Dan Rather: Summer polls in presidential campaign are pure folly

The Seattle Post Intelligencer ^ | August 2, 2008 | Dan Rather

[2ndDivisionVet]

As your reporter read the umpteenth piece last week wondering why Barack Obama's lead in the polls (six points among registered voters, according to Gallup's latest) isn't "bigger," I remembered how Robert Redford recently said that you "could kiss the Democratic Party goodbye" if Obama, its presumptive presidential nominee, goes down in defeat this Election Day.

This may be overstating the case – the Democratic Party would not cease to exist if presumptive Republican nominee John McCain emerges triumphant on Election Day. But a presidential loss in an election year when so many indicators are going its way (an incumbent Republican president with approval numbers in the 20 percent range, an electorate focusing on the economy, and on and on) would likely lead to a prolonged wander in the wilderness, akin to what the British Labor Party experienced in the pre-Tony Blair years. The post-election recriminations within the Democratic Party, taken alone, would see to that.

That scenario and eight years of the Bush administration have a lot of Democrats viewing this year's contest as the most important presidential election in years – a veritable "must win." To achieve this must-win, Democratic primary voters and superdelegates opted not for one of the "safe" choices among the large and varied field of primary contenders, but for a history-making candidate. (The same would be true if the party had ultimately settled on Hillary Clinton.)

For the Democrats, there is a lot riding on bringing history to fruition. Maybe anxiety provoked by this fact is at the root of some of those columns wondering why Obama's polling lead over McCain is "only" a few points, three months before Election Day.

A few words about these polls. First and foremost, no matter whom one wants to see in the White House, paying close attention to summer polls is pure folly. Some say to this line of reasoning, "Sure, but look at Michael Dukakis, for example: He was up 17 points over George H.W. Bush in 1988." And Dukakis lost – so what, precisely, is the point here?

If you must search for historical antecedents, you could also look at 1980, when unpopular incumbent Jimmy Carter ran a close race against Ronald Reagan until very late in the campaign, when voters evidently decided they were comfortable with the former actor and onetime governor of California. Reagan went on to win by nine points in an electoral landslide.

But as they say in the disclaimers that run at the end of ads for investment services, past performance does not necessarily serve as a predictor of future results. And it's worth remembering that polls haven't exactly been the most reliable indicators so far in this election season. Perhaps this is advantage McCain, as Obama polled better than he performed in the run-up to the New Hampshire and California primaries – and perhaps this is advantage Obama, as one theory has it that pollsters, who only use land lines to place their polling calls, are missing a lot of Obama's younger, cell-phone-only supporters.

Obama, a relative unknown on the national stage until only recently, is running against a well-known senator and war hero who – whether you agree or not – has an image as a straight-talking maverick. McCain's campaign hasn't been strong out of the gate, but he remains a formidable candidate and well-matched opponent to Obama. Given the two previous presidential elections, no one should be surprised that this race is close now, no matter what the indicators. And those who know their history also know that, in this historic campaign, any number of things could happen between now and Nov. 4 – including several reversals leading to a photo finish.

[2ndDivisionVet]

I figured the author's name was it's own barf alert. This is the media getting the Kool-aid swilling lemmings ready for Senator Obama's defeat in the Fall, IMO.

[TexasNative2000]

Hmmmmmm.......’Dan Rather’ and ‘pure folly’ in the same sentence.

[Crimson Elephant]

I was actually surprised at how sane and relatively accurate the piece is.

All fair points IMO.

[2ndDivisionVet]

Maybe his meds are finally working?

[Soliton]

If you must search for historical antecedents, you could also look at 1980, when unpopular incumbent Jimmy Carter ran a close race against Ronald Reagan

What nonsense. Bush isn't running. McCain isn't an incumbent. Unfortunately, this is a lot more like Dole/ Clinton.

[mass55th]

This just in from a Kinko’s near you...

[DallasBiff]

If Obama was up by 20 Dan Rather would be saying that summer polls means that the election is over.

[comebacknewt]

perhaps this is advantage Obama, as one theory has it that pollsters, who only use land lines to place their polling calls, are missing a lot of Obama's younger, cell-phone-only supporters.

I'm pretty sure most pollsters use random number generators that would indeed pick up cell phone users. Plus, the same methods that caused Obambi's numbers to be overstated in the primaries are the same methods used today.

Then, add the fact that the Republican candidate almost always underpolls actual performance, and I can see no valid reason to think Obama is in better shape than the polls suggest.

[screaminsunshine]

If Oblahma had a lead Blather would say the polls are all telling and all knowing. Republicans need to hang Pelosi around Oblahmas neck.

[comebacknewt]

perhaps this is advantage Obama, as one theory has it that pollsters, who only use land lines to place their polling calls, are missing a lot of Obama's younger, cell-phone-only supporters.

The parallels aren't really there for that either IMO.

Clinton was a relatively popular incumbent. He held a commanding lead over Dole for almost the enitre election. IIRC, the only time Dole got as close as McCain is right now was immediately after the GOP convention.

Even at that, Clinton underperformed his poll numbers. Virtually every pollster had him comfortably above 50%, and as we all know, he actually finished below that mark.

[BerniesFriend]

I agree with you about the article..I almost wonder if someone else wrote it..

[rbmillerjr]

LOL.

Pure coincidence that this comes out when McCain evens it up in the polls...what a tool.

[Soliton]

During the primaries the MSM always said that Obama polled higher than reality because of the Bradley effect. Now they are saying he is actually higher than the polls.

[chris_bdba]

It’s really getting so transparent isn’t it? When the polls are close they are folly but when BO is ahead it is in bold print. I think there might be a whole lot of long faces on Nov 5th when they realize that they have lost the WH, have a split Senate, and possibly have lost seats also in the house.

[DoughtyOne]

I remembered how Robert Redford recently said that you "could kiss the Democratic Party goodbye" if Obama, its presumptive presidential nominee, goes down in defeat this Election Day.

Like this little gem...

The writer did address it as overkill, so I do have to give him credit for that.

Redford, what a waste of oxygen.

[DoughtyOne]

I take that back... “...MAY be overkill...” Dan Blather at his best.

[DoughtyOne]

Exactly! Polls don’t count if my guy has slipped in them.

Was it Rush who stated that Obama had to ahead by at least ten points, to even be a player, since those polls are so biased? I think that’s an accurate observation.

[big'ol_freeper]

Dan is absolutely correct here. After all, the MSM has not had the opportunity to pull the full range of shenanigans before the conventions. Especially the last minute “revelation” about the Republican candidate tactic they are so famous for.

[bpjam]

If Dan “I’ll Cheat To Win An Election” Rather, is already making excused for his candidate and hedging his bets by reaching for sh!t by trying to compare 2008 to 1980 that we can be sure that the ‘highest turnout in history’ is showing serious signs of collapse.

Enjoy your next loss Dan!!!!! You deserved every one of them.

[Canedawg]

“Pure coincidence that this comes out when McCain evens it up in the polls...what a tool.”

Yep. I have read on this site more than once that it is not unusual for the Dim candidate to be ahead at this point of the campaign. That it is as close as it is doesn’t bode well for Barryboy Hussein. Rather is just spinning it in the best possible light.