Message of change will doom Barack Obama, swing voters warn

Telegraph ^ | August 26, 2008 | Toby Harnden

[Schnucki]

Barack Obama will lose the November election to John McCain unless he overhauls his message of change, outlines specific plans and reassures Americans that he is one of them, according to swing voters in Denver.

The results of a focus group held by Frank Luntz, the leading American pollster, on the eve of the Democratic convention should sound alarm bells for the Obama campaign after a month in which Mr McCain, the Republican, has drawn level in the polls.

"The way that he gets here to the Democratic nomination - 'change' - is not how he gets there, to the White House," said Mr Luntz. "If it's change, by itself, he will fail. Change what? Change how? Change why?" Mr Luntz is a Republican but his work on focus groups is respected on both sides of the aisle.

Some 21 carefully-selected undecided voters were gathered in a conference room in a downtown skyscraper. Observed by The Daily Telegraph and a small group of other media through a one-way mirror, they were grilled by Mr Luntz about their views of the candidates in a two-hour session.

Although 12 said they had voted for President George W. Bush in 2004, not a single person described themselves as a Republican - bad news for Mr McCain, who has to shake off his party label to claim victory.

But these undecideds were willing to separate their disdain for the Republican party from the individual candidates. The one-word descriptions of Mr Obama showed he has mountain to climb to overcome the doubts of these swing voters in the swing state of Colorado - a top Democratic target in November.

Among the words offered for Mr Obama: apocalypse, terrifying, scary, pizzazz, unknown, inexperienced, innovative, new, charismatic, smooth, unaffordable, change, hopeful.

Mr McCain's name inspired: dependable, strong,

[FlingWingFlyer]

I’ve always said, change for change’s sake is for dumbasses. I really get PO’d at these snotty-nosed, 18 and 19 year old college kids who are always running around and whining that we need more “change.” MORONS!

[freespirited]

Among the words offered for Mr Obama: apocalypse, terrifying, scary, pizzazz, unknown, inexperienced, innovative, new, charismatic, smooth, unaffordable, change, hopeful.

fraud, flim flam man, snake oil salesman, champagne socialist, empty suit ...

[butterbattle]

Those words are a pretty good description.

It baffles me why people would regard “change” as inherently good. Apparently, you just say the word really really really loud, and it’ll prove you have the best policies.

[igoramus08]

An ad that questions what has Obama ever changed in his life for the better, would be effective.

[cricket]

They have worn everyone out with 'Climate Change' and 'enough is enough'. . .people don't realllly like change or too much of it.

Think too, Obama's voice promising 'change' is now tiresome and ineffective; the ears designated for this to fall on; now dull.

And there are more than a few; who have figured out just what Obama's 'change' means.

[KJC1]

Obama’s mantra of “Change!” is sounding a lot like Kerry’s foghorning of “I have a plan!”

Vague, useless pablum. Any actual substance either doesn’t exist, or, if it does it would be offensive to the majority of voters if revealed.

[hsalaw]

I really get PO’d at these snotty-nosed, 18 and 19 year old college kids who are always running around and whining that we need more “change.”

Next time they tell you they want "change," give them a couple pennies. Maybe a dime, if you're feeling generous.

[PghBaldy]

GREAT article. I don’t get Dem campaigners. I was a lib for years, but this guy is nothing, and it took one tiny ad after his Berlin speech to finally get the word out that his camapign is made of nothing more substantial than cotton-candy.

[ashtanga]

Elmer Gantry with a pseudo countrified accent and street cred name.

[comebacknewt]

The vast majority of the remaining undecideds are middle class whites. Not exactly the typical Obambi voters.

That is why he is working so hard to paint McCain as out of touch with the middle class. Looks like he still has a lot of work to do by the sound of Luntz's focus group.

[Jeff Chandler]

“Change is good” is the philosophy of a cancer cell.

[stainlessbanner]

Change your name
Change your citizenship
Change your message
Change your campaign funding
Change your church
Change your vote

[Hetty_Fauxvert]

Doesn’t anyone remember the story of King Log and King Stork? The frogs in the swamp got bored with King Log, complaining that all he did was lie around silently, never doing anything. They decided that Stork would make a much better monarch — so tall, so elegant, always going somewhere and doing something. Such a change! So the frogs invited Stork to be their king instead. He accepted — and promptly ate ‘em all up.

Yes, change for the mere sake of change is overrated.

[melsec]

Sadly there are a lot of MORONs and dumbasses out there or you would not have:
a) Obama running for President
b) A Democrat Party

So whether you like it or not “Change” is an idea that you will have to overcome if Obama is to be beaten.

Mel

[goldstategop]

As Rush pointed out from a Battleground poll Monday, 60% of the country is conservative. The disdain for the Republican Party is easily explained. It abandoned conservatism. There's a difference between Americans' aversion to the GOP and their embrace of conservatism.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[goldstategop]

Wrong. If McCain were a principled conservative, he would win in a landslide. His baggage is that he isn't one and tries too hard to pander to the so called moderates. According to the Battleground poll, less than 2% of Americans are middle of the road. 60% are conservative and 38% are liberal.

"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus

[melsec]

Well how the hell did Slick Willie win 2 terms. Your 60% of conservatives must include a lot of lazy voters or many must swing more than they say. If this 60% had their vote for a nominee why didn’t they vote for a conservative or are they too lazy to get off their collective butts.

and BTW 38% is still a lot of dumbasses!

Cheers

Mel

[fightinJAG]

Here’s what I took from what Rush said and the article he read:

While 60% of the country consistently self-describes as conservative, only about 20% of those self-describe as “very conservative.”

Of course, what the difference is between being conservative and very conservative is likely in the eye of the beholder.

That said, however, it seems clear that those who disdain the Republican party (your words) are likely to be within that 20% that describes themselves as “very” conservative.

Certainly, this seems evident around FR, for example. It is those people who feel they are the “most” conservative who also tend to claim that they are “not Republicans” and that they have disdain for the Republican party for not being conservative enough.

If that’s true, that leaves at least 40% of conservatives who, while demonstrably not entirely happy with the Republican party, continue to view it as an appropriate (if not always effective) vehicle to express conservatism in the political realm.

So any aversion that may be seen to the GOP is not, as you posit, because the GOP “abandoned” conservatism, but because, for a certain segment of conservatives, the GOP simply is not conservative *enough.*

Since presidential elections have been mostly close in recent history, the 40% of conservatives who, by and large, make their political home within the GOP need only come up with, say, 5-11% more voters to win the election.

[fightinJAG]

Only 20% describe themselves as “very” conservative. It is mostly among these folks that you’ll find the conservatives who refuse to vote for McCain, regardless that that helps Obambi get elected.

I forget the number, but it was the same on the liberal side-—it was an even smaller percentage that self-described as “very” liberal. These are the people who would never vote for a Republican and who are willing to refuse to vote for the Rat nominee, regardless that that helps the Republican nominee get elected.

So with 40% self-describing as conservative (as opposed to “very conservative), and something like 30% self-describing as liberal (as opposed to “very liberal”), not many liberals need to cross-over to elect the Republican nominee. That’s even if NO “very conservative” voter votes Republican (which is unlikely to be the case. While many will say they refuse to vote for McCain, many of those will think better of that position when push comes to shove.)