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Researcher Predicts 80-year "Little Ice Age" to begin soon.
Milenio ^ | August 19, 200 | Víctor Manuel Velasco Herrera

Posted on 08/19/2008 10:10:46 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk

An expert from the National Autonomous University of Mexico predicted that the Earth will enter a "Little Ice Age" which will last from 60 to 80 years and may be caused by the decrease in solar activity.

Victor Manuel Velasco Herrera, a researcher at the Institute of Geophysics at UNAM, showcased his theories during an international conference he led at the Centre for Applied Sciences and Technological Development. Velasco, a specialist in remote sensing systems, said that the recent rupture of the Perito Moreno glacier on the border of Chile and Argentina, unusual for having produced a full austral winter, was not due to global warming. He theorizes that the event was caused during a drought by falling water levels in the river, coupled with colder temperatures.

Dr. Velasco described as "erroneous" predictions of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), of a gradual increase in temperature, the so-called global warming. The models and forecasts of the IPCC "are incorrect because they are based solely on mathematical models and do not include, for example, solar activity," said Velasco, who is also a specialist in predictive image processing. "The phenomenon of climate change," he added, "should include both internal and external factors. Internal would include volcanic activity,while external causes include solar activity."

"Curiously, the Sun never has been seen as a cooling agent, but as a cause of warming. It clearly has roles in both cooling and warming," he said.

At present, Velasco holds that the world is going through a transition phase of considerably diminished solar activity, "so that in two years or so, there will be the beginnings of a small ice age that lasts from 60 to 80 years,and the immediate consequence of this" he added, "will be drought."

Analyses by the IPCC concluded that the "Little Ice Age",a cold period that lasted since the beginning of the fourteenth century until the mid-nineteenth century. was a regional phenomena or accentuation of local effects. But Velasco disagrees. He says that, "Current evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of abnormal heat or cold in this timeframe," and that it must have been caused by other factors.

Highlights and Dates
According to Velasco, effects will be clearly observable within in approximately two years. However, in early July, Velasco Herrera said that satellite data indicate it is possible that this period of global cooling may have even already begun as early as 2005.
He has predicted that cooling would fully arrive within 30 or 40 years.


TOPICS: Foreign Affairs; Mexico
KEYWORDS: catastrophism; climatechange; globalcooling; globalwarming; littleiceage; predictions; sunspots
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Another scientist heard from, but not around here!
1 posted on 08/19/2008 10:10:47 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk
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To: Kenny Bunk

We’ve heard this again and again. Where is it? Keep your cooling, I want it to stay warm.


2 posted on 08/19/2008 10:12:03 AM PDT by wastedyears (Show me your precious darlings, and I will crush them all)
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To: xcamel; qam1; Killing Time; Beowulf; Mr. Peabody; RW_Whacko; honolulugal; SideoutFred; Ole Okie

Ping


3 posted on 08/19/2008 10:12:21 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (GOP Plank: Pump MORE US Crude--2Xrefining capacity -- Coal /METHANOL fuel-- Build Nukes)
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To: Kenny Bunk

Time to get those coal- and oil-fired power plants online. Get those Hummers and Excursions out of the garage. Dump your candy-ass CFL and put in some incandescent lights. We gotta beat this thing into the ground!


4 posted on 08/19/2008 10:14:59 AM PDT by SlowBoat407 (ANWR would look great in pumps.)
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To: Kenny Bunk

Does the global warming gang know about this? I don’t know what to be afraid of now - boiling to death or freezing? It’s so confusing.


5 posted on 08/19/2008 10:16:18 AM PDT by JudyinCanada
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To: Kenny Bunk

Predict away, but nobody predicted our current lack of sunspots, and nobody knows when that might end.


6 posted on 08/19/2008 10:17:47 AM PDT by DBrow
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To: Kenny Bunk

One of those quack deniers. Imagine the idea that the sun plays a role in our climate. The sun, for crying out loud! What could the sun possibly have to do with our climate???


7 posted on 08/19/2008 10:17:51 AM PDT by Always Right (Obama: more arrogant than Bill Clinton, more naive than Jimmy Carter, and more liberal than LBJ.)
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To: Kenny Bunk

There goes his Nobel Prize.


8 posted on 08/19/2008 10:20:42 AM PDT by Spok (Whatever you say about McCain, it must be admitted that he's no B. Hussein Obama.)
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To: DBrow
We're just a few weeks away from being more than one standard deviation beyond the normal length of a solar minimum.

