavily in Obama's favor. Also your analysis discounts the poll numbers on the Iraq War. McCain is already being widely ridiculed for his "100 years" and "10,000 years" comments regarding troops in Iraq. But these are trivialities. The main thing is that a comeback for Clinton will dispirit the activist troops on their side, which will give us a fighting chance in Nov.

[jveritas]

Someone on TV mentioned something similar to what you just said but I could not understand exactly what he meant? Do you mean that the districts where black voters are concentrated have more delegates than the districts where the Hispanic voters are concentrated?

[Ann Archy]

GO OBAMA!! CRUSH HER!

[jveritas]

What I noticed is that most polling firms are only polling registered or likely democrats voters and not polling a lot of independents who for sure can vote in both Ohio and Texas democrat primaries and they are going to vote in large numbers.

[jveritas]

If she wins Texas and Ohio in large percentage she is going to be the democrat nominee without any fight at the convention. It would be a huge mistake if you vote for her. She must behind Obama by 150-200 pledged delegates going to the convention so there will a real fight and division, if she is close in delegates then the nomination is hers very easily.

[LS]

This means Hillary is in deep trouble. She may win, but isn’t going to win big enough to stop Hussein.

[jveritas]

What you are doing is absolutely correct. Hillary Clinton must win Texas and Ohio by big margins so she will remain at least 150 delegates behind Obama going to the convention and so we can get a real fight and division that will destroy the democrats for decades. If she wins Texas and Ohio by big margins and get close to him in the delegates she is going to be the democrat nominee without any fight.

[Alter Kaker]

Do you mean that the districts where black voters are concentrated have more delegates than the districts where the Hispanic voters are concentrated?

Yes, because delegate apportionment is based on Democratic turnout in the last election, and voter turnout has historically been very low in a number of heavily Hispanic areas. So even if record number of Hispanics do turn out in San Antonio, the Rio Grande Valley and other areas, their districts won't get any more delegates.