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Dead Heat: John McCain, Barack Obama Even in Post-Convention Poll [ABC/WaPo Shocker]
ABC News ^ | September 8, 2008 | Gary Langer

Posted on 09/08/2008 3:01:59 PM PDT by Zakeet

White Women Shift to McCain as Republican Erodes Obama Lead on Change, Enthusiasm

John McCain's taken the better boost from the presidential nominating conventions, eroding Barack Obama's advantage on change, improving on enthusiasm, moving away from George W. Bush -- and advancing among white women with help from his surprise vice presidential pick.

Some of McCain's biggest gains in this ABC News/Washington Post poll are among white women, a group to which "hockey mom" Sarah Palin has notable appeal: Sixty-seven percent view her favorably and 58 percent say her selection makes them more confident in McCain's decision-making. Among those with children, Palin does better yet. And enthusiasm for McCain among his female supporters has soared.

White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences. The other, also to McCain's advantage, is in the battleground Midwest, where he's moved from a 19-point deficit to a 7-point edge.

Obama, for his part, shows little or no progress on his chief challenges -- the question of his experience, the definition of the change he'd bring about and his efforts to entice former Hillary Clinton supporters aboard. Obama continues to lead McCain by a wide margin in enthusiasm, but his advantage on some key issues has softened.

(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2008election; 2008polls; 2008rncconvention; bounce; electionpresident; mccain; mccainpalin; polls
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Mark Halperin (Time Magazine) summarizes the results HERE. Among other things:

More good material in the original article.

1 posted on 09/08/2008 3:01:59 PM PDT by Zakeet
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To: Zakeet
My guess it will get worse for the Dems.


2 posted on 09/08/2008 3:04:01 PM PDT by Perdogg (Maverick - Barracuda 2008)
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To: Zakeet

Today’s headlines “Dead Heat”

Soon they will be: “Dead Meat”


3 posted on 09/08/2008 3:04:53 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: Zakeet
METHODOLOGY: This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 211 black respondents. Results among the 961 registered voters have a 3-point error margin.

Uh huh. And no information on the Dem/Ind/Rep split...

4 posted on 09/08/2008 3:05:30 PM PDT by Interesting Times (Swiftboating, you say? Check out ToSetTheRecordStraight.com)
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To: Zakeet

This polling sample is 50% Democrats, 41% Republicans!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/documents/postpoll_090808.html?hpid=topnews

NET LEANED PARTY:

Democrat Republican Independent Other No op.
9/7/08 RV 50 41 7 1 1


5 posted on 09/08/2008 3:05:44 PM PDT by Chet 99 (http://www.mccainpalinvictory2008.com/)
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To: Zakeet
Took a while to find that the actual numbers are McCain 49, Obambi 47.

ABC must have felt it was important to camouflage those numbers for some reason.

6 posted on 09/08/2008 3:05:52 PM PDT by comebacknewt
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To: Zakeet

“””””White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama’s favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that’s one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.””””””

A 20 point shift among white women is huge!!!!!!!!


7 posted on 09/08/2008 3:06:17 PM PDT by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: Zakeet

Rasmussen battlegrounds are out.


8 posted on 09/08/2008 3:06:51 PM PDT by Norman Bates (Freepmail me to be part of the McCain List!)
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To: comebacknewt

ABC kind of buried the fact that McCain was actually up 2 points, not tied.

That was also the radio lead off I heard tonight coming home.

A “scant” 4 point gain for McCain.

All trends are favorable. And Huge.


9 posted on 09/08/2008 3:08:39 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: Presbyterian Reporter

I wonder if any of those were typical white women?


10 posted on 09/08/2008 3:09:00 PM PDT by Question Liberal Authority (Jesse Jackson talks about neutering Obama, but Sarah Palin actually delivers.)
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To: Zakeet

All this...and the poll shows the race as only even? What, did they exclude Republicans from the poll?

In all seriousness, if you go read the actual write-up of the poll, it reveals that this is registered voters. It says in the fine print that McCain has a two point lead among likely voters — yet further reinforcing my suspicion that the polling sample is over-infested with Rat voters.


11 posted on 09/08/2008 3:09:11 PM PDT by kesg
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To: kesg

There are more registered Dems than Reps nation wide. That is why the polling numbers differ.


12 posted on 09/08/2008 3:11:41 PM PDT by mcjordansc
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To: Zakeet

13 posted on 09/08/2008 3:12:39 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (Democrats are Intimidated by Strong Women.)
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To: Zakeet
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.

Kim Gandy must be slashing her wrists over this...

