Posted on 06/07/2008 2:28:49 AM PDT by JohnHuang2
Almost precisely at the midpoint between the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3 and the general election on Nov. 4, the general election campaign is on. Neither party's nominee swept the primaries. John McCain's narrow popular vote margins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida and most of the Super Tuesday states, combined with the Republicans' winner-take-all delegate allocation rules, effectively gave him the Republican nomination on Feb. 6. Mike Huckabee made it official by withdrawing after the March 4 Texas and Ohio primaries.
Barack Obama's big delegate margins in caucus states, combined with Democrats' proportionate representation rules, gave him what proved to be an insurmountable lead in February, when he won 11 straight contests. Hillary Clinton carried the popular vote (unless you allocate all the "uncommitted" votes in Michigan to Obama), but could not overtake Obama's delegate lead. The super-delegates gave Obama a delegate majority by the evening of the last primaries on June 3. It took Clinton another 24 hours to decide to end her candidacy, after it became clear that Obama wouldn't be stampeded into making her his vice presidential nominee.
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
Deer in the Headlights
Obama lost the working-class vote, the women's vote, the downscale vote, the senior vote, the Catholic vote, the Hispanic vote, lost the big primaries, the swing states and got 200,000 fewer votes than Hillary, so Democrats are convinced he's their strongest candidate. He's completely united half the party!
Four years after Jimmy Carter got creamed, Democrats thought their best shot against the Gipper was to run Jimmy Carter's veep. Democrats thought beating Nixon in '72 would be a cakewalk if they ran George McGovern, so they did. After getting clobbered on the crime issue election after election, Democrats finally picked a sure-fire winning ticket: Michael Dukakis and Willie Horton. After 8 tawdry years of Clinton scandals, the Democrats' idea of bringing needed "change" to Washington was to run Al Gore. With the nation at war against Muslim fanatics, Democrats -- sick and tired of losing on national security -- thought they had the perfect solution: Antiwar John Kerry and sissy John Edwards! The steamroller Gigolo/Sissy ticket steamrolled to defeat.
Apparently, to send voters a clear strong signal that they're serious this time, the party bigshots selected the least qualified candidate for Commander-in-Chief in U.S. history. Democrats set up the 'superdelegate system' (in keeping with their idea of "democracy") to keep voters from saddling the party with George McGovern losers, so now they're stuck running a Muslim-turned-halo-sporting-God-Damn-America-"Christian" left-winger whose middle name is Hussein even while primary voters preferred Hillary. (This should assuage worries that Democrats aren't ready to run the country.)
The DNC and the media are convinced Obama is qualified for president, pointing to his empty oratorical skills. Yet, while zipping back and forth across the 57 states recently, Obama has scrupulously been reminding voters why he isn't presidential material. But solely on the basis that he can read syrupy speeches from a teleprompter after several rehearsals, Democrat honchos insist he's qualified to be leader of the free world.
Back during the 2000 campaign, liberals pretended to worry about the 'gravitas' Bush supposedly lacked, and droned on and on that he didn't have enough 'heft', so now their brilliant corrective is running thoroughly weightless Obama, who can't even command the news cycle despite his chums being in charge, much less be leader of the free world.
Even after "clinching" the 'nomination,' poor little Obama was still struggling even to stay relevant against all the news about the dominatrix who beat him up so badly, he had to be wheeled on a gurney across the finish line by a frantic crew of superdelegates. The Obamatrons spent the whole week complaining hysterically that Hillary had spent the whole week not congratulating Obama for barely 'winning' the nomination. This, even after his leaving dozens of phone messages for her (just to show he's 'in charge')! By now, even some of his Kool-Aid drinkers sense he's a wimp, and expressed relief that Hillary was at least open to letting Obama pick his running mate. And that the running mate doesn't have to be her. Then, Thursday night, she beckons and he answers the call! Obama "met privately with Hillary Rodham Clinton, a likely vice presidential candidate," is how the AP put it. Little Obama's campaign hacks had to frantically deny this was Hillary auditioning Obama at her place, but rather that the meeting occurred without preconditions in some "undisclosed location," which means she probably first summoned him to her place.
Picking Hillary as his running mate makes Obama look weak because he's weak. Not picking Hillary makes him look weak, too, because he's weak. When you're running as a blank resume wrapped in an empty suit inside a dinky bubble, that's what happens. Oddly, Obama's 'Change Without Experience' chant isn't lighting a fire under him in the polls either. The housing "crisis", $4/gallon gas, the Iraq war/Bush Lied, Kids Died, 172% saying the country's on the wrong track and the best Obama can do is run even with fascist warmonger John McBusHitler, who's barely campaigning.
