Skip to comments.Researcher Predicts 80-year "Little Ice Age" to begin soon.
Posted on 08/19/2008 10:10:46 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk
An expert from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that the Earth will enter a "Little Ice Age" which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity.
Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM, showcased his theories during an international conference he led at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development. Velasco, a specialist in remote sensing systems, said that the recent rupture of the Perito Moreno glacier on the border of Chile and Argentina, unusual for having produced a full austral winter, was not due to global warming. He theorizes that the event was caused during a drought by falling water levels in the river, coupled with colder temperatures.
Dr. Velasco described as "erroneous" predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), of a gradual increase in temperature, the so-called global warming. The models and forecasts of the IPCC "are incorrect because they are based solely on mathematical models and do not include, for example, solar activity," said Velasco, who is also a specialist in predictive image processing. "The phenomenon of climate change," he added, "should include both internal and external factors. Internal would include volcanic activity,while external causes include solar activity."
"Curiously, the Sun never has been seen as a cooling agent, but as a cause of warming. It clearly has roles in both cooling and warming," he said.
At present, Velasco holds that the world is going through a transition phase of considerably diminished solar activity, "so that in two years or so, there will be the beginnings of a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years,and the immediate consequence of this" he added, "will be drought."
Analyses by the IPCC concluded that the "Little Ice Age",a cold period that lasted since the beginning of the fourteenth century until the mid-nineteenth century. was a regional phenomena or accentuation of local effects. But Velasco disagrees. He says that, "Current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of abnormal heat or cold in this timeframe," and that it must have been caused by other factors.
Highlights and Dates
According to Velasco, effects will be clearly observable within in approximately two years. However, in early July, Velasco Herrera said that satellite data indicate it is possible that this period of global cooling may have even already begun as early as 2005.
He has predicted that cooling would fully arrive within 30 or 40 years.
We’ve heard this again and again. Where is it? Keep your cooling, I want it to stay warm.
Time to get those coal- and oil-fired power plants online. Get those Hummers and Excursions out of the garage. Dump your candy-ass CFL and put in some incandescent lights. We gotta beat this thing into the ground!
Does the global warming gang know about this? I don’t know what to be afraid of now - boiling to death or freezing? It’s so confusing.
Predict away, but nobody predicted our current lack of sunspots, and nobody knows when that might end.
One of those quack deniers. Imagine the idea that the sun plays a role in our climate. The sun, for crying out loud! What could the sun possibly have to do with our climate???
There goes his Nobel Prize.
I'm afraid that NASA and the NOAA aren't going to be able to successfully B.S. the public about this for too much longer.
Another global warming denier...
Cooling is far more dangerous than warming. Think crop failures, famine, disease.
Thats true. After July, we have had the coolest summer in years. I live in the southeast where it is usually very hot. Its been sweater weather since the end of July.
Good, it will help with the hot flashes!
I want to read about how he thinks the Sun is going to be a COOLing agent! What, a giant heat sink?
I hope this is a translation problem and that just means that it will not warm as much as usual.
Otherwise, it means he's still falling into the IPCC wordgame.
So...did they start to actually look at the real temperatures and found out they were below the GW expectations? So...is that what constitutes the onset of an ice-age?
But, but what about all the damage caused by SUV’s? And it’s supposed to global warming! Oh my, what am I going to do with all this “green stock” when the whole world will be white? and isn’t that racist? Does that mean that the “white party” is going to win, in the end?
Eat your heart out,algore and Whaa Dean and Obamama and the rest of the RATnazis.
I know! I check the numbers almost daily and chant No Maunder No Maunder No Maunder...
Cooling is far worse than warming.
Even worse, there goes his gubmint grants.
He’s going to be thrown under the hybrid bus
The last time the earth had a little ice age millions died from starvation and pestilence.
I know that this is the coolest summer I have seen since I moved to this area almost 10 years ago.
I think he’s saying that the activities of the sun can result in either a warming or a cooling of the atmosphere. The relationship is not direct, necessarily, but since decreased solar activity would correlate with cooling in the Earth’s atmosphere, it can be considered as a cooling agent. The term “agent” here has specific scientific meaning.
Ok, I can’t go quite as far as sweater weather, but this morning, taking the dogs out, I noticed how pleasant it was.
I live in Gainesville, Florida...we have hot and humid pegged.
My wife and I were talking about it the other day, it has been a remarkably mild summer.
Wrong. It starts in about 4 mo. and will be known as winter.
Minority women and children hit the hardest.
Republican’s blocking legislation to resolve the crisis.
UN convenes, but needs billions more from the world’s richest nations to address the looming crisis.
Did I get it all?
Sun cycles were described back in the mid-19th century.
The current minimum is well within statistical projections.
It’s not even the longest this century.
But not according to the global warmers.
If its not out of service with mechanical failure.
That’s why I said “predict away”- he has nothing to go on to say what the Sun’s output will be next week.
I didn’t know that solar activity had anything to do with temperature. I thoiught it was the size car I drive.
The only solution of course will be a global socialist command economy.
A little translation problemo, dude. What the good Doc is saying is that "Whenna da Sun, sheesa no worka so good, we getta leetle chili maybe heare ona de Eart." ¿No entiendes?
And blame me, I translated the translator.
>>The last time the earth had a little ice age millions died from starvation and pestilence.<<
And the last time the earth was as hot as algore claims it will be, most people were serfs, not free.
So your point is that starvation and pestilence are far worse than no freedom? Don’t think so.
Next week there will be no sunspots.
On the other hand, this could go on for a few more months, or for the next 70 years.
There’s only a couple of hundred years worth of data for a star that’s over 5 billion years old.
And there are no useful theories about why the solar cycle is so variable.
So in general, I agree with you.
The significant message of the article is not global warming or global cooling. It is the fact the sun contributes to either by the point in the natural cycle of the sun’s solar activity. Please be patient and read through these links. Very technical: http://sharpgary.org/landscheidt.html Newsy, but full of dialog following the article by novices and experts: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ Other great climate links: www.climateaudit.org and www.icecap.com. One I like to lurk: www.solarcycle24.com. Read these my friend and be ignorant no more.
Now some smart young fellow from Mexico, figures it all out.
Won't be long now. Someone at Harvard will figure it all out... as soon as he/she gets back from the Cambridge Obama Rally, that is, and finds a spot for the Volvo, and finishes filling out the Gov Grant Appl to get $1.5 Million to study "The Effect of Global Warming on the Polar Bear's Sexual Development for Same Sex Attraction."
The point I was trying to make is everyone is worried about man made global warming, which is BS, and it’s probably going to get colder, which would be much worse. We can’t control the weather.
I’m having chills already!
The Goracle, upon hearing this, will start convulsing..
He didn't consider solar variation, though- just the angle (and hence amount) of sunlight north of lat 60. Or 65, but north.
My MIL looked like I had just told her that I’d killed her dog when I told her that the earth was cooling instead of warming.
I said, “don’t worry, I’m sure the lefties solution will be exactly the same - less freedom, more socialism”.
As any child knows, the correct response to any climate change challenge is mass religious hysteria, followed by torture of the heretics, and higher taxes.
One day we should be much better at predicting space weather and therefore more convincing to the idiots that inhabit the left and some on the right.