If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.
Posted on 09/20/2008 2:15:00 PM PDT by Ravi
Interview dates: September 16-19, 2008
Sample size: 600 likely voters
Margin of error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time
Question wording and responses:
If the general election were being held today between John McCain for president and Sarah Palin for vice president, the Republicans, and Barack Obama for president and Joe Biden for vice president, the Democrats, for whom would you vote - McCain and Palin, Obama and Biden (names rotated), or someone else?
(Excerpt) Read more at americanresearchgroup.com ...
I think that Palin truly scares a lot of people who live in the dense urban areas of the country. Thus, the cities are swinging heavily to Obama.
But the small town people are really taking a liking to Palin. Thus the rural areas are swinging havily to McCain.
The suburban people will be where the battle is taking place. In California and the Northeast, they seem to be swinging towards Obama. In the Midwest and Rust Belt, they seem to be swinging towards McCain.
Therefore, McCain is losing ground in the National polls (lots of people living in the big cities), but the State to State polls are showing smaller swings or even opposite movement.
Don’t get me wrong, the National polls are important at this point, because they show National trends. But the State polls will get more and more important every day.
Watch where the campaigns are spending ad money and you will see what their internals are saying.
1) Registered voters are slanted by +2 to the Dems; "Adults" +2 more to Dems. Gallup is a REGISTERED voter poll while this is a LIKELY voter poll, so McCain has lost minimal 'ground' when you compare apples to apples.
2) State polls inevitably TRAIL national polls by about a week. Don't know why, but it's a fact. If the national polls this week have Obama up, watch for state polls to catch up. I expect MI will shift slightly in Obama's favor in the next week. But then if McCain gains nationally, it will NOT be reflected back in the state polls for another week or 10 days.
FYI: In 2004, some "non-partisan" organization studied the major polls in both national and senate races for how close they came to the final. Marist (which had a gloomy McCain poll a few days ago) was so bad it wasn't even listed. The top three (in no particular order) were Battleground, Rasmussen, and Mason-Dixon for national, Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon and SurveyUSA for senate polls. I don't still have the link, but as I recall, Gallup was almost 3% off in favor of Kerry in 2004.
ARG was well down the line for senate polls. The top senate pollsters were Rasmussen, who was eight-for-eight with an error margin of 1.4% total. Mason-Dixon was 13/14 with a 1.5% total error margin; and SurveyUSA was 48 of 49 with just over 1.5% error margin. That's pretty damn good.
Not bad. Hope ARG’s right.
Wizbang has carved the Gallp Polls this week. Apparently , Gallup just mysteriously changed its party affliation to favot Obama this week from the previous weeks . There raw data does not match there results ! Gallup will not responded to the reason for the change ! I think I know why !
Thanks for the ping. This is the fourth poll in 24 hours now that has McCain within 1-2%. Two might be a coincidence, four is a trend.
I don’t believe the fraud is going to be as bad as people say.
Don’t forget you have to be pre-registered, illegals cannot get a driver’s license here, and voters must provide a picture ID to vote. This is the first presidential election where the new law applies.
Some pollsters are cranking up some weird results. Rasmussen has Obama leading ME by only 4. However, Rasmussen and ARG have Mac leading IN by only 2-3 points. If that is the case, then Mitch Daniels would be in trouble. According polls, Daniels is cruising to re-election as IN governor.
It could be that the Wall Street panic has scared people into the arms of the Dem party. It will be interesting to see if Rasmussen changes his partisan quotas in his tracking polls next week.
Still a toss up.
JoMa
Plus, Michigan loved Hillary, and Obama let the Democrats take their delegates away from them.
Now does this count the rampant Detroit voter fraud numbers?
I was up in Flint and a couple of the suburbs yesterday. I did not see one Obama sign there. I was not in the slums, but that whole city is Democrat. I did not see one sign.
If you would like to be added or dropped from the Michigan ping list, please freepmail me.
Michigan Democrats (or, really, those who think the Democrats will "save" them) may not vote for McCain/Palin, but I don't think they are thrilled to get out and vote for the 'Bid D' as they were in the past.
Pray for rain/snow in Michigan on Election Day!
How many of that is ACORN types?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.