And during those rare ventures into policy, the ace ignoramus blunders into Iran being an itsy-bitsy "tiny" threat on one day, to Iran being a serious threat the next; Jerusalem being the undivided capital of Israel on Wednesday, then on Thursday "it's up to the parties to negotiate" its status, then it's Friday's clarification of Thursday's clarification involving no backtracking from Wednesday's clarification, etc.
Same deal with his fixer Tony Rezko, who just got convicted on 16 felonies, even with one felony tied behind his back. First, Obama hardly knew the chap, hazy memory at best. The chap crawls out from under one of those spots of amnesia, and suddenly Obama knew him very well, but "this isn't the Tony Rezko" he barely remembered knowing pretty well 20 years ago.
If Obama thinks this is any way to run in the general, it'll kill him to find out November's voting isn't by rinky-dinky caucuses crammed with latte Maoists but rather fifty big ol' secret ballot elections, where the poor sap routinely flops. Even worse, no Howard Dean bailing the arugulan loser out by magically invalidating his loses either. But, don't worry, if Hillary keeps shrinking Obama with 'ready to endorse Obama from Day One' 'endorsements' while the 'will-she, can-she, won't-she be his veep?' hangs in the air, 'round election time, he'll be lucky to hold on to Illinois.
Anyway, that's...
My Two Cents...
"JohnHuang2"
I wish I was as confidant as you are regarding November. Hell we aren’t even through the conventions yet. I’m not holding my breath that anything magical is going to come out of the conventions, but something could possibly so I’m keeping my powder dry.
The Messianic appeal that empty suits have for a certain section of the population is what really gets my attention. I’d say in comparison to WJC, the present dem candidate has none. So on the one hand he could be a Michael Dukakis, but on the other hand we elected Jimmy Carter with credentials.
Eagerly awaiting the “anything can happen” scenario.
Ohio is not in play for Obama. He may keep it close but there isn’t proportional distribution of electoral votes. His base is predominently Blacks and Urban Libs and there aren’t enough of them here in Ohio. His biggest problem is southeastern Ohio, which is most Appalachian. Hillary carried this region in the Democrat primary nearly 4 to 1. Most of these people are not voting for a communist even if he does have a “D” next to his name. These are the people Obama attacked during the PA Primary (guns and religion comment). McCain should do well with these folks.
I believe McCain will defeat Obama, the walking contradiction, by a large margin. After the republicans are through with exposing him for what he is, and is not, Obama will wish he had never run. I’ve never seen a candidate so in over his head.
As I counseled some months ago, it's time to throw out that old map of the red states and blue states. There are more states -- and some different states -- in play this time.And as Barry tells us, there are more states in total.
Fifty-seven states nowadays, up from the previous fifty.
So this will be an interesting election.
I hope you're right. But a cautionary note: The Clintonistas were saying exactly the same thing nine months ago.
Obama’s biggest problem is he is an empty suit and the country knows it.
Hillary’s biggest problem is half the country hates her.
My thought is this. The Democrats don’t want the Presidency because that means they have to take responsibility which can cost them congress, as it did in 1994.
Democrats want to run the country from the legislative and judicial branches and blame the President for all the countries ills. I think that’s what they did to Bush for the last 8 years.
By putting Hillary in, the Democrats risk not only losing the election, but losing seats in congress in 2010-2012. Then know Obama cannot win. But at least their seats will be safe.
With $140 oil, McCain has no chance. Enough people will vote out of their frustration, against anybody with (R) next to their name.
Obama is a very weak candidate, but he is solidly ahead in the polls now, and is going to win (unless we see $3 gas again by October).
It is my attempt to show what a disaster Obama will be.
Hmmmm, veddy interesting.
The shift of WVA and Kentucky is long term. Michigan has always been a bit of an odd state IMO. You have the urban area of Detroit, the auto worker issue, but then an outdoorsy Nugent type as well. McCain just seems like a guy that would be popular there. I feel like McCain has a real shot to sweep MI, PA and Ohio. McCain holding Ohio and Florida really puts Obama down a break point from the start (to use a tennis analogy).
Except when it comes to playing political hardball, Republicans traditionally bring knives to a gunfight.
Southeast Ohio supported the socialist limp wrist Strickland for governor in 06 and really does not have the voting population to even begin to offset Cleveland and Columbus.
Ohio’s electoral votes will depend on the state of the economy in November, not race or guns.
Strickland had the huge advantage of being from southern Ohio (Lucasville) and serving as congressman for much of southeastern Ohio during the last decade. It is the area of the state that will decide in ‘08, whether you choose to believe it or not. The Cleveland area and northeast Ohio will trend towards Obama, Cincinnati and southwest Ohio will offset that in support of McCain, Columbus and central Ohio will basically be a wash (Kerry carried Franklin County in ‘04). Southeastern Ohio will be the difference and even if we have 10% unemployment in October, this area will never support a commie and elitist like Obama. You don’t have to believe me, you just watch it unfold in November.
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