Dan Rather: Summer polls in presidential campaign are pure folly

The Seattle Post Intelligencer ^ | August 2, 2008 | Dan Rather

[gusopol3]

it was always the Bushes that brought the hater out in him, the rest of the time he was just your garden variety, card-carrying leftist, and probably a step down in malevolence from Cronkite.

[STONEWALLS]

....for once I’m with Rather....summer polls are crap....we need to all start putting money away for the Fall push...McCain will have to PAY to get his story out...Obama gets his out for FREE courtesy of the MSM.

[4Liberty]

Dan who??

[the invisib1e hand]

dan who?

[hinckley buzzard]

Gunga Dan gets one right—I have been dismissing these early polls as well, except as they might reflect a trend. Of course trends can and do change, but they also tend to last longer than most people would predict.

[hinckley buzzard]

it was always the Bushes that brought the hater out in him,

I think if he were alive, Richard Nixon would disagree.

[Cacique]

btt

[Mr. K]

HEY DAN, WEREN’T YOU FIRED IN DISGRACE FOR AIRING FORGED DOCUMENTS DURING IN THE LAST PRESIDENTIAL RACE?

just wondering - didn’t people used to hang their head in shame and stay quiet in the olden days that you come from?

[gusopol3]

you’re right

[goldfinch]

Obama, as one theory has it that pollsters, who only use land lines to place their polling calls, are missing a lot of Obama's younger, cell-phone-only supporters.

Gallup states that they call cell phones as well as land lines for their daily tracking poll. I do not know what the others do, or even what Gallup does on their regular polls...but I would guess that everyone who conducts polls is aware of the problem and has tried to find a solution.

That said, I actually agree with Dan Rather's premise (how scary is that?)...summer polls are of little value in projecting the winner. At best, they show trends.

[taxesareforever]

If you must search for historical antecedents, you could also look at 1980, when unpopular incumbent Jimmy Carter ran a close race against Ronald Reagan until very late in the campaign, when voters evidently decided they were comfortable with the former actor and onetime governor of California. Reagan went on to win by nine points in an electoral landslide.

Yeah, just like now. The media is trying to push their candidate and then when their candidate goes on to get clobbered they claim that the voters changed sides. What a bunch of BS.

[jmaroneps37]

Grab another straw and try to figure out what the frequency really is, Kenneth.