Fox News poll: McCain leads by three, gains 16 points among independents since last month

hotair.com ^ | September 10, 2008 | Allahpundit

[Free ThinkerNY]

Obama hasn’t lost ground since last month — he was at 42 then and he’s at 42 now — but McCain’s gained six points since, thanks mainly to that surge among indies. If the CW is right and independents are currently overrepresented by conservatives disgruntled with the GOP but sympathetic to its principles, then the convention was a huge success in drawing them back. Current favorable ratings among indies: McCain 67/21, Palin 55/25, Obama 50/39. 40 percent of them say they’re more likely to vote for McCain after the Palin pick versus 31 who say less, again suggesting a rightward tilt. Note the lines here, too, especially on the experience question:

[Question Liberal Authority]

From the Fox News poll:

"Of the four candidates, almost half (48 percent) say McCain has the most compelling personal story — twice as many as say the same of Obama (24 percent). Some 10 percent say Palin and 4 percent Biden."

So McCain + Palin get 58% of the "compelling narrative" while Obama + Biden get 28%. That is stunning. No wonder Obama wants to run on issues. He can't even run on his personal narrative anymore.

[Always Right]

I am of the opinion Pollsters are under representing the number of GOP voters. I think a lot more people consider themselves Republicans now than several months back, and pollsters have not adjusted their assumptions.

[dead]

The most stunning thing about that poll is that 4% of those surveyed believe Joe Biden has the most "compelling narrative".

I'm thinking that those people really just didn't know what "compelling narrative" means.

[soupcon]

If he gained 16% in the past month and is now up by 3%, he would have been down 13% last month. Sorry, I don’t remember that being the case.

[FredZarguna]

Fox News/Opinion Dynamics are more interesting for their internals than their conclusions. Their sampling methodology is horrendous and they generally poll leftward of the other pollsters as a result. Looking at the breakdowns by sample does give you some decent ideas, though.

[SampleMan]

If he gained 16% in the past month and is now up by 3%, he would have been down 13% last month. Sorry, I don’t remember that being the case.

That is just among self described independents.

[soupcon]

OK, sorry.

[Question Liberal Authority]

McCain gained 16 points among independents, not the whole electorate. He’s up 3 points among the whole electorate, not merely independents.

[E=MC2]

If he gained 16%

"but McCain’s gained six points since,"

[dangus]

It’s quite possible. Rasmussen is presuming that people haven’t changed party identification since the conventions, but comparing Gallup and local polls to the national results suggests that large numbers of people are calling themselves Republicans.

[Salvation]

Bump for McCain-Palin!