Siena New York Poll: With 50 Days Left, New York Is Far From True Blue

Siena Research Institute ^ | September 15, 2008 | Steven Greenberg

[ricks_place]

Obama’s Lead Falls to 5 Points; Down From 18 Points in June Obama Seen As Stronger Than McCain on 4 of 6 Issues; Voters See McCain As Better Than Obama on 4 of 6 of Attributes

Loudonville, NY. Seven weeks until Election Day, the race for President has tightened in New York, with Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) leading Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 46-41 percent among likely voters, according to a new Siena (College) Research Institute poll released today. Obama’s five point lead is down from eight points in August, 13 points in July and 18 points in June, when he led 51-33 percent. On a series of six questions concerning current issues in the campaign – economy, Iraq, terrorism, health care, America’s position in the world, and education – likely voters believe Obama will do a better job on four. Conversely, out of six attributes voters often look at in choosing a candidate – compassion, patriotism, experience, intelligence, integrity, and leadership – New York’s electorate gives the edge to McCain on four.

[ricks_place]

NEW YORK STATE

If the 2008 presidential election were held today and the candidates were Barack Obama on the Democratic line and John McCain on the Republican line, who would you vote for? (CANDIDATE CHOICES WERE ROTATED)

 

Date	Obama	McCain	Don’t Know/No Opinion
September 2008	46	41	13
August 2008	47	39	14
July 2008	50	37	13
June 2008	51	33	17
May 2008	49	38	14
April 2008	45	40	15
February 2008	47	40	13
January 2008	44	42	15
June 2007	49	35	16
May 2007	50	33	18
April 2007	50	37	13
March 2007	47	39	14
November 15, 2006	39	40	21

[wrhssaxensemble]

great news but what really are the chances that McCain could keep going and carry NY? if he could pull that off then I think it would be safe to say it is over for Obama, especially given the recent trends in Pennsylvania and to a lesser extent Michigan

[Danae]

Obama has “peaked”. His numbers are on a downward trend. Enter Sarah Palin, they are going to try and destroy her as the “October Surprise”: Troopergate and the fact its being run by an Obama minion. That has GOT to be addressed.

[Clintonfatigued]

New York could go Republican this year?

[RoseofTexas]

I'm beginning to suspect that poll is a out liar trying to entice McPal to spend money and energy there. I remember when W was also polling well against sKerry in CA and he did put some money and time there only to have been blown away in Nov. I hope McPal doesn't fall for the deception and waste precious resources in places that in reality he doesn't have a chance.

[keepitreal]

Does Obama ignore recent polls in NY, hoping that in the end that they are aberrations and that NY is safe, or does he spend resources there? Kind of a big decision to have to make.

I’m sure NY won’t turn, but is it always in the back of the campaign’s mind that they should defend it?

[justiceseeker93]

New York could go Republican this year?

It could only do so if McCain wins by at least 10 points nationally.

[fso301]

Without New York City, the State of New York would be solidly Republican.

[wrhssaxensemble]

As odd as it sounds, I think it is great they are treating Palin so poorly. It just comes off as sexist and shows that the left isn’t actually for women’s rights; they are for the impostion of Marxism. I think the attacks actually help Palin

I have also been thinking lately that I really hope Obama keeps picking on McCain for not using a computer. Not only is it unclassy to make fun of a guy because he is physically unable to use his arms in the way necessary to type, but it ends up hurting the core voting group; Seniors

Although my grandfather and his friends are older (80’s) than McCain, none of them know a lot about computers either. I see these attacks on McCain because of his age as really an attack on them. And lest we forget, it is the older population who tends to vote, not the young college crowd (excluding people like me)

[metmom]

We can only pray.

Judging from what my college daughter has to say about the hillary/obama supporters and their disdain for each other....

And even some of the really liberal obama supporting kids my high school age daughter knows, are so impressed with Palin, that anything is possible.

In both cases, the liberal types are seriously talking voting Republican because of her.

[TornadoAlley3]

[BooyahPower]

If the media is trying to lure Mccain, they better be careful what they wish for, a Palin trip will only rally those that dont vote bc they feel thier votes dont count as well as attract ppl who get to see how wonderful and down to earth she is

[wrhssaxensemble]

“Without New York City, the State of New York would be solidly Republican.”

And without San Fransisco, LA and a few other cities, California would be as well.... damn cities

[wideawake]

McCain would never spend a red cent in New York.

Obama will win it.

However if Obama wins it by 5 or even 10 - as opposed to Gore winning it by 25 and Kerry winning it by 18 - that means that Obama has lost the election.

If New York is this close, I don't understand how Virginia can be a toss up.

It may well be an outlier, but it will never inspire McCain to waste money in New York the way Obama blew all that cash in Georgia.

[bigemmk]

Too much BDS here in NYC for NY to go GOP. I love my friends dearly, but they are so indoctrinated in dem talking points, they are convinced GOP/Conservatives are dumb and/or evil. Living here it's hard to imagine it going red. It would be nice to have my vote count for a change though.

[SERKIT]

In the stronghold state of Illinois, no one is watching Barry's decline in the polls. This may be a bellwether example of Barry's losses.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/il/08-il-pres-ge-mvo.php

The above poll has not been updated since the wave of Gov Palin came on strong. Barry may well be below 50% in Illinois, but no one is noticing.

If the Indies and disenchanted DEMS are switching sides and since both King Richard of Chicago and Gov Blow-Dry-o-Vich have been relatively kind to Gov Palin, I think Illinois could surprise people.

[Inyo-Mono]

Heck, I know more than a few people my age, I’m 58, who can’t use a computer either. And they are not slouches, they are business owners. They are too busy to spend time on-line.

[Bringbackthedraft]

New York could go Republican this year? ........................ Sure! NY isn’t the problem, NYC is. Buffalo and Syracuse are also problems. Upstate may be fed up with Hillary by now. They lost thousands of jobs and no big increase they can thank Hillary for. NY has gone republican in the past.

[TruthWillWin]

Hard to imagine McCain winning in NY but at least with these numbers it will force Obama to spend time and money in a state thought to be safe.

[perfect_rovian_storm]

If these are correct (and I have reason to believe they are), what I don’t get is how the national numbers can be so close.

If McCain is only down 5 in NY, he should be leading nationally by at least 10 points.