La Nina and Pacific Decadal Oscillation Cool the Pacific (global warming)

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsroom/NewImages/images.php3?img_id=18012 ^

[chessplayer]

A cool-water anomaly known as La Niña occupied the tropical Pacific Ocean throughout 2007 and early 2008. In April 2008, scientists at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory announced that while the La Niña was weakening, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation—a larger-scale, slower-cycling ocean pattern—had shifted to its cool phase.

Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns.

According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”

[BelegStrongbow]

Or they can be one true component of how the natural cliamte cycles from warm to cool and back again, something that is really not affected by human activity, no matter how we puff ourselves up as having significance we don’t have (ruining the natural world) and forgetting the significance we really have: souls seeking salvation and eternal life.

[kidd]

According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”

Whoa Josh...really sticking your neck out there

[gusopol3]

anybody have a coin?

[Reeses]

Where's the PDO hiding the heat then? If warming exists the thermal energy has to be located somewhere on Earth's surface. This PDO explanation would be a lot more impressive if their computer model computed it before the fact and not after. Why don't we read about the 80 infallible computer models anymore?

[sportutegrl]

. . . "These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming . . . ":

Sounds like the global warmers have been working overtime trying to explain why the predicted global warming catastrophe hasn't occured.

[The Raven]

Suppose he had said

“These natural climate phenomena can sometimes be mistaken for climate change caused by human activities.”

He would have been shot the next day.

[SueRae]

In other words, he is giving us a twenty or thrity year excuse for why we aren’t seeing the globull warming effects?

[BelegStrongbow]

Interesting response. On the one hand, that really shows the effectiveness of martyrdom, in that those who falsely cling to power will eventually have to start killing those who disagree and that this will only motivate those who believe the truth the martyr died for. On the other, it also implies that liberals would actually kill someone able to defend themselves in the real world. In my own opinion, that is one of the defining characteristics of liberals: they have sublimated the notion of death from actual killing to public execution of the dignity and personal honor of the victim.

I would expect endless stories on CNN and MSNBC, et. al., examining the weatherman’s credibility, undermining his authority, demonstrating how he had been corrupted by bad and excessivly conservative associates, etc. That’s how people get killed these days: alive, but utterly deprived of the credibility their actual achievements should have merited.

[chessplayer]

PDO shifts;

1905 - 1946 (41 years) warm
1946 - 1977 (31 years) cool
1977 - 2008 (31 years) warm

Southern hemisphere cooling.
Tropics cooling.
Pacific cooling.
Atlantic temps. showing no signs of warming for last four years.
Sun perhaps heading for a Dalton Minimum.

Things could get interesting. AGW`ers insist the PDO and Atlantic Oscillation have little effect on climate compared to man-made global warming.

[JohnEBoy]

So what he is definitely saying is ... there might be global warming or there might not be, and it might be caused by human activity and it might possibly happen sooner or perhaps much later. Therefore, we MUST spend trillions, NOW to prevent it. See? We are all clear on the concept now, right?

[chessplayer]

“More on the PDO shift cited by NASA”
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/04/29/more-on-the-pdo-shift-cited-by-nasa/#respond

[jimfree]

Yes, gravity and orbital dynamics and the earth’s rotation have their influences but they only mask the major impact of the rooster on the sun’s rise each morning.

[Eye On The Left]

If you look at the chart below, you will see that sunspot activity (during solar maxes--the individual peaks) has been relatively high since about 1900 and almost non-existent for the period between about 1650 and 1700. This period is known as the Maunder Minimum or "Little Ice Age".

From BBC News [yr: 2004]:
A new [2004] analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years. Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past. They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3869753.stm

______________________________________________

It's really hard to imagine how this little ball of fire could have any impact on our climate at all.