I'm afraid that NASA and the NOAA aren't going to be able to successfully B.S. the public about this for too much longer.

9 posted on 08/19/2008 10:21:42 AM PDT by jpl ("First come smiles, then lies. Last is gunfire." - Roland of Gilead)
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To: Kenny Bunk
The earth is cooling!!!

The earth is warming!!!!!

The earth is cooling!!!!!!!!


10 posted on 08/19/2008 10:22:01 AM PDT by fleagle ( An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last. -Winston Churchill)
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To: Kenny Bunk

Another global warming denier...


11 posted on 08/19/2008 10:22:06 AM PDT by Tzimisce (How Would Mohammed Vote? Obama for President!)
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To: wastedyears

Cooling is far more dangerous than warming. Think crop failures, famine, disease.


12 posted on 08/19/2008 10:22:31 AM PDT by MediaMole
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To: fleagle
The earth is cooling!!!

The earth is warming!!!!!

The earth is cooling!!!!!!!!



13 posted on 08/19/2008 10:25:46 AM PDT by Sopater (A wise man's heart inclines him to the right, but a fool's heart to the left. ~ Ecc 10:2 (NASB))
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To: jpl
I'm afraid that NASA and the NOAA aren't going to be able to successfully B.S. the public about this for too much longer.

Thats true. After July, we have had the coolest summer in years. I live in the southeast where it is usually very hot. Its been sweater weather since the end of July.

14 posted on 08/19/2008 10:25:51 AM PDT by beckysueb (Drill here! Drill now!)
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To: Kenny Bunk

Good, it will help with the hot flashes!


15 posted on 08/19/2008 10:28:31 AM PDT by brytlea (Obama--Jimmy Carter's Second Term)
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To: Kenny Bunk
"Curiously, the Sun never has been seen as a cooling agent, but as a cause of warming. It clearly has roles in both cooling and warming," he said.

I want to read about how he thinks the Sun is going to be a COOLing agent! What, a giant heat sink?

I hope this is a translation problem and that just means that it will not warm as much as usual.

Otherwise, it means he's still falling into the IPCC wordgame.

16 posted on 08/19/2008 10:29:20 AM PDT by Gondring (I'll give up my right to die when hell freezes over my dead body!)
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To: Kenny Bunk

So...did they start to actually look at the real temperatures and found out they were below the GW expectations? So...is that what constitutes the onset of an ice-age?


17 posted on 08/19/2008 10:30:35 AM PDT by truthluva ("Character is doing the right thing even when no one is looking" - JC Watts)
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To: Kenny Bunk

But, but what about all the damage caused by SUV’s? And it’s supposed to global warming! Oh my, what am I going to do with all this “green stock” when the whole world will be white? and isn’t that racist? Does that mean that the “white party” is going to win, in the end?

Eat your heart out,algore and Whaa Dean and Obamama and the rest of the RATnazis.


18 posted on 08/19/2008 10:30:35 AM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners.)
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To: jpl

I know! I check the numbers almost daily and chant No Maunder No Maunder No Maunder...

Cooling is far worse than warming.


19 posted on 08/19/2008 10:32:32 AM PDT by DBrow
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To: Spok
There goes his Nobel Prize.

Even worse, there goes his gubmint grants.

20 posted on 08/19/2008 10:32:34 AM PDT by Ole Okie (Who are you going to believe anyway, Gore or your lyin' eyes?)
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To: Kenny Bunk

He’s going to be thrown under the hybrid bus


21 posted on 08/19/2008 10:34:12 AM PDT by JRios1968 (I doubled the pressure in my Obamas, now my fuel gauge runs backwards and my tank is overflowing!)
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To: NTHockey

The last time the earth had a little ice age millions died from starvation and pestilence.


22 posted on 08/19/2008 10:36:01 AM PDT by kempo
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To: Kenny Bunk
It's a good thing Mother Nature stepped in to buy us more time to fix the climate crisis. If we don't get a handle on the CO2 soon, the next time we start to warm up we will be cooked for sure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! /s
23 posted on 08/19/2008 10:37:11 AM PDT by chaos_5
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To: wastedyears
We’ve heard this again and again. Where is it? Keep your cooling, I want it to stay warm.

I know that this is the coolest summer I have seen since I moved to this area almost 10 years ago.

