Skip to comments.Dead Heat: John McCain, Barack Obama Even in Post-Convention Poll [ABC/WaPo Shocker]
Posted on 09/08/2008 3:01:59 PM PDT by Zakeet
White Women Shift to McCain as Republican Erodes Obama Lead on Change, Enthusiasm
John McCain's taken the better boost from the presidential nominating conventions, eroding Barack Obama's advantage on change, improving on enthusiasm, moving away from George W. Bush -- and advancing among white women with help from his surprise vice presidential pick.
Some of McCain's biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which "hockey mom" Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty-seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCain's decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain's advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he's moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.
Obama, for his part, shows little or no progress on his chief challenges -- the question of his experience, the definition of the change he'd bring about and his efforts to entice former Hillary Clinton supporters aboard. Obama continues to lead McCain by a wide margin in enthusiasm, but his advantage on some key issues has softened.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
More good material in the original article.
Today’s headlines “Dead Heat”
Soon they will be: “Dead Meat”
Uh huh. And no information on the Dem/Ind/Rep split...
This polling sample is 50% Democrats, 41% Republicans!
NET LEANED PARTY:
Democrat Republican Independent Other No op.
9/7/08 RV 50 41 7 1 1
ABC must have felt it was important to camouflage those numbers for some reason.
“””””White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.””””””
A 20 point shift among white women is huge!!!!!!!!
Rasmussen battlegrounds are out.
ABC kind of buried the fact that McCain was actually up 2 points, not tied.
That was also the radio lead off I heard tonight coming home.
A “scant” 4 point gain for McCain.
All trends are favorable. And Huge.
I wonder if any of those were typical white women?
All this...and the poll shows the race as only even? What, did they exclude Republicans from the poll?
In all seriousness, if you go read the actual write-up of the poll, it reveals that this is registered voters. It says in the fine print that McCain has a two point lead among likely voters — yet further reinforcing my suspicion that the polling sample is over-infested with Rat voters.
There are more registered Dems than Reps nation wide. That is why the polling numbers differ.
Kim Gandy must be slashing her wrists over this...
Now if we could only see some drift in the Congressional polls. Push the Dems on drilling and let’s see what happens.
Hmm...someone else noticed that too. But there is no way that McCain is leading by such margins among white women, Catholics, and Independents and not also be leading among likely voters by more than 2 points (that's what the fine print says in this poll -- 2 points). I don't know that he is leading among likely voters by 10 points, but some of the post-convention polling in places like Michigan suggest that he has a real lead right now of at least 5 points nationally.
Okay, I take back what I said except that my suspicion was correct: it’s a Rat infested poll all right: 50% Democrats, only 41% Republicans. Any poll at this point where the spread is more than 4-6 points (and shrinking fast) should be treated as highly suspect.
Link to the Rasmussen battlegrounds? I heard they were coming out at 6pm today.
jveritas, I am beginning to believe that you are either a prophet or the son of a prophet. You were way, way, out in front of virtually everyone on the surge. And, you called this sooner than anyone else I have read. Take a bow!
With McCain with a large lead in white women, white catholics and white independents, where exactly is Obama managing to get the numbers to come up with a tie? Are we to believe that all of the sudden white men prefer him?
What is going on?