But the main arguments being made for a solar-climate connection is not so much to do with the heat of the Sun but rather with its magnetic cycles. When the Sun is more magnetically active (typically around the peak of the 11 year sunspot cycle --we are a few yrs away at the moment), the Sun's magnetic field is better able to deflect away incoming galactic cosmic rays (highly energetic charged particles coming from outside the solar system). The GCRs are thought to help in the formation of low-level cumulus clouds -the type of clouds that BLOCK sunlight and help cool the Earth. So when the Sun's MF is acting up (not like now), less GCRs reach the Earth's atmosphere, less low level sunlight-blocking clouds form, and more sunlight gets through to warm the Earth's surface...naturally. Clouds are basically made up of tiny water droplets. When dust particles in the atmosphere become ionized by incoming GCRs they become very 'attractive' to water molecules, in a purely 'chemical' sense of the word.-Eye On The Left

____________________________________________________

2008: "The Center for Sun-Climate Research at the DNSC investigates the connection between variations in the intensity of cosmic rays and climatic changes on Earth. This field of research has been given the name 'cosmoclimatology'"..."Cosmic ray intensities – and therefore cloudiness – keep changing because the Sun's magnetic field varies in its ability to repel cosmic rays coming from the Galaxy, before they can reach the Earth." :
http://www.spacecenter.dk/research/sun-climate

____________________________________________________

It's not like ice ages have never happened before. Or that we aren't due for a new one any century now.

Ice ages typically occur about every 100,000 years, a result of 3 periodic earth orbital deviations occurring roughly at the same time. These are: slight periodic changes in the tilt angle of Earth's axis, slight periodic changes in the 'shape' of Earth's orbit (degree of its ellipse) and a slight wobble of the axis itself (this is different than angle change).

Also, if you look very carefully at the graph you posted, you'll see that temperature increases (the blue line) actually PRECEEDED CO2 increases (red line) throughout this entire interval spanning the past 400,000 years. In fact, on average, they precede them by a whopping 800 years! In other words, it looks like temperature increases *caused* the CO2 increases, not vice versa. The lefties are well aware of this problem and have offered up many lame brain explanations for it. Actually, one part does make sense, that being as global temperature increased (naturally) and the oceans warmed, they were less able to contain dissolved CO2 and so it was eventually released into the air (like a warm bottle of soda). The CO2/temp figures used in this graph are based on ice core data from Greenland.

...oh, speaking of lame brains, I don't think Al Gore mentions this difficulty at all in his blockbuster movie. Also, the most important greenhouse gas of all (by a long shot) is water vapor. It actually accounts for between 75-95% of the GH effect --yet another inconvenient truth Gore leaves out of his film.-Eye On The Left

[Egon]

Yes, gravity and orbital dynamics and the earth’s rotation have their influences but they only mask the major impact of the rooster on the sun’s rise each morning.

Heh. Excellent. There's a tagline in there somewhere.

[Thermalseeker]

Why don't we read about the 80 infallible computer models anymore?

Yep, you sure don't see the "hockey stick" graph anymore, do ya?

[Vio24]

"Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same (cooling) phase for 20 to 30 years

" When asked to comment on this latest finding, the head of the UN Commission on Global Warming was quoted as saying "Oh sh*t"

[Pikachu_Dad]

Yep, those two guys did an excellent job debunking that fraud.

[steelyourfaith]

 

Beam me to Planet Gore !

[agere_contra]

The CO2/temp figures used in this graph are based on ice core data from Greenland.

I agree with your post, but - minor point - the CO2/temp graph marked "Antarctica Ice Core Data 1" is of course from the Vostok Ice Cores in Antarctica, not from Greenland.

Thank you for the excellent sunspot graph.

[bperiwinkle7]

“Yes, gravity and orbital dynamics and the earth’s rotation have their influences but they only mask the major impact of the rooster on the sun’s rise each morning.”

BEST COMMENT OF THE MORNING!!!