14 posted on 09/08/2008 3:12:50 PM PDT by Tallguy ("The sh- t's chess, it ain't checkers!" -- Alonzo (Denzel Washington) in "Training Day")
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To: Zakeet

Now if we could only see some drift in the Congressional polls. Push the Dems on drilling and let’s see what happens.


15 posted on 09/08/2008 3:13:43 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Interesting Times
Uh huh. And no information on the Dem/Ind/Rep split...

Hmm...someone else noticed that too. But there is no way that McCain is leading by such margins among white women, Catholics, and Independents and not also be leading among likely voters by more than 2 points (that's what the fine print says in this poll -- 2 points). I don't know that he is leading among likely voters by 10 points, but some of the post-convention polling in places like Michigan suggest that he has a real lead right now of at least 5 points nationally.

16 posted on 09/08/2008 3:14:49 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Chet 99

Okay, I take back what I said except that my suspicion was correct: it’s a Rat infested poll all right: 50% Democrats, only 41% Republicans. Any poll at this point where the spread is more than 4-6 points (and shrinking fast) should be treated as highly suspect.


17 posted on 09/08/2008 3:16:30 PM PDT by kesg
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To: kesg

Link to the Rasmussen battlegrounds? I heard they were coming out at 6pm today.

Thanks...


18 posted on 09/08/2008 3:18:38 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: jveritas
White women have moved from 50-42 percent in Obama's favor before the conventions to 53-41 percent for McCain now, a 20-point shift in the margin that's one of the single biggest post-convention changes in voter preferences.

jveritas, I am beginning to believe that you are either a prophet or the son of a prophet. You were way, way, out in front of virtually everyone on the surge. And, you called this sooner than anyone else I have read. Take a bow!

19 posted on 09/08/2008 3:18:51 PM PDT by Tennessean4Bush (An optimist believes we live in the best of all possible worlds. A pessimist fears this is true.)
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To: Zakeet

With McCain with a large lead in white women, white catholics and white independents, where exactly is Obama managing to get the numbers to come up with a tie? Are we to believe that all of the sudden white men prefer him?

What is going on?


20 posted on 09/08/2008 3:18:56 PM PDT by Truth is a Weapon (Truth, it hurts soooo good!)
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To: kesg

With the closing of the ‘enthusiasm gap’, you’re right.


21 posted on 09/08/2008 3:19:19 PM PDT by Chet 99 (http://www.mccainpalinvictory2008.com/)
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To: Zakeet
Registered voter poll. Buried in the article is that McCain leads among likely voters.
22 posted on 09/08/2008 3:19:52 PM PDT by colorado tanker ("I just LOVE clinging to my guns and my religion!!!!" - Sarah Palin)
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To: mcjordansc
There are more registered Dems than Reps nation wide. That is why the polling numbers differ.

To quote a stunningly perfect VP candidate, as if I didn't already know that. But the gap isn't 50D,41R, either. It might have been a few months ago, but not today. And it is never that high (or going to be that high) in a Presidential election year.

The fine print (the ABC write-up) admits that it oversampled black voters and then tried to adjust. Draw your own conclusions from that.

23 posted on 09/08/2008 3:20:46 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Perdogg

I sent the link to Drudge this morning- everyone should- though I don’t think he’ll touch it.


24 posted on 09/08/2008 3:21:05 PM PDT by SE Mom (Proud mom of an Iraq war combat vet-McCain/Palin 08)
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Isn’t this GAME OVER with all the leads mcCain has over all these groups?


25 posted on 09/08/2008 3:21:55 PM PDT by KavMan
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To: gswilder

I havent’ seen anything yet.


26 posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:24 PM PDT by kesg
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To: colorado tanker

I can see some of the battlegrounds updated on RCP to show Rasmussen.

Ohio - McCain +7 (wow)
PA - Obama +2 (looking good)
CO - Obama +3 (ouch)
FL - Tie

Overall a mixed bag. But states do lag.


27 posted on 09/08/2008 3:22:47 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: Zakeet

I don’t know what I’m savoring most, McCain/Pa;in’s rise in the polls or the discomfort displayed by the media kool-aid drinkers.


28 posted on 09/08/2008 3:23:42 PM PDT by 2nd Amendment
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To: Zakeet

I hope Kim Gandy is on suicide watch.


29 posted on 09/08/2008 3:24:03 PM PDT by rabidralph (She shoots, she scores!)
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To: Presbyterian Reporter

I noticed at the Lee’s Summit rally today—A LOT of women with children and A LOT of young professional women!!

These are crawl over broken glass votes for McCain-Palin. Count on it!


