Posted on 02/15/2008 8:28:48 AM PST by libh8er
Texas Primary Preferences
Democrats TX
Clinton 42% Obama 48% Someone else 3% Undecided 7%
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.
22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 30% of men say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary.
For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.
These polls have been all over the place. I still think that Hillary takes Ohio (due to proletarian white folks) and Texas (thanks to Hispanics).
L
Do you know if these are “all or nothing” states?
Hey, how come that “Someone else” guy isn’t running on the Republican side? He may do better than 3%. :D
The Dems no longer have any winner take all states.
Two possible nominees and they’re both socialists to the extreme.
I would think even Hillary Clinton could read handwriting on a wall at that point. If she loses Texas, she will quit. Within a few hours either way, Edwards will endorse Obama (yes, possibly before Clinton crumbles) and some superdelegates will jump ship.
If Hillary loses Texas things will get really ugly really fast.
_________________________________________
It seems like it will be over for her if she loses Texas.
HIL-DA-BEAST! HIL-DA-BEAST! HIL-DA-BEAST!
Boy, her lead in Texas evaporated rather quickly.
I love her campaign guy that quit. His reason was that hillary wanted to take her campaign in another direction.” In other words, she wanted to win not lose every state.
The harder she campaigns, the more it hurts her. LOL!
good - I’m buying stock in Orville Redenbacker !
LOL!!! He'd have MY vote!
Huck Fillary!
: )
Never heard of American Research Group, so I have little confidence in this poll. Even if Obama loses Texas, if he can cut Hillary’s margin of victory to, say, 3 points, he scores a psychological victory, gets almost as many delegates, doesn’t slow down his own momentum much — and strengthens his appeal to the uncommitted superdelegates. Not to mention causing more panic within the Clinton campaign.
Got popcorn?
“Do you know if these are “all or nothing” states?”
Texas is not “all or nothing”, and the rules are very complicated. In addition, the rules are different for each party, with the Demo party rules being more complicated.
See here:
http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/metropolitan/5528612.html
Not that I care, but American Research Group is a nut case polling company run by a questionable character.
http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html
A problem with American Research Group polling organization
With some interest in how the polls work, and some of the oddities thereof, I decided to take a look at a small group that sees some oddities in their polling: American Research Group. Not to be confused with America’s Research Group, a whole different organization.
One of my first conclusions is that ARG is looking to be the true anonymous polling group! Really, they have very little in the way of public profile, and yet get their polls to be highly visible. So, when seeing things like that I do a bit of searching, and with names not coming up at their web site or any ‘About Us’ sort of deal, that means really searching. So the best place to start is: WHOIS domain name lookup.
Your scenario is plausible. Even more so if Edwards gives his delegates to Obama while Hillary is contemplating quitting.
College kids, in their naivete, are voting for Obama in droves.
Not yet wizened by the world, they aren’t examining the substance of his message, which is thin and socialist.
That’s what Obama’s opponents are going to have to do, expose him.
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