[Eye On The Left]

I agree with your post, but - minor point - the CO2/temp graph marked "Antarctica Ice Core Data 1" is of course from the Vostok Ice Cores in Antarctica, not from Greenland.

You're correct of course. Thanks for pointing out my error.

[Da Coyote]

Kudos to all of you who have already replied and done a far, far better job of examining that article than the sum of our “journalists” out there. There are a lot of smart folks monitoring FreeRepublic.

[chessplayer]

Here`s some more on it.

“NASA: PDO flip to cool phase confirmed - cooler times ahead for the West Coast?”
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/04/29/nasa-pdo-flip-to-cool-phase-confirmed-cooler-times-ahead/#comments

“More on the PDO shift cited by NASA”
http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/04/29/more-on-the-pdo-shift-cited-by-nasa/#respond

[SoFloFreeper]

According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”

Oh, that is RICH. So nature can HIDE global warming...by making the globe COOLER. I see....but global warming is REALLY happening, that darn NATURAL COOLING effect is just masking it....

See, the Emperor's New Clothes?!

[SoFloFreeper]

Will one or both of you explain what you’re talking about to me? I don’t understand the hockey stick/80 computer model references. :)

[Reeses]

public execution of the dignity and personal honor of the victim.

Getting the victim fired from their job is an all time favorite tactic of the left. What's the big deal? Personally I'd rather get fired than go to the dentist. It's only a big deal to leftists mortgaged to the hilt trying to keep up with the Joneses.

[BelegStrongbow]

Well, having had it happen to me, I guess there is no big deal in the sense I infer you mean. It just struck me that the left has entrenched a virtual sense of reality in place of a visceral one in the general zeitgeist. They can’t stand death, assuming they’re forced to truly experience it, even when they aren’t the ones dying. So long as they can sublimate the death, keep it out of sight, they can pretend it doesn’t exist in any material way, even as they acknowledge it as a real event (such as in abortions).

I thought it suggestive to make this comment as an application of what Future Shock has really turned out to be, in opposition to the trivial outcomes and impotent imaginings that were provided back in the day.

[Eye On The Left]

Will one or both of you explain what you’re talking about to me? I don’t understand the hockey stick/80 computer model references. :)

The 'hockey stick' refers to a hockeystick-shaped graph made by a 'climate expert' in which he dramatically altered the data to suit his man-made global warming claims. It practically ignored the Medieval Warm Period.

For more information, see:

Global Warming Bombshell
A prime piece of evidence linking human activity to climate change turns out to be an artifact of poor mathematics:
http://www.technologyreview.com/Energy/13830/

And
The 'Hockey Stick': A New Low in Climate Science:

http://www.john-daly.com/hockey/hockey.htm

If you look at the chart below, you will see that sunspot activity (during solar maxes--the individual peaks) has been relatively high since about 1900 and almost non-existent for the period between about 1650 and 1700. This period is known as the Maunder Minimum or "Little Ice Age".

From BBC News [yr: 2004]:
A new [2004] analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years. Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past. They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/3869753.stm

[chessplayer]

I looked at Easterbrook`s projection chart again in this link;

http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/2008/04/29/more-on-the-pdo-shift-cited-by-nasa/#respond

If it turns into a full 30 year cooling, temps. may go back down to what they were in the mid-1990`s. Not even close to the cooling of the 1970`s. And the chart indicates that around 2040, temperatures will start rising again,,,even higher than 1998. If thats true, this cooling (if it happens) won`t change the minds of AGW`ers.

[21twelve]

After a long and cool Pacific Northwest winter my wife was watching the weather last night and saying “I hope the summer isn’t cold. I hate cold summers!” (They don’t quite make up for the bad winter weather, but often we’ll go weeks and weeks of 78-82 degrees with clear blue skies).

Not sure I’ll be showing her this thread!