30 posted on 09/08/2008 3:24:51 PM PDT by KansasGirl (Go Governor Palin Go!!!! We need a conservative woman to straighten out DC!!)
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To: kesg

Do they weight for party affiliation?


31 posted on 09/08/2008 3:26:43 PM PDT by ajwharton
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To: Brilliant

We need to get people to realize that we can’t pass drilling legislation without a republican congress.


32 posted on 09/08/2008 3:26:45 PM PDT by rabidralph (She shoots, she scores!)
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To: gswilder
Yes, the states aren't polled as frequently and it can take a while for trends to show up in them.

I don't know why, but the public polls here tend to understate Republican support. Six years ago the public polls all put Strickland ahead of Allard, who won. It turned out after the election Allard's internals showed him with a lead about as large as the ultimate vote.

33 posted on 09/08/2008 3:27:45 PM PDT by colorado tanker ("I just LOVE clinging to my guns and my religion!!!!" - Sarah Palin)
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To: Chet 99

The sample was 36D 28R 32I.
Then they got pushed to one party or the other.

However, this was interesting.

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults and 961 registered voters, including additional interviews with randomly selected African Americans, for a total of 211 black respondents. The additional interviews (commonly referred to as an “oversample”) were completed to ensure there were enough African American respondents for separate analysis;


34 posted on 09/08/2008 3:28:41 PM PDT by ConservativeGreek
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To: Chet 99

The sample was 36D 28R 32I.
Then they got pushed to one party or the other.

However, this was interesting.

This Washington Post-ABC News poll was conducted by telephone September 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults and 961 registered voters, including additional interviews with randomly selected African Americans, for a total of 211 black respondents. The additional interviews (commonly referred to as an “oversample”) were completed to ensure there were enough African American respondents for separate analysis;


35 posted on 09/08/2008 3:29:59 PM PDT by ConservativeGreek
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To: KavMan

No, we cannot get cocky, they haven’t even begun with the nukes.


36 posted on 09/08/2008 3:30:06 PM PDT by Perdogg (Maverick - Barracuda 2008)
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To: Perdogg

That is vile.

There is nothing so filled with unrestrained, ugly hatred like the left in this country. Not to mention hypocrisy; if someone did something like this about a democrat there would be wailing in the streets by every social whiner group and...community organizer...out there.


37 posted on 09/08/2008 3:31:06 PM PDT by LostInBayport (John McCain is the Luckiest Man Alive...mere mortals such as we can only wonder why...)
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To: All

More good news from the Washington Post write-up. Highlights include:

More material in the Washington Post article.
38 posted on 09/08/2008 3:32:20 PM PDT by Zakeet (Crime wouldn't pay if the government ran it)
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To: gswilder

These numbers don’t make much sense, unless Rasmussen is applying different party identification weights for each state. There is no way that McCain is surging nationally and in places like Ohio and Pennsylvania while not surging even more in places like Colorado and Florida. If McCain is really up 7 in Ohio and down by only 2 in Pennnsylvania, I would expect him to be up 7-8 in Colorado and up 10 or more in Florida.

Let me explain it this way. Ohio is pretty much at the national average (trending ever so slightly Democratic) in the last two Presidential elections. Florida, by contrast, is trending fairly strongly Republican athough it is still properly classifed as a light red state. Colorado is trending more Democratic, but is still more Republican than the nation as a whole. So, with what know to be a McCain poll surge the last few days (even in Rasmussen), I would expect to see all four polls moving in the same direction. And I would expect to see McCain leading in Florida and Colorado by bigger margins than he is leading in Ohio.


39 posted on 09/08/2008 3:40:16 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Zakeet

20 point swing among the white women demographic is absolutely HUGE.

Can you say PUMA’s?

WOW.

Sometimes the internals can be more telling than the top line numbers.


40 posted on 09/08/2008 3:41:16 PM PDT by gswilder
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To: ConservativeGreek
The sample was 36D 28R 32I.

Someone else said it was 50D, 41R. Doesn't matter. While 36D sounds about right, 28R is too low. It should be at least 31 or 32R. This poll still has too many Democrats relative to Republicans to be a genuinely representative sample of the electorate.

41 posted on 09/08/2008 3:44:20 PM PDT by kesg
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To: Truth is a Weapon

Oversampling of blacks per the poll to conform to the national weighted average.


42 posted on 09/08/2008 3:50:09 PM PDT by kabar (.)
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To: gswilder

We need to keep reminding the residents of Colorado that Obama will impose a Windfall Profits Tax on oil.

