Skip to comments.Poll: GOP brand making comeback (New PEW poll, 46-46 LV)
Posted on 09/18/2008 3:19:49 PM PDT by Chet 99
New polling suggests that the Republican Party is beginning to regain some of its luster and, perhaps as important, is experiencing a surge in excitement among its political base.
A new poll by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press reports that independent voters have an equally favorable opinion of both parties, 50 to 49 percent, a one-point edge for the GOP. That compares to an 18-point Democratic advantage as recently as August, a wide gap that had generally held for more than a year.
And half of registered voters overall now have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, the highest GOP ranking in three years. Slightly more voters, 55 percent, continue to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
The GOP convention and the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate have also generated considerable enthusiasm among the party rank-and-file. Pew found that three in four Republicans express satisfaction with their presidential choice. In June, only half said the same.
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Slightly more voters, 55 percent, continue to have a favorable view of the Democratic Party.
IDIOTS ALL!! unbelievable idiocy
If that’s the case, then perhaps it’s time for the pollsters to re-adjust their party weights...
Many pollsters are still giving the Dems an 8 to 10% advantage.
They usually only adjust everything in the last week before the election... That’s when we suddenly see a wave of voters breaking to one direction.
Wow ... that sounds like good news for McCain, and good news for House and Senate R’s up for reelection.
you’d think poor economy=better for democrats in the aggregate because all of the negative aspects of Obama have been filtered out.
I never bought into this “The Repubican Brand is damage” hooey. As far as media perception, it has always been damaged.
Goldwater was evil, Nixon was evil, Agnew was evil, Ford was stupid, Raegan was stupid, Bush 41 was stupid, Quayle was stupid, Newt was evil, Bush 43 was evil and stupid (a two-fer), Cheney was evil, John Roberts was stupid and now McCain and Palin are both stupid. Does that about sum up the media’s coverage of Republicans since 1968?
The brand has always been damaged and has always been harder to defend. But we have done it, successfully, many times. I just hate hearing our guys say the brand is damaged, then they are just buying into the media’s premise.
They have to be. You could tell by the look on pelosi’s face when she was trying to shift the blame onto republicans for the fainance mess. I’d say her days are numbered even if the pubs don’t take back control of the house. And Pinky reid. takes no explanation other than a good colonic every now and then.
IS FR being HACKED AGAIN?? I can’t connect the usual way and the other connection Freerepublic2 is hacked as well...WHAT’S GOING ON?
That’s awesome, but the poll was done Sept 9th - Sept 14th... Before the current down-trend for McCain... so, these numbers are somewhat stale... More like 50-44... which is still better than we were a month ago
Polls will blip up and down. Pew’s survey about what people think about the party and candidates is much more detailed than the daily horse race.
The Republican Party is strong enough to withstand everything the FCM (factually challenged media) and the Democrats have thrown at it. Suppose it started to govern effectively and do something about voter fraud.
Thank goodness for some good news after all the doom and gloom of the last week.
Unfortunately, this poll was completed 9/13, so the numbers are a little stale....
These maniacs are stuck in their own bubble, and have no clue what's going on in the heartland.
I haven't seen that yet. They could be overstating Dem representation by 10 percent in most cases.
i wish I could agree with you but I don't.
I think this poll just shows how fickle voters are.
Most of us aren't. I've been a solid, guaranteed Republican for the past 25 years.
But the generic ballot affiliation has turned ONLY because of Sarah Palin. One single decision by a Presidential nominee.
No people are not waking up and smelling the coffee. They are spending less time thinking about their political affiliation than the options they purchased on their new car.
That said, I hope they all vote Republican in November.
I do too, but I wish they offered "none of the above" on every choice, and if that were more than 50% we would be forced to have a redo with new candidates.
The GOP is experiencing a surge in excitement, while the DNC wallows in a surge in excrement.
Thanks for the ping!
You forgot that Donna "Butch" Brasile, Susan Sarandon and that idiot in Congress (I know, which one?) all had the spontaneous (snort) idea to remind us that 'Jesus was a community organizer, and Judas was a governor,' so Palin is evil, too. Though you never can tell with the dems' view of Christianity.
The bottom line is that unless one of the Bush states of Iowa, NM or CO come over to us, OR one of the Kerry states such as MI or PA, then we are going to lose.
Of course, it is also true from the Obama perspective that to win, they must main their current (slim) leads in Bush states Iowa, NM and CO...AND successfully hold onto MI, PA...as well as WI and MN.
Neither side at this stage can feel really great.
That said, when it is extremely close in a lot of states, that is when a two-point national advantage starts to mean something. That is where GWB was in 2004, and that is where Obama is today.
All in all, I think thinks don’t look great for McCain NOW. But the debates could change all that.
While there is merit to what you say, I think we are well positioned for a win. A 2-point spread 47 days out means nothing. Obama is going to find it very difficult to win Pennsylvania, for starters. He was soundly crushed in the dem primary, demonstrating severe weakness througout the state, and his “bitter” remarks are going to haunt him.
Thanks for the reply and I sure hope those remarks go remembered in PA come election day. Hopefully the McCain camp will help voters remember them well...
As for when a 2 point spread means something, though, I’m not so sure. Yes, it could switch at any moment. But did not GWB enjoy about a 1 or 2 point spread over Kerry from post-conventions through election day?
Certainly Carter enjoyed a lead over Reagan in 80 until near the end. So that certainly plays to your point.
I freely admit that my mood follows the polls. But unlike most other freepers I see that historically the polls are pretty doggone accurate.
Just a reminder ping. Good for when people claim that the Democrats will turn out in much stronger fashion than the Pubbies in three weeks.
Not so new. The article is dated Sept. 18.
I know. It was just a reminder ping.
Is this the same poll that has ZeroH up by 14?
That answers my quesion (post 32)... We CAN’T choose to believe this, and also discount the other poll that came out today, showing ZeroH up by 14.
The one and only. Pretty interesting how they delivered that bomb just as other polls tightened the RCP average considerably.
Pew is funded by the Annenberg Foundation by the by.
Jiminy Crickets, Democracy Corps (D) just came out with a poll today with O up by only 4, down 6 from the 10 point lead they spotted him a week ago.
I know polls are all over the place, but you’d think they’d at least be consistent in marking trends!
Here’s the substance of a FR mail that I just sent around to some people about the new Pew poll:
I had to wade through about 10-12 pages of stuff, but they did list the Party ID at the end. It is by registered voters, but they assume that a very high percentage of registered voters are also likely voters (92%! that should be a huge clue about just how crappy this poll is).
Here is the breakdown:
R 32.4% (89-7 for McCain)
D 38.3% (91-5 for Obama)
I 29.3% (51-33 for Obama this is the number that looks especially nuts to me)
Quick observations: they are skewing this poll by undersampling Republicans by 3-5 points and also assuming an Independent electorate that is 20% more Democratic than the last two Presidential elections. This is very similar to what CBS did in their last poll.
I just checked my chart and confirmed that from 1972 to 2006, the Dems were as high as +8 once with Independents: in 1996. Since then, they were +2 Bush in 2000 and +1 Kerry in 2004.
Two more important details. First, it assumes that turnout will be a whopping 80 percent of voting age population (2,382 LVs in a sample of 3,016 adults). Again, we havent even hit the 60% level (Gallups current projection) in any election since 1968.
Second, and equally ridiculous, it assumes that 92 percent of registered voters will actually vote. Again, in 2004 the highest turnout election since 1968 only 70% of registered voters actually voted. Usually this number is in the mid to high 60s.
In sum, the poll is complete crap. I would totally dismiss it. And one other thing that is really starting to piss me off: Obama media and pundit pinheads using these fraudulent polls to skew Sarah Palin, who is the single best thing that the Repbulicans have going right now. I shudder to think where McCain would be today without her.
Thanks for that research. Very helpful
Thanks. If you want me to add you to my informal poll wonk ping list, let me know. Atlhough I am starting to get more than a little weary of debunking one faux poll after another. :)
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