[blam]

Climate Modelers See Modern Echo In '30s Dust Bowl

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

I've been telling anyone who would listen (and many who wouldn't) about the PDO for years. Climatologists predicted this years ago -- well before the event. They called the turning point almost perfectly. Unlike the AGW hypothesis; there is a great deal of historical evidence of the PDO. It's a variable-length cycle — but, it's much more predictable than the long-term climate changes that the Gorebots are on about.

The warming doesn't have to be on the Earth's surface. It can be hidden in the ocean depths for years. It can be carried to the upper atmosphere by convection currents, and expelled to space from there.

The PDO is real. AGW is a scam.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

Here’s a link about the PDO that I posted on FR last November:

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

[Old Professer]

[CedarDave]

Another day without sunspots ...

Getting kind of freaky...

[CedarDave]

Sounds like the global warmers have been working overtime trying to explain why the predicted global warming catastrophe hasn't occured.

Exactly!

[LilyBean]

Well friend in Victoria. I talked to my daughter who is also in Victoria this morning. She said it was nice, but on the cool side.

I live in the sunny Okanagan, and have yet to see the damn sun. What a cold spring.

But hey, we get to pay that extra 2.4 cents a liter for gas starting in July. Global warming tax ya know. Setting an example for the rest of the country to follow ya know.

Global warming my ass. I have been freezing my butt off since last October. Show me the heat.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

It's been a cool year. On the upside — that's dramatically reduced the AGW alarmism.

In my opinion (no less informed than Al Gore's) global warming is total bunk. I've often mentioned the PDO to explain rising temperatures here for the past few decades (ending in 1998). Now, that the PDO is causing lower temperatures — the AGW alarmists are saying it's just providing a hiatus, before global warming returns with a vengeance. Well, at least they're finally recognizing that there are factors the IPCC models have been overlooking. If the present cooling trend persists for a few years, all of this madness might blow over.

BTW, I love the Okanagan — but it's way too hot for me in August.

[LilyBean]

LOL. You sound like my daughter. She says I pay 2 grand a month so I do not cook in the summer, and freeze in the winter. You should have heard her whining a couple weeks ago when you guys got snow that one Saturday.

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

I lived North of 60 for decades — I still laugh at Victorians’ reaction to a bit of snow (although they are now “fellow Victorians’). I actually don’t mind seasons.

[Reeses]

Here’s a link about the PDO that I posted on FR last November

Thanks! You were right!

I can't understand why Canada wants a new global warming tax. If warming happens Canada stands to benefit immensely. What makes them want to pointlessly cut off their own nose to spite America?

[USFRIENDINVICTORIA]

“I can't understand why Canada wants a new global warming tax.”

Neither do I — except for political expediency. The first goal of any politician is to get reelected & the MSM has brainwashed a lot of people into fearing AGW.

In the far north, where I used to live; when asked about global warming, most people would respond: “bring it on!”.

Most of the country was buried under an ice sheet over a mile thick, for tens of thousands of years. A little bit of global cooling would be far, far worse for us than even a lot of global warming.

We have a “carbon tax” here in B.C. now — brought in by our right-of-centre coalition provincial government (right of our centre that is). Some members of the government are probably true believers — for the rest, I think that they just wanted to neutralize the issue politically. It's actually proven to be a brilliant move — because the Opposition(socialist) NDP has come out against it, while the Green Party can only sputter that they thought of it first.

Meanwhile, the tax has introduced a little reality into the whole global warming debate. Most people used to think that a combination of good intentions and low-wattage light bulbs would solve the “problem” — or perhaps that, along with more transit buses, and eating less meat. (These are all suggestions from letters to the editor.) Now, people realize that this madness is going to cost actual money & they are becoming more skeptical. I call the tax the “least-bad” solution — because at least a tax leaves us with more choices than the alternative bans and mandates; plus it is transparent.

[Lancey Howard]

“Global warming” hoax BUMP!

[DouglasKC]

According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”

Whoa Josh...really sticking your neck out there

Truly a man confident of his science and its predictive ability.