Dan Rather: Summer polls in presidential campaign are pure folly

The Seattle Post Intelligencer ^ | August 2, 2008 | Dan Rather

[2ndDivisionVet]

I figured the author's name was it's own barf alert. This is the media getting the Kool-aid swilling lemmings ready for Senator Obama's defeat in the Fall, IMO.

[TexasNative2000]

Hmmmmmm.......’Dan Rather’ and ‘pure folly’ in the same sentence.

[Crimson Elephant]

I was actually surprised at how sane and relatively accurate the piece is.

All fair points IMO.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Maybe his meds are finally working?

[Soliton]

If you must search for historical antecedents, you could also look at 1980, when unpopular incumbent Jimmy Carter ran a close race against Ronald Reagan

What nonsense. Bush isn't running. McCain isn't an incumbent. Unfortunately, this is a lot more like Dole/ Clinton.

[mass55th]

This just in from a Kinko’s near you...

[DallasBiff]

If Obama was up by 20 Dan Rather would be saying that summer polls means that the election is over.

[comebacknewt]

perhaps this is advantage Obama, as one theory has it that pollsters, who only use land lines to place their polling calls, are missing a lot of Obama's younger, cell-phone-only supporters.

I'm pretty sure most pollsters use random number generators that would indeed pick up cell phone users. Plus, the same methods that caused Obambi's numbers to be overstated in the primaries are the same methods used today.

Then, add the fact that the Republican candidate almost always underpolls actual performance, and I can see no valid reason to think Obama is in better shape than the polls suggest.

[screaminsunshine]

If Oblahma had a lead Blather would say the polls are all telling and all knowing. Republicans need to hang Pelosi around Oblahmas neck.

[comebacknewt]

perhaps this is advantage Obama, as one theory has it that pollsters, who only use land lines to place their polling calls, are missing a lot of Obama's younger, cell-phone-only supporters.

The parallels aren't really there for that either IMO.

Clinton was a relatively popular incumbent. He held a commanding lead over Dole for almost the enitre election. IIRC, the only time Dole got as close as McCain is right now was immediately after the GOP convention.

Even at that, Clinton underperformed his poll numbers. Virtually every pollster had him comfortably above 50%, and as we all know, he actually finished below that mark.

[BerniesFriend]

I agree with you about the article..I almost wonder if someone else wrote it..

[rbmillerjr]

LOL.

Pure coincidence that this comes out when McCain evens it up in the polls...what a tool.

[Soliton]

During the primaries the MSM always said that Obama polled higher than reality because of the Bradley effect. Now they are saying he is actually higher than the polls.

[chris_bdba]

It’s really getting so transparent isn’t it? When the polls are close they are folly but when BO is ahead it is in bold print. I think there might be a whole lot of long faces on Nov 5th when they realize that they have lost the WH, have a split Senate, and possibly have lost seats also in the house.

[DoughtyOne]

I remembered how Robert Redford recently said that you "could kiss the Democratic Party goodbye" if Obama, its presumptive presidential nominee, goes down in defeat this Election Day.

Like this little gem...

The writer did address it as overkill, so I do have to give him credit for that.

Redford, what a waste of oxygen.

[DoughtyOne]

I take that back... “...MAY be overkill...” Dan Blather at his best.

[DoughtyOne]

Exactly! Polls don’t count if my guy has slipped in them.

Was it Rush who stated that Obama had to ahead by at least ten points, to even be a player, since those polls are so biased? I think that’s an accurate observation.

[big'ol_freeper]

Dan is absolutely correct here. After all, the MSM has not had the opportunity to pull the full range of shenanigans before the conventions. Especially the last minute “revelation” about the Republican candidate tactic they are so famous for.

[bpjam]

If Dan “I’ll Cheat To Win An Election” Rather, is already making excused for his candidate and hedging his bets by reaching for sh!t by trying to compare 2008 to 1980 that we can be sure that the ‘highest turnout in history’ is showing serious signs of collapse.

Enjoy your next loss Dan!!!!! You deserved every one of them.

[Canedawg]

“Pure coincidence that this comes out when McCain evens it up in the polls...what a tool.”

Yep. I have read on this site more than once that it is not unusual for the Dim candidate to be ahead at this point of the campaign. That it is as close as it is doesn’t bode well for Barryboy Hussein. Rather is just spinning it in the best possible light.