Skip to comments.SENATE 2008 PREDICTIONS- Sept 2008 [50 Days out]
Posted on 09/15/2008 4:39:55 PM PDT by RobFromGa
FROM NOV 2008 election, heres a list of the 35 Senate races. (including 33 regular and the MS & WY special elections)
The GOP is defending 23 seats, and the Dems defend 12.
THere are 65 Senate seats that are not up for election. The GOP starts with 26 carryover seats, and the Dems start with 39 (counting the 2 independents Lieberman-CT and Sanders-VT).
I was way TOO OPTIMISTIC in the 2006 Midterms, so I am trying to be less optimistic this time...
There are another 26 seats that appear SAFE, barring some major change of events over the next 50 days 15 for the GOP (incl the 2 special elections) and 12 for the Dems.
I look to get input from fellow Freepers in order to update this information.
I plan to put up a new thread on October 1 with the updates and information on the various Senate primaries. And then again on November 1.
There are 8 seats that appear to be in play...
SAFE GOP SEATS 
AL- (R= current seatholder)- Sessions safe
GA- R- Chambliss safe
ID- R- Risch (open-CRAIG seat) safe
KS- R- Roberts safe
KY- R- McConnell safe
ME- R- Collins safe
MS- R- Cochran safe
MS- R- Wicker (interim/special) safe
NE- R- Johanns (open-HAGEL seat) safe
OK- R- Inhofe safe
SC- R- Graham safe
TN- R- Alexander safe
TX- R- Cornyn safe
WY- R- Enzi safe
WY- R- Barasso (interim/special) safe
GOP: 15 safe + 26 carryovers = 41 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS 
AR-(D=current status)- Pryor safe
DE- D- Biden safe
IA- D- Harkin safe
IL- D- Durbin safe
LA- D- Landrieu safe
MA- D- Kerry safe
MI- D- Levin safe
MT- D- Baucus safe
NJ- D- Lautenberg safe
RI- D- Reed safe
SD- D- Johnson safe
WV- D- Rockefeller safe
DEMS: 12 safe + 39 carryovers = 51 minimum DEM
The EIGHT SENATE CONTESTS (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
ALL EIGHT of these are GOP seats, so the
[GOP CANDIDATE= all caps]
[% after = my estimate of % chance GOP win]
MN- R seat- COLEMAN vs. Franken (65%)
NC- R seat- DOLE vs. Hagan (60%)
OR- R seat- SMITH vs. Merkely (60%)
AK- R seat- STEVENS vs. Begich (35%) **PALIN EFFECT**
NH- R seat- SUNUNU vs. Shaheen (25%)
CO- R seat- SCHAFFER vs. Udall (35%)
NM- R seat- PEARCE vs. Udall (Domenici seat) (20%)
VA- R seat- Warner vs. GILMORE (10%) probably a lost cause
Our best chances to pickup seats: NONE
Our toughest seats to defend: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK
It looks like the Dems will pickup at least 5 as it stands right now, which would give them 57 counting the two independents...
The good news is that it appears almost certain (barring a 2006 level catastrophe) that the GOP will retain a filibuster-proof 41 votes
But you need to consider Snowe, Collins and Smith(OR) as potential wildcards in this filibuster calculation.
The GOP needs to hold the fort until 2010 when we will have a slightly more favorable situation. It is not until 2012 that we get a chance to recapture the 2006 lost seats...
There might be mistakes, I have checked it over and might have missed something..
I plan to put up a revised thread on October 1 with the updates and information on the various Senate races. And then again on November 1.
When it comes to Michigan [Canada’s newest provence], those of us in the out laying state dislike Levin so much, that we spit teeth when we hear his name. But like all of the state all he has to do is carry Detroit,Lansing,Flint, & Grand Rapids [or any of the other large cities in the state] that he is in for life. So therefore pretty much write off this state as far as the large gov’t races go.
“senate predictions 50 days out”
don’t forget to take into account voting machines owned by democrat thugs.
(but you wouldn’t be able to get close enough to find out.)
ALL EIGHT of these in-play Senate Races are currently GOP seats, so the GOP is completely on DEFENSE trying to hold their ground... VA appears to be a lost cause...
Thanks for doing this! Hopefully freepers from each of these states can update whats going on.
Not sure why you have Landrieu as safe. It is the GOP’s best pick up chance.
Virginia, unfortunately, is a no contest win for Warner. Not only does he share the same name as the popular and retiring chairman of the Armed Services Committee but he has the fortune of running against a George Bush clone in Gilmore.
Sadly, that's what elections have become.....the big cities dictate the outcome. Between ACORN and the multi-vote crowd for the Dem's, coupled with the big cities entitlements crowds and illegal immigrants, it's hard for Conservatives to win in too many places....
Ohio is similar to Michigan in that respect, where Cleveland, Toledo, Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton, and the major metro areas are packed with entitlements crowds and hard for the rest of the State to survive a vote against their sheer numbers of straight-Democrat (aka, socialism) support.
For what it is worth:
my initial review of your data appears to match my data.
What the hell is wrong with the GOP? They can’t put up a viable candidate against landrou in Louisiana or any other red state.
I think you’re being a little pessimistic on putting Louisiana in the safe Democratic column. I think the seat can be considered somewhat in play. If the GOP picks up a seat it’ll be there.
I would love to have Landrieu appear vulnerable, but I don’t see any indications anywhere at this late date...
Unless something has changed that I am unaware of, Landrieu has a big lead. She was up +17 in August over Kennedy. I could have put it as a 10% like Virginia, but I fear both are lost causes...
If you have other data that shows that there is even a race in LA, I’d love to see it and change my estimate...
I agree that it is the GOPs best chance at a pickup...
Sununu is shaping up badly. I think 25% is too optimistic. I’d say 15-20%.
Landrieu is NOT safe. We have at least a 40% chance of pickup.
The RINO leadership has failed to put up candidates in competitive and RED states in the Senate AND many Congressional districts. The RINOS conceded the House and Senate to the formidable and brilliant Pelosi and Reid and their stellar 9% approval rating. You don’t want to but heads with popularity like THAT.
The one time they nationalized the elections in 1994 they won a TSUNAMI. We have been given quotes from the DEMOCRATS that can win us back the House of Representatives THIS NOVEMBER. I can take those quotes and use Imovie to make commercials in an hour and win back the house....
No use crying over spilt RINO milk. Job 1, crush Øbama.
After he’s finished, it’s RINO hunting time and take back the Congress in 2010. We’ll all have to get involved to make it happen.
I’ll change Landrieu to a CONTEST in the next predictions...post any polls here if you see them please...
Still a shot the guy in CO can close the gap.
You are aware that the Minnesota race is a three way contest? With the independent Barkley regularly polling in double digits? That could throw a wrinkle into the race.
If you and I are in agreement, that might not be a great thing! (after 2006)... We were in good company though and a lot of the races were razor-thin...
Hope you are well.
Sadly, you are right about Turban Durbin. He is an incredible Anti-American hack politician, but we don’t have a Republican Party here in Illinois.
I wasn’t aware that Barkley was getting low teens...if you look at Intrade they have it 60/40 Coleman with no chance for Barkley to win.
The polls appear to have Franken stuck in the high thirties and Coleman in the low forties.
I think Palin is going to help the GOP candidate in MN, but I might be over-optimistic on this one. I honestly cannot see my brethren in MN electing Al Franken as Congressman. (and yes I know about Jesse the Body)...
What would you handicap Colemans’s chances as?
Ted Stevens is back, helped no doubt by the popularity of his states governor, Sarah Palin, now the high-profile running mate of Republican presidential candidate John McCain.
Stevens... now trails his Democratic opponent, Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, by just two percentage points 48% to 46%
also the disgrace Senator Warner won’t endorse Gilmore. Remember the disgrace Senator voted against impeachment of Clinton.
The reason that Gov. Palin is getting beat up over “Earmarks”...
I read someplace today that he used these spending requests (many of which were to continue funding ongoing projects) as “leverage” rather than simply include them in the normal appropriations spending package. Can anyone confirm this?
(I didn’t save the link...sorry!)
I think the projection is pretty much spot on. Unfortunately.
You need to list some outlier races, which are likely to hold but not assured of retention. Some examples:
GA- Saxby Chambliss is having some difficulty against ex-state Rep. Jim Martin, who ran a respectable campaign for Lt. Gov. in 2006. Chambliss leads by about 10-16 points.
KS- This was looking shaky for a while. Wealthy ex-Congressman Jim Slattery was within 9 points a few months back. Pat Roberts has regained the momentum, leads by about 15-20 points. He’ll probably win, but it’s not a sure thing.
KY- Mitch McConnell is in a tough contest against wealthy cable TV executive Bruce Lunsford, who ran for Governor in 1999. Lunsford was within 5 points for a while, McConnell is now ahead by 10-14 points. However, McConnell underpolled in 1990 and 1996.
LA- Mary Landrieu is being challenged by state Treasurer John Kennedy. It was almost even for a while, she’s pulling ahead, helped by heavy spending. She’s ahead by around 10-15. However, the Hurricane Ike evacuation complicates things for her.
NE- Ex-Gov. Mike Johanns is pulling away, and it’s more likely safe than not. His lead is about 15-25 points. His opponent, Scott Kleeb, ran for Congress in 2006 and polled much stronger than expected.
NJ- Frank Lautenberg should be safe against ex-Congerssman Richard Zimmer. But his age (84) has voters concerned, and he while he leads by about 10-18, he usually polls under 50%, never more than 52%.
TX- John Cornyn is having some difficulty against state Rep. Rick Noriega, who is polling strongly in Hispanic communities. Noriega is underfunded. In most polls, Cornyn leads by about 10-14, but often polls at around 50%.
These races could produce an upset or two. They’re not safe.
Thanks, especially since I called the midterm elections very well I’m glad to be back on this list.
Tennessee is going strongly for McCain, Alexender and my congressional district is going with Marsha Blackburn.
Wish I could help ya in other states like Virginia. I really hate to see her go Dim.
Got to agree with the others on LA — I read somewhere, that Kennedy was within 5 of Landreau.
The other one to watch is NM Pearce is closing fast on Udall. (went from 26 down to 7 down in one month). If McCain would carry NM Pearce is close enough to upset Udall.
Yah, 2006 was a very bad year for prognostications. I have, since then, learned to trust the polls.
If McCain wins and appoints Joe Lieberman to a Cabinet position, we should pick up another Senate seat. AFAIK, there is no requirement in CT that the replacement senator come from the same party as the departing senator. The GOP governor would presumably pick a Republican to replace him.
I had been under the impression that we would lose a GOP seat if McCain wins, but recently learned that under AZ law, his replacement would have to be a Republican.
I suppose Harry Reid et al could attempt to deny Joe confirmation, but that would require near unanimity among the RATS and I’m not sure that it could be pulled off.
Thanks for the ping!
Please notify me via FReepmail if you would like to be added to or taken off the Oregon Ping List.
Polls can be very informative, the key is knowing the methodology. As long as the methodology is sound the result should be fairly indicative.
I did a full analysis of the races on Saturday:
Landrieu is that far ahead? Damn. We could 2 cycles without gaining a rat seat? That’s pathetic.
Our trucon-socon faction in the NH GOP is small, but they've come around to the POV that they won't vote RINO. They can't elect one of their own to statewide office, they can beat any RINO, and this has created a very favorable environment for Democrats.
The GOP is breaking up into two minority factions. Each would rather see the other lose than beat most Democrats.
This means that when the RATs nominate a normal-appearing person (i.e., a stealth moonbat), they have a good chance in many places.
Of course, the RATs can't always help themselves, the moonbats all have "Be As You Are" bumper stickers, so occasionally you get a McGovern clone to run against.
In NH, the former RAT governor is wildly popular - when she was in office, she balanced the budget and kept her moonbats hidden away in agencies (where they did a lot of hidden damage).
But she looks normal, seems "nice", and our trucons-socons aren't buying the Sununu RINO Kool-Aid - so I have to bet this seat is lost.
In NH-1 CD, though, the incumbent RAT is a loud and proud moonbat, and I don't imagine she'll be going back. Our trucon-socons WILL come out to vote against her, even though her opponent (Jeb Bradley) has a fairly high RINO index.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.