Posted on 08/22/2008 6:05:20 AM PDT by 300magnum
We've all read that speculators are driving oil prices artificially high — a claim that gets more interesting in light of oil's recent fall below $115. But maybe we're looking at it from the wrong perspective. Suppose that major suppliers in the oil industry are these manipulative speculators.
Is it possible that oil prices are rigged? You bet. Here's how:
Just how would you raise prices if you were an oil supplier? Controlling the supply — as in the 1973 OPEC embargo — has become less effective with more sources of oil worldwide. And oil suppliers clearly cannot raise prices by controlling demand in the physical oil market; ultimately, they need to sell their oil, not buy it. However, with the market inefficiencies that we expose here, oil suppliers can regain the upper hand by artificially inflating demand using a different market. To understand this mechanism, we must take a glimpse into the future — the futures market, that is.
The price of oil reported in the news is actually the price of oil in the futures market. In this market, traders do not exchange physical barrels of oil, but instead trade contracts which obligate them to exchange oil at a quoted price at a specific date in the future, usually months in advance. Such a contract allows companies to hedge positions by locking in prices early. Airlines might buy futures contracts to reduce their exposure to rising fuel prices. Conversely, oil companies might sell futures contracts to assure a profit against future price drops. It's all about reducing risk and uncertainty. But what if oil suppliers were instead buying oil futures, compounding their own risk and reaping enormous profits from the explosion in the price of physical oil?
The futures market has become the public driving force in pricing
(Excerpt) Read more at time.com ...
Yes. Get government out of the picture.
Come now.
BOTH of our stellar presidential candidates have bragged about going after BigOil, so that MUST be where the fault lies for “high” oil prices.
Damn right they’re rigged....by your benevolent state and federal government.
They take gas taxes and rather than build roads and lanes to get the traffic moving (30 min at 55 mph or 2 hrs at 15 mph - which pollutes more?) they spend it on pointless idealistic dandelion-powered tramcars or some other boondoggle.
All this ‘alternative energy’ blather can be translated as: ‘we’ve found a new constituency and it’s all the greenie quangos that purport to be developing new technology but can’t get their products above 20 mph.’
Karl Benz and others invented the automobile in the 19th century when there were no computers, no Internet, and no factories - what’s the excuse of the greenies who have all the advantages and more?
This news story is but another indication of how badly our Democrat controlled school system has failed us. Here are the credentials of the authors:
Ari J. Officer teaches financial mathematics at Stanford University. Garrett J. Hayes teaches materials science and engineering at Stanford University
Yes, cause Ms Pelosi will NOT allow for domestic drilling because she is making money off our backs.
“Are Oil Prices Rigged?”
~~~~~~~~~~~
And what was yer first clue?
Russia shows it rigged. Europe is so depended on Russian Natrual Gas for the winter they have let Russia rape Georgia unlike Europe we have oil but won’t get it.
Saw the headline, went to the site, saw “Time”... went elsewhere. Sorry, Time is the “Coast-to-Coast” of magazines.
Oil falls from 147 to 111, a 24% decrease. Meanwhile at the same time, gas prices fall from $4.11 to $3.69, a 10.2% decrease.
Should be obvious.
We need to find our spine and throw this woman and her cohorts out of office.
Are prices rigged?
The answer is a question....is a pig’s ass pork!
“....Oil falls from 147 to 111, a 24% decrease. Meanwhile at the same time, gas prices fall from $4.11 to $3.69, a 10.2% decrease.
Should be obvious....”
Even more obvious:
Oil increases from 100 to 110 (10%) gas jumps from 2.75 to 3.30 (20%) OVERNIGHT!
Oil went from $6.50/bbl for sweet crude in ‘99 to 147 in 2008 (up 22.6 times). Gas went from 0.87 to 4.19 (4.8 times).
Oh yeah, definitely rigged.
Gas should have cost $19.66 a gallon.
How come people only do the math to support the whining?
Another part of the equation is that the station owners are charging for what they think the next shipment might be, not what they actually paid for what you’re pumping right now.
The emperor’s new clothes.
Oh, and NOT all oil is used for gas.
This argument doesn’t hold water. It’s like claiming Ford can make money by buying up Ford stock.
As a trader tried to bid oil futures past market levels, he’d be spending more and more to inflate the price. To make money he has to be able to sell back all the contracts he bought at above-market prices.
That can only happen if his play was fundamentally correct and other traders agree the price should be there...meaning there wasn’t anything “artificial” about the move and nothing was “inflated”, it was just the old price moving to the market price.
If he’s truly artificially inflating the futures, he’ll then be long a ton of expensive contracts as sellers step in to take advantage of the idiotic prices being bid. The price gets slammed back down where it belongs, and he loses.
Oh and if he’s doing it enough to significantly move the market, that means his position is massive, and traders will notice. Traders being the vicious bunch they are will attack the huge long position once they spot it, aggressively selling because they know the guy behind it is probably highly leveraged, meaning his loss gets substantially bigger at each price move...that means he has little room for error, and as soon as traders start to hammer it he’ll exceed his margin and have to puke his position for a massive loss (in doing so, letting the traders who sold against him buy their shorts back cheap and make money...their reward for forcing the market back to efficiency).
You can’t both build up a position big enough to move a market AND be able to liquidate out of that position for a winner. It’s like thinking you can make money by buying your own product if you just buy enough of it...or powering your house with a fan pointed at a windmill. TANSTAAFL.
YES. Although I have no basis to back it up. I will just vote for CHANGE this year and the messiah will part the seas and oil will magically bubble up from the oceans on our coast without any environmental consequences. .10 cent gasoline by January 21, 2009.
Oil was in the teens in 99, but never at $6.50.
Are you talking about the hole ass or the uh.. never mind..
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