24 posted on 08/19/2008 10:37:15 AM PDT by CA Conservative
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To: Gondring

I think he’s saying that the activities of the sun can result in either a warming or a cooling of the atmosphere. The relationship is not direct, necessarily, but since decreased solar activity would correlate with cooling in the Earth’s atmosphere, it can be considered as a cooling agent. The term “agent” here has specific scientific meaning.


25 posted on 08/19/2008 10:37:46 AM PDT by Little Pig (Is it time for "Cowboys and Muslims" yet?)
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To: beckysueb

Ok, I can’t go quite as far as sweater weather, but this morning, taking the dogs out, I noticed how pleasant it was.

I live in Gainesville, Florida...we have hot and humid pegged.

My wife and I were talking about it the other day, it has been a remarkably mild summer.


26 posted on 08/19/2008 10:38:06 AM PDT by mattdono (150 Million bloodthirsty Arabs vs. 4.8 Million Jewish Israelis. That's not fair. [Off Sarcasm])
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To: wastedyears
Talk about being UN-politically correct!!!....
They might lynch this dude..
27 posted on 08/19/2008 10:38:28 AM PDT by hosepipe (This propaganda has been edited to include some fully orbed hyperbole....)
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To: Kenny Bunk

Wrong. It starts in about 4 mo. and will be known as winter.


28 posted on 08/19/2008 10:38:52 AM PDT by Waco (Another ex-spurt has spoken)
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To: kempo

Bush’s fault.

Minority women and children hit the hardest.

Republican’s blocking legislation to resolve the crisis.

UN convenes, but needs billions more from the world’s richest nations to address the looming crisis.

Did I get it all?


29 posted on 08/19/2008 10:39:47 AM PDT by Blueflag (Res ipsa loquitur)
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To: DBrow

Sun cycles were described back in the mid-19th century.

The current minimum is well within statistical projections.

It’s not even the longest this century.

But not according to the global warmers.


30 posted on 08/19/2008 10:40:33 AM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: JRios1968

If its not out of service with mechanical failure.


31 posted on 08/19/2008 10:41:23 AM PDT by fightinbluhen51 ("...If it moves, tax it, if it moves faster, regulate it, if it stops, subsidies it.")
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To: <1/1,000,000th%

That’s why I said “predict away”- he has nothing to go on to say what the Sun’s output will be next week.


32 posted on 08/19/2008 10:42:58 AM PDT by DBrow
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To: Kenny Bunk

I didn’t know that solar activity had anything to do with temperature. I thoiught it was the size car I drive.


33 posted on 08/19/2008 10:43:11 AM PDT by purpleraine
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To: Kenny Bunk

The only solution of course will be a global socialist command economy.


34 posted on 08/19/2008 10:44:12 AM PDT by ElkGroveDan (The road to hell is paved with the stones of pragmatism.)
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To: Gondring
Sun ...been seen as a cooling agent, but as a cause of warming

A little translation problemo, dude. What the good Doc is saying is that "Whenna da Sun, sheesa no worka so good, we getta leetle chili maybe heare ona de Eart." ¿No entiendes?

And blame me, I translated the translator.

35 posted on 08/19/2008 10:44:52 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (GOP Plank: Pump MORE US Crude--2Xrefining capacity -- Coal /METHANOL fuel-- Build Nukes)
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To: kempo

>>The last time the earth had a little ice age millions died from starvation and pestilence.<<

And the last time the earth was as hot as algore claims it will be, most people were serfs, not free.

So your point is that starvation and pestilence are far worse than no freedom? Don’t think so.


36 posted on 08/19/2008 10:45:35 AM PDT by NTHockey (Rules of engagement #1: Take no prisoners.)
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To: JudyinCanada
Does the global warming gang know about this? I'm pretty sure they're working on it. They're working hard, tweaking their "climate change computer models" which will prove that global warming causes "little 80-year ice ages".
37 posted on 08/19/2008 10:48:27 AM PDT by adorno
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To: DBrow

Next week there will be no sunspots.

On the other hand, this could go on for a few more months, or for the next 70 years.

There’s only a couple of hundred years worth of data for a star that’s over 5 billion years old.

And there are no useful theories about why the solar cycle is so variable.

So in general, I agree with you.


38 posted on 08/19/2008 10:51:05 AM PDT by <1/1,000,000th%
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To: wastedyears

The significant message of the article is not global warming or global cooling. It is the fact the sun contributes to either by the point in the natural cycle of the sun’s solar activity. Please be patient and read through these links. Very technical: http://sharpgary.org/landscheidt.html Newsy, but full of dialog following the article by novices and experts: http://wattsupwiththat.wordpress.com/ Other great climate links: www.climateaudit.org and www.icecap.com. One I like to lurk: www.solarcycle24.com. Read these my friend and be ignorant no more.


39 posted on 08/19/2008 10:53:40 AM PDT by quegley
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To: <1/1,000,000th%
Amazing, ain't it? Milankovitch, working in the middle of 19th Century Serbia, figures this all out.

Now some smart young fellow from Mexico, figures it all out.

Won't be long now. Someone at Harvard will figure it all out... as soon as he/she gets back from the Cambridge Obama Rally, that is, and finds a spot for the Volvo, and finishes filling out the Gov Grant Appl to get $1.5 Million to study "The Effect of Global Warming on the Polar Bear's Sexual Development for Same Sex Attraction."

40 posted on 08/19/2008 10:56:52 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (GOP Plank: Pump MORE US Crude--2Xrefining capacity -- Coal /METHANOL fuel-- Build Nukes)
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To: NTHockey

The point I was trying to make is everyone is worried about man made global warming, which is BS, and it’s probably going to get colder, which would be much worse. We can’t control the weather.


41 posted on 08/19/2008 10:56:56 AM PDT by kempo
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To: Kenny Bunk
Al Gore please pick up the GREEN courtesy phone. Thank you!!
42 posted on 08/19/2008 10:57:29 AM PDT by MaineConservative (Charlie Summers -- an Iraqi Vet and businessman for Maine's CD-1)
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To: Kenny Bunk
The sun has been devoid of spots for almost 8 months. Solar flux has been hanging around 67. That's consistent with observations during the last "little ice age" and Maunder minimum. It should be an interesting winter.
43 posted on 08/19/2008 10:57:33 AM PDT by Myrddin
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To: Kenny Bunk

I’m having chills already!


44 posted on 08/19/2008 10:58:28 AM PDT by Cold Heat (Soetoro???? Who is Barry Soetoro? Bwahahahahahahahaha!)
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To: Kenny Bunk

The Goracle, upon hearing this, will start convulsing..


45 posted on 08/19/2008 10:59:19 AM PDT by sheik yerbouty ( Make America and the world a jihad free zone!)
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To: Kenny Bunk; Killing Time; Beowulf; Mr. Peabody; RW_Whacko; honolulugal; SideoutFred; Ole Okie; ...


FReepmail me to get on or off
Click on POGW graphic for full GW rundown
Dr. John Ray's
GREENIE WATCH

The Great Global Warming Swindle Video

Not Evil Just Wrong (mash here)
Hmmmm...


46 posted on 08/19/2008 10:59:37 AM PDT by xcamel (Conservatives start smart, and get rich, liberals start rich, and get stupid.)
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To: Kenny Bunk
Milankovitch used three orbital perturbations to get his theory, and he got a pretty good match that got better as we got new data.

He didn't consider solar variation, though- just the angle (and hence amount) of sunlight north of lat 60. Or 65, but north.

47 posted on 08/19/2008 11:00:20 AM PDT by DBrow
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To: ElkGroveDan

My MIL looked like I had just told her that I’d killed her dog when I told her that the earth was cooling instead of warming.

I said, “don’t worry, I’m sure the lefties solution will be exactly the same - less freedom, more socialism”.


48 posted on 08/19/2008 11:00:59 AM PDT by MrB (You can't reason people out of a position that they didn't use reason to get into in the first place)
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To: quegley
How dare you attempt to hi-jack my thread with factual references!

As any child knows, the correct response to any climate change challenge is mass religious hysteria, followed by torture of the heretics, and higher taxes.

49 posted on 08/19/2008 11:00:59 AM PDT by Kenny Bunk (GOP Plank: Pump MORE US Crude--2Xrefining capacity -- Coal /METHANOL fuel-- Build Nukes)
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To: Myrddin
Yeah, I've been looking at that for years. saw it peak, and now I see it ultra low and stable. We know so little real definitive data about these sun cycles and we work mostly with generalizations but are learning a lot more as we speak.

One day we should be much better at predicting space weather and therefore more convincing to the idiots that inhabit the left and some on the right.

50 posted on 08/19/2008 11:02:00 AM PDT by Cold Heat (Soetoro???? Who is Barry Soetoro? Bwahahahahahahahaha!)
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