Posted on 09/22/2008 7:22:03 AM PDT by jmaroneps37
I’m beginning to think the political world has been “punked” by the guys at Insider Advantage/Poll Position (IA/PP)
Yes I cherry picked this poll, but as you will note it is well deserved. See for yourself.
From Nevada a IA/PP Sept 11 poll reported John McCain winning the Black vote. I could stop there, but there is more. IA/PP says McCain gets a stunning SEVENTY THREE percent of Nevada’s 7% Black vote. From there, the poll of 518 Likely Voters reports McCain losing men 46/44, but winning 46/45 overall.
An IA/PP Virginia poll of 518 likely voters reported on Sept. 11, reported McCain losing Blacks 19/75 (no problem there) but also losing Hispanics 6/94. The Republican candidate is doing 19 points worse with Hispanics and getting three times as many Blacks as Hispanic voters?
From a Colorado poll of 508 likely votes published on Sept. 18, IA/PP reported McCain losing males 50/42. Colorado is 37% White males a group that gave George Bush 58% in 2004. National polls have McCain up 53/40 with White males. Since there are just 4% Blacks and 8% Hispanics in Colorado this is a very strange result.
A September 11, poll of 503 LVs in Michigan reporting McCain up 45/44 had him winning the 18-29s 50/37, but losing every other group by an average of 43/47. McCain also wins Hispanics 63/37, but next door in Ohio a poll of 503 LVs, released the same day, had McCain losing Hispanics 9/88.
In Ohio IA/PP has McCain up 48/47, although he wins Republicans 93/5 and gets 15% of Democrats.
In Florida, another IA/PP September 11 poll had McCain at 24/67 with Democrats and 85/11 with Republicans but had him winning just 50/42.
These are the internals you never see. Keep this in mind as you review poll headlines.
Sounds to me like they switched the numbers on that one.
These #’s are all over the spectrum. Appears to me nothing but sorcery and pulling crap directly out of their a@@es.
One of the better descriptions of what is called polling I've ever seen. Crude, but accurate.
I think what is happening is that most of the pollsters are adjusting for party ID, and in the process, screwing up the other numbers.
The real problem is that their party ID numbers are unrealistic, and this is throwing off their top line numbers.
Just released—Rasmussen has BO by 1 nationally and Battleground has McCain up by 1. I think BO’s hype has died off again and he and his cronies are being tied into the financial mess. It also does not hurt that Palin is drawing crowds of 60,000.
My concern is the lack of hardline phone access for younger voters. Do these pollsters contact cell users?
Yes they do. But this argument has been used for the last two elections. Don’t you remember the pollsters saying that the Kerry vote was being undervalued because of cell phones?
There will be two camps of Obama supporters November 5th. One is those who like the 9/11 conspiracy theorists believe a sure election has been stolen from them and the other is the MSM and Obama apparatchiks. They known deep down inside they never really had a chance but like a wishing your team could come back from 13-2 with 2 out in the bottom of the ninth they never REALLY thought it would happen. The Bradley effect is real and Obama’s demographic has been proven to just not come out to vote with the piss and vinegar they seem to have earlier in the campaign season. It’s just reality and not wishful thinking. Now if this were Hillary on the top of the ticket I would not be so bullish on McCain but this economic crisis in the end will prove the nail in the coffin.
American in the end in overwhelming numbers will want a grown up in the Whitehouse not the head Camp Counselor or the Recycling Camp at Lake Woebegone. Listen to Obama’s muddling non- answer deer in the headlights look when 60 minutes ask him for specifics on the Wall Street crisis. It was all about fairness, economic justice. I think America is had it with this mumbler and his class warfare crappola. One November 4th we will speak and tell this mouth breather..”STFU you babbling mumbling communist sock puppet”.
Ed Morrisey at Hot Air joked that these voters with cell phones are the same as other voters with cell phones, except they don’t vote.
And many can’t because they are convicted felons.
The fire chief reported the crowd was 70,0000 there for palin.
The 60,000 number is being “created” in order to keep her rally not larger thank barakopolis.
“One of the better descriptions of what is called polling I’ve ever seen. Crude, but accurate.”
We Engineers tend to be that way..... both crude and accurate.
young people with cell phones seem to move a lot and not pay attention to elections......they would have to re-register with each move and that ain’t happening....at least not the young ones I know.
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The interesting thing about that is that Obama is going down even though Rassmussen raised the number to dems he polled last week. So even with higher number of dems in his polling mix Obama is falling.
You are correct! Wait till after we get polling from the weekdays and not mainly from weekends. Also, I think McCain will crush him this week in the debate, if he does just half as good as he did at Saddleback(sp).
You have to understand that the Democrat voters for Obama will be voting multiple times on November 4th as well as sending in multiple absentee ballots.
Man, I dont like that phonebank thing. In a perfect world, it’s great but I can see that being abused.
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