As an oil producing state, Colorado should be very afraid of a Windfall Profits Tax.

A Windfall Profits Tax is nothing more than a wealth transfer from oil producing states to the residents of New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, and other Northeast states.


43 posted on 09/08/2008 3:51:24 PM PDT by Presbyterian Reporter
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To: Perdogg

And the debates will be crucial. These polls are encouraging for McCain, but we have a very long way to go.


44 posted on 09/08/2008 3:52:42 PM PDT by kabar (.)
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To: Zakeet

With the huge margins favoring mccain/PALIN, I wondered why they were showing even, until I saw the following at the bottom of page 4.

“METHODOLOGY: This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Sept. 5-7, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,133 adults, including an oversample of African Americans (weighted to their correct share of the national population), for a total of 211 black respondents. Results among the 961 registered voters have a 3-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.”

Since when are African Americans 19% of the population? I thought the number was closer to 12%, especially with the current invasion we’re experiencing?


45 posted on 09/08/2008 3:55:26 PM PDT by johncocktoasten (Obama/Biden '08, in and of itself, A Bridge To Nowhere)
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To: kesg
Let me explain it this way. Ohio is pretty much at the national average (trending ever so slightly Democratic) in the last two Presidential elections. Florida, by contrast, is trending fairly strongly Republican athough it is still properly classifed as a light red state. Colorado is trending more Democratic, but is still more Republican than the nation as a whole. So, with what know to be a McCain poll surge the last few days (even in Rasmussen), I would expect to see all four polls moving in the same direction. And I would expect to see McCain leading in Florida and Colorado by bigger margins than he is leading in Ohio.

I made a similar comment on another thread. One explanation for these results may be statewide demographics. FLA and CO do not have the same union, Reagan Dem. population as OH, MI, and WI. The later three states show McCain doing much better than I would expect. FLA and CO, somewhat worse.

Another possible explanation for the weird swings in female and catholic vote that aren't show up in the electoral college is that McCain has swung a lot of non-union voters in hopeless states like CA and NY but not in battleground states like FLA and CO.

All in all, a thoroughly odd year with some really weird numbers.Because if McCain is +7 in Ohio, the entire country should be going red. And it isn't, . . . yet.

46 posted on 09/08/2008 3:55:28 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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To: Jeff Chandler
Can you imagine what would happen if someone tried to release that movie today?
47 posted on 09/08/2008 3:56:00 PM PDT by El Sordo
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To: kesg

This poll still has too many Democrats relative to Republicans

I would agree.
But that’s really good news. If a third of the voters on November 4 are Republicans McCain will win by 5 points.
Thats a landslide.


48 posted on 09/08/2008 4:00:48 PM PDT by ConservativeGreek
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To: ModelBreaker
Because if McCain is +7 in Ohio, the entire country should be going red. And it isn't, . . . yet.

Let me put it this way. If McCain is really up 7 in Ohio, then he should also be winning in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey (yes, New Jersey), and Oregon. Washington would be a toss-up and California would be very light blue. Every state that Dubya won four years ago would be even redder (okay, Iowa may be a special case -- it's likely going for Obama because the entire state is addicted to ethanol and McCain rightly opposes further ethanol subsidies). Florida would be way out of reach, with Colorado close behind.

If Rasmussen's national numbers are right (and even he says that he may soon need to adjust his weights by party identification to reflect a closing of the Democratic advantage in recent weeks), then I would expect Ohio to be a toss-up, McCain to have small leads in Florida and Colorado, and to trail in Pennsylvania by more than 2 points (that state trends about 3-4 points more Democratic than the national average).

I will grant you that having Palin on the ticket may be worth a point or two in places like Pennsylvania and Ohio, where Obama performed very poorly in the Democratic primaries. And in Michigan, home of legions of hockey moms and clueless Red Wing fans....but I digress.

49 posted on 09/08/2008 4:16:09 PM PDT by kesg
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To: kesg
Let me put it this way. If McCain is really up 7 in Ohio, then he should also be winning in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Jersey (yes, New Jersey), and Oregon. Washington would be a toss-up and California would be very light blue. Every state that Dubya won four years ago would be even redder (okay, Iowa may be a special case -- it's likely going for Obama because the entire state is addicted to ethanol and McCain rightly opposes further ethanol subsidies). Florida would be way out of reach, with Colorado close behind. I'm with you completely for a normal year. So either the polls are grotesquely off. Or this will be a paradigm shift election. The ground feels like it's moving beneath our feet. Not necessarily in a good direction.
50 posted on 09/08/2008 4:31:00 PM PDT by ModelBreaker
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