Posted on 09/16/2008 11:40:30 AM PDT by NYC Republican
Don’t worry about the national race, concentrate on the State races. I think McCain will win.
All the national polls point to a dead heat, but many of the blue state polls (WA, OR, NY, NJ) show Obama in an oddly close race.
Thanks, but how do we get our message past the despicable MSM filter and directly to the people?
I’m not troubled by national polls...I like to look more at the state polls.
Nationally, Obama had a bounce, McCain had a bounce, now we’re back to where we were in the national polls pre conventions, statistically dead even.
The debates will make or break the deal. All the other media swill goes in one ear and out the other of the average Joe. But when Americans tune in and watch for themselves, then you’ll see another shift in the national polls, hopefully toward McCain.
Campaign bounce and settle back down NYC.
Now it will be +/- the average and advertising and the Debates, no one really thought this would be a blow out, at least I hope no one did, this is a dogfight with a media that is openly hostile to Governor Palin.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
You want a realistic assessment of your posts. You have been a biaesed McCain and GOP critic since early summer and so i takr anything you write with a grain of salt.
YOu left one out concerning FR myths.
How about one or two polls = a trend?
How can one or two polls be disturbing?
McCain/Palin are moving up in many stae polls, which are more important than national polls and you see a troubling trend.
Please increase your meds.
I think it’s because McCain is acting like a jerk again, apologizing for being a Republican, it’s all Bush’s fault, instead of taking it to Obama and the libs. Look what Palin conservatism did for the situation...McCain and company are hard headed.
The Bradley effect, I'd like to see a recent demonstration of such a thing, and a reason to believe that this will work nation wide. I think that for every "Bradley Effected", there will be at least one "broken glass african American".
Polls, ah yes, we tend to favor the polls that favor us, its simply human nature. I think what you CAN get from them is the over all trend. That said, this is probably going to be a very close election, like the last two. I think the false bravado of freepers is either misplaced, or simply wishful thinking.
Bradley effect is real. Demonstrated in primaries. The issue isn’t black voters being too complacent, but white voters not wanting to admit to pollsters that they support a white candidate over a black one, for fear of being labeled racist. As the Dems are increasingly using the “If people don’t vote for Oama, it’s because they’re racist” line, the Bradley effect will expand.
As for the top-line numbers in polls, with McCain’s lead in the underlying demographics of independents and white women, why is his lead so small?
Also, “registered voter” polls do indeed inflate Democratic numbers, especially this time around when Obama’s people registered a whole lot of people who never intend to vote.
“Any thoughts would be welcome... Clearly, I’m feeling quite a bit of angst, “
Go out and do some work for the election instead of sitting around watching polls and using FR as group therapy for when you dont like the numbers.
This election will be a nail-biter and finally we are coming off of the honeymoon we all experienced from the fantastic pick of Gov Palin. Just remember in June and July we all didn't think we even had a chance; we are still able to win this one but it will be very very tight.
It is a electoral college battle from here on out. A few key states will tip this either way. Just know this: Team Obama is trying to defend some of its key states like Penn, Mich, and even Wisc. so we still have an advantage.
Also, the news cycle finally tipped a bit back to Obama yesterday but we can regain some ground I think during this next week. Palin and McCain must talk about economic plans in very specific terms from this point out.
Agree on points 1 and 2
Disagree on point 3.
What counts are the state-by-state polls. National polls are junk. And in a state-by-state set of polls, McCain is still losing in terms of electoral votes.
"Show me just what Mohammed brought that was new, and there you will find things only evil and inhuman, such as his command to spread by the sword the faith he preached." - Manuel II Palelologus
THIS is the important polling on RealClearPolitics.com
We are moving UP in most of the battleground states (+4 overall) THIS is what is most important and we are moving UP!!
Election 2008 Latest Polls
PresidentSenateHouseGovernorJob Approval/Misc.Tuesday, September 16
Race Poll Results Spread
Pennsylvania FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 47 Tie
Ohio FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 45 McCain +3
Florida FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 44 McCain +5
Virginia FOX News/Rasmussen McCain 48, Obama 48 Tie
Colorado FOX News/Rasmussen Obama 46, McCain 48 McCain +2
National Gallup Tracking McCain 47, Obama 46 McCain +1
National Hotline/FD Tracking McCain 42, Obama 46 Obama +4
National Rasmussen Tracking McCain 48, Obama 47 McCain +1
Ohio PPP (D) McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
New Jersey Monmouth/Gannett Obama 49, McCain 41 Obama +8
New Jersey Quinnipiac Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3
National Battleground* McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
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