Posted on 09/15/2008 4:39:55 PM PDT by RobFromGa
FROM NOV 2008 election, here’s a list of the 35 Senate races. (including 33 regular and the MS & WY special elections)
The GOP is defending 23 seats, and the Dems defend 12.
THere are 65 Senate seats that are not up for election. The GOP starts with 26 carryover seats, and the Dems start with 39 (counting the 2 “independents” Lieberman-CT and Sanders-VT).
I was way TOO OPTIMISTIC in the 2006 Midterms, so I am trying to be less optimistic this time...
There are another 26 seats that appear SAFE, barring some major change of events over the next 50 days— 15 for the GOP (incl the 2 special elections) and 12 for the Dems.
I look to get input from fellow Freepers in order to update this information.
I plan to put up a new thread on October 1 with the updates and information on the various Senate primaries. And then again on November 1.
There are 8 seats that appear to be in play...
SAFE GOP SEATS [15]
AL- (R= current seatholder)- Sessions safe
GA- R- Chambliss safe
ID- R- Risch (open-CRAIG seat) safe
KS- R- Roberts safe
KY- R- McConnell safe
ME- R- Collins safe
MS- R- Cochran safe
MS- R- Wicker (interim/special) safe
NE- R- Johanns (open-HAGEL seat) safe
OK- R- Inhofe safe
SC- R- Graham safe
TN- R- Alexander safe
TX- R- Cornyn safe
WY- R- Enzi safe
WY- R- Barasso (interim/special) safe
GOP: 15 safe + 26 carryovers = 41 minimum GOP
SAFE DEM/INDEPENDENT SEATS [12]
AR-(D=current status)- Pryor safe
DE- D- Biden safe
IA- D- Harkin safe
IL- D- Durbin safe
LA- D- Landrieu safe
MA- D- Kerry safe
MI- D- Levin safe
MT- D- Baucus safe
NJ- D- Lautenberg safe
RI- D- Reed safe
SD- D- Johnson safe
WV- D- Rockefeller safe
DEMS: 12 safe + 39 carryovers = 51 minimum DEM
The EIGHT SENATE “CONTESTS” (Ranked most likely GOP to least)
ALL EIGHT of these are GOP seats, so the
[GOP CANDIDATE= all caps]
[% after = my estimate of % chance GOP win]
MN- R seat- COLEMAN vs. Franken (65%)
NC- R seat- DOLE vs. Hagan (60%)
OR- R seat- SMITH vs. Merkely (60%)
AK- R seat- STEVENS vs. Begich (35%) **PALIN EFFECT**
NH- R seat- SUNUNU vs. Shaheen (25%)
CO- R seat- SCHAFFER vs. Udall (35%)
NM- R seat- PEARCE vs. Udall (Domenici seat) (20%)
VA- R seat- Warner vs. GILMORE (10%) probably a lost cause
Our best chances to pickup seats: NONE
Our toughest seats to defend: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK
It looks like the Dems will pickup at least 5 as it stands right now, which would give them 57 counting the two independents...
The good news is that it appears almost certain (barring a 2006 level catastrophe) that the GOP will retain a filibuster-proof 41 votes
But you need to consider Snowe, Collins and Smith(OR) as potential wildcards in this filibuster calculation.
The GOP needs to hold the fort until 2010 when we will have a slightly more favorable situation. It is not until 2012 that we get a chance to recapture the 2006 “lost seats”...
There might be mistakes, I have checked it over and might have missed something..
I plan to put up a revised thread on October 1 with the updates and information on the various Senate races. And then again on November 1.
When it comes to Michigan [Canada’s newest provence], those of us in the out laying state dislike Levin so much, that we spit teeth when we hear his name. But like all of the state all he has to do is carry Detroit,Lansing,Flint, & Grand Rapids [or any of the other large cities in the state] that he is in for life. So therefore pretty much write off this state as far as the large gov’t races go.
“senate predictions 50 days out”
don’t forget to take into account voting machines owned by democrat thugs.
(but you wouldn’t be able to get close enough to find out.)
IMHO
ALL EIGHT of these in-play Senate Races are currently GOP seats, so the GOP is completely on DEFENSE trying to hold their ground... VA appears to be a lost cause...
Thanks for doing this! Hopefully freepers from each of these states can update whats going on.
Not sure why you have Landrieu as safe. It is the GOP’s best pick up chance.
Virginia, unfortunately, is a no contest win for Warner. Not only does he share the same name as the popular and retiring chairman of the Armed Services Committee but he has the fortune of running against a George Bush clone in Gilmore.
Sadly, that's what elections have become.....the big cities dictate the outcome. Between ACORN and the multi-vote crowd for the Dem's, coupled with the big cities entitlements crowds and illegal immigrants, it's hard for Conservatives to win in too many places....
Ohio is similar to Michigan in that respect, where Cleveland, Toledo, Cincinnati, Columbus, Dayton, and the major metro areas are packed with entitlements crowds and hard for the rest of the State to survive a vote against their sheer numbers of straight-Democrat (aka, socialism) support.
For what it is worth:
my initial review of your data appears to match my data.
What the hell is wrong with the GOP? They can’t put up a viable candidate against landrou in Louisiana or any other red state.
I think you’re being a little pessimistic on putting Louisiana in the safe Democratic column. I think the seat can be considered somewhat in play. If the GOP picks up a seat it’ll be there.
I would love to have Landrieu appear vulnerable, but I don’t see any indications anywhere at this late date...
Unless something has changed that I am unaware of, Landrieu has a big lead. She was up +17 in August over Kennedy. I could have put it as a 10% like Virginia, but I fear both are lost causes...
If you have other data that shows that there is even a race in LA, I’d love to see it and change my estimate...
I agree that it is the GOPs best chance at a pickup...
Sununu is shaping up badly. I think 25% is too optimistic. I’d say 15-20%.
Landrieu is NOT safe. We have at least a 40% chance of pickup.
The RINO leadership has failed to put up candidates in competitive and RED states in the Senate AND many Congressional districts. The RINOS conceded the House and Senate to the formidable and brilliant Pelosi and Reid and their stellar 9% approval rating. You don’t want to but heads with popularity like THAT.
The one time they nationalized the elections in 1994 they won a TSUNAMI. We have been given quotes from the DEMOCRATS that can win us back the House of Representatives THIS NOVEMBER. I can take those quotes and use Imovie to make commercials in an hour and win back the house....
No use crying over spilt RINO milk. Job 1, crush Øbama.
After he’s finished, it’s RINO hunting time and take back the Congress in 2010. We’ll all have to get involved to make it happen.
Fair enough...
I’ll change Landrieu to a CONTEST in the next predictions...post any polls here if you see them please...
Still a shot the guy in CO can close the gap.
You are aware that the Minnesota race is a three way contest? With the independent Barkley regularly polling in double digits? That could throw a wrinkle into the race.
If you and I are in agreement, that might not be a great thing! (after 2006)... We were in good company though and a lot of the races were razor-thin...
SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- November 2006 Update
Hope you are well.
FRegards, Rob
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