Rasmussen: 9/6/2008: Obama 46% McCain 45%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll ^

[CatOwner]

Rasmussen is unchanged from yesterday, and now includes two days of Palin's speech and one day of McCain's speech. Either Wednesday was a really bad polling day for McCain, or we are overestimating the bounce, if any, that McCain-Palin got.

[LS]

Obama isn't teetering any more than McCain is soaring. The two are almost exactly where they were a month ago. The only difference is that the GOP voters are now voting FOR McCain rather than against Obama. But you cannot point to one shred of polling evidence that suggests that McCain has made inroads with the "undecideds" or "independents."

Actually, Obama's campaign stabilized dramatically when he went on vacation and shut up. Since then, McCain hasn't been able to make a lot of headway, suggesting that the campaign is still about Obama, and whether or not people think he's experienced enough to lead.

[Cedric]

Okay, now you listen here, buddy, don’t try to refute my infallible opinions with your factual evidence!

[Cedric]

Seriously, I think several {Greek} pillars of The One's campaign are indeed, teetering.

Post Racial Messiah

Post Partisan Uniter

Above The Fray

Agent Of Change

Gifted Intellectual

Remember this time-tested strategy: Punch holes in the boat, below the water line. The damage, at first, is not apparent.

[LadyNavyVet]

“...but he still had Obama overpolling in the New Hampshire primary by 10 just like everyone else.”

He did not. Neither did most pollsters.

Rasmussen predicted Obama to win 37% of the NH primary vote. He won 36.4%. Of the seven pollsters who polled NH immediately before the primary, 4 were within a point of two of Obama’s final number.

Hillary won the undecideds in NH. Obama did not underperform his polling, she overperformed hers. In NH. One state. Her campaign made much of it because it was a surprise and they hoped it would be a game-changer, but there is much mythology surrounding that primary that is simply not true, and most of it came from Carville, Wolfson and McAuliffe. Freepers who ordinarily would be very wary of any spin coming from the Clintonistas have bought into the myth of NH, hook, line and sinker.

Some other facts: Obama outperformed his polling in more primary states than did Hillary, and he won undecideds in more states. This, despite Operation Chaos.

[paul544]

It is not unchanged. The lead has gone from 4 points to 1 point since yesterday. The link has the daily numbers. He was behind 5 points on Wednesday. The poll is basically tied now. This is a good sign for McCain.

This was my understanding as well. I don't recall it being 1 pt yesterday.

[CaliforniaCon]

After all the insanity is over, and pollsters have finished with their shenanigans, and votes are counted (hopefully REAL votes, not from pets or the dead), we will find out who wins this thing.

So many considerations this election — the Bradley factor, the woman thing, PUMAs, lots to chew on here.

I don’t trust the polls too much, especially this year.

[LS]

LOL. I know, it's hard. I learned in 2006 we're better off confronting reality than denying it.

As Rush says, we never know what will happen (within reason). And with a 55-vote senate, McCain still has a cushion of a few votes to keep the filibuster in place. And in the House, honestly, who the heck cares if it's a one-vote majority or a 100 vote majority? I think we found that out in the 1990s too.

I know people are excited about Palin. Me too. She's the best thing to hit politics in 15 years. But Reagan came at the right time---the country was ready for CONSERVATIVE change, not just "change." In two years, maybe that will be the case again. For now, I hope she learns the national ropes so that she'll be ready for the top spot when the time comes.

[jwalsh07]

I think any analysis would conclude that the poll numbers are local max’s for Obama/Biden and local min’s for McCain/Palin because of the modelling. They are both sampling at about 40% dem, 31&% Pubbie based on BDS, Bush Derangement Syndrome. McCain/Palin will transcend BDS and the generic numbers in their race will approach 2004. JMHO of course.