Posted on 09/07/2008 8:37:37 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Ike is the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2008 hurricane season to threaten U.S. Gulf Coast states.
Reports from Turks & Caicos Islands describe 80 per cent of homes damaged or destroyed. On Sunday, Hurricane Ike's position just north of Hispanola was hampering relief efforts for devastation incurred by Hurricane Gustav and Tropical Storm Fay. The death toll in Haiti from Gustav reached 200 people.
Florida Governor Charlie Crist held a press conference Sunday morning shortly after a Hurricane Watch was issued for the Florida Keys.
Public Advisory Updated every 3 hours
Discussion Updated every 6 hours
Buoy data:
Florida & Eastern Gulf of Mexico
Western Gulf of Mexico
West Caribbean
South FL Radar Loop
FL Keys Radar Loop
Cuba Radar Warning: site gets overloaded
FL Long Range Radar Image
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Additional Resources:
Navy Tropical Cyclone
Storm Pulse Very cool site--scroll down for Ike
KeyNews.com Key West News
Miami Herald
NOLA.com
KPLC-tv Lake Charles News
WEAR-tv Pensacola FL
TBO.com Tampa Bay Online
KHOU Houston
WKRG-tv Mobile-Pensacola
| Category | Wind Speed | Barometric Pressure | Storm Surge | Damage Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical Depression |
< 39 mph < 34 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Tropical Storm |
39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts |
Minimal | ||
| Hurricane 1 (Weak) |
74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts |
28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more |
4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m |
Minimal damage to vegetation |
| Hurricane 2 (Moderate) |
96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts |
28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb |
6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m |
Moderate damage to houses |
| Hurricane 3 (Strong) |
111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts |
27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb |
9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m |
Extensive damage to small buildings |
| Hurricane 4 (Very strong) |
131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts |
27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb |
13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m |
Extreme structural damage |
| Hurricane 5 (Devastating) |
Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts |
Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb |
Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m |
Catastrophic building failures possible |
Dear God, not again! Well, I will leave my suitcases packed, already have my important papers and things all together and am prepared to leave if it heads this way again. I feel for the people that live on those small islands, don’t know how they live through these things year after year.
WOW... we sure hopped on you pretty hard there, didn’t we, FlyVet! Sorry - I’m sure each of us didn’t see the other’s post - or we wouldn’t have jumped - I know I wouldn’t have! I’ll bet you got the message, though, lol...
My sister is a nurse - takes classes into Haiti every year - it is a constant disaster. It has to be true that a major part of that is the annual hurricane season.
;o)
I just reviewed the historical tracks that are up now. It is now apparent that Ike is even more in a class almost of it’s own.
From this location, every previous hurricane has been tracking WNW or more northerly than that. One(1888) overcame that and started going W, even WSW - eventually hitting the Yucatan. One(1926) ended up staying NW and going into MS/AL. Most of the rest went up through FL... but that’s not surprising since that is the direction they were already headed.
You’re reading my mind!
That’s what I’ve been examining the last 20 minutes!
I wouldn’t be surprised if Ike went father south. We here in Texas, have been under a dome of high pressure most of the summer.
The Texas gulf coast is way overdue for a major storm.
Yesterday (day before?), I showed how it takes IKE down to 44MPH (4 days from now). It has not changed its mind:
07Sep08 12Z run
now 24 48 72 96 120 (hours from now)
132 98 50 45 36 26 (predicted mph)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
The “technical summary chart” of NHC still has very strong praise for SHIPS’ intensity predictions. Something isn't clicking for me right now. I was guessing that SHIPS was looking at historical tracks and going from there to intensity predictions, inspired by the tracks shown in a post above. That is NOT at all what it does- it is a tuned multiple regression model. “The predictors for SHIPS include climatology and persistence, atmospheric environmental parameters (e.g., vertical shear, stability, etc.), and oceanic input such as sea surface temperature (SST) and upper-oceanic heat content.” (... much more)
For some reason, SHIPS believes this sucker is going to really get degraded over the next two days.
I would really love it if someone seeing this could give me any explanation that this well respected intensity model is giving such a different solution!
I sure would love to see SHIPS predictions come true, because really, Ike scares me. It probably won't... but why is it so out of line?
Here we are
Ben Nelson, Floridas state meteorologist, said this is a very complicated situation to forecast. I have heard that hurricanes cool the water. Gustav just went through these waters. Perhaps SHIPS is taking that into account?
Hey, not a problem at all. I didn’t take offense. You are of course correct. I’m just looking at the most probable path. A few days ago it looked headed right at N.O. and now it appears veering to the west. Nobody really knows where it will hit...yet.
I was talking about post #466 here on this thread.
Petronski Says: "A Tropical Storm In Britain?"
Missing the obvious? 24 hours w/ core over or near Cuba land mass?
I was talking about post #466 here on this thread.
Petronski Says: "A Tropical Storm In Britain?"
Baton Rouge pic
I’m not missing that it is going over Cuba.
Other models have it going over Cuba, too, and none are downgrading nearly the way SHIPS is. SHIPS has been alone this week, as far as I know, in its persistent calling for downgrading Ike to a tropical depression.
Wow! Is that today?
I don’t know how many times the NHC has stated NOT to put any weight in the models they use. Models are often wrong, pay attention to thier forecast. Not the models! And I don’t recall a NHC forecasting a Fla hit for Ike.
This predicted nearly full east to west transit of Cuba is unprecedented and it is unlikely that any model deals with the situation adequately. The unusual thing for the models is that the island is narrow, so the core would be over land while the mid and outer bands still charged by warm water. There is plenty of uncertainty over what percentage of the total length of Cuba will be transited and how long the core is exposed to the hot waters south of western Cuba. I’m tending to go with the intuitive forecasts of experienced met professionals, and they seem to think anywhere from a TS to a cat 2 